For the second week in a row, most of the favorites won last week. There were some close calls and a bunch of games went down to the wire, but the only thing that matters in this game is survival, so those who had the Cowboys or Cardinals are feeling pretty good despite the sweat.
In my pool, 27 were eliminated. Steelers and Vikings were the common losers. Not sure why anyone would have taken either of those last week. Alas, of the original 451 entrants, 391 remain (86.7 percent).
On to Week 3.
Those unfamiliar with our strategy should start by reading here and here, or for a more concise explanation, read Week 1's article.
Ownership percentages below come from Yahoo. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BILLS | Dolphins | 32.5% | 687.5 | 87.3% | 4.12 |
| SEAHAWKS | Saints | 20.4% | 355 | 78.0% | 4.48 |
| Packers | BROWNS | 16.7% | 375 | 78.9% | 3.52 |
| BUCCANEERS | Jets | 8.7% | 292.5 | 74.5% | 2.21 |
| Chiefs | GIANTS | 7.4% | 267.5 | 72.8% | 2.02 |
| Colts | TITANS | 4.4% | 190 | 65.5% | 1.51 |
| Falcons | PANTHERS | 4.1% | 255 | 71.8% | 1.15 |
| COMMANDERS | Raiders | 1.1% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 0.41 |
| Cowboys | BEARS | 0.7% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.35 |
| EAGLES | Rams | 0.7% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 0.27 |
| VIKINGS | Bengals | 0.7% | 142.5 | 58.8% | 0.29 |
| Steelers | PATRIOTS | 0.7% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.31 |
| 49ERS | Cardinals | 0.4% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.17 |
| RAVENS | Lions | 0.2% | 225 |
For the second week in a row, most of the favorites won last week. There were some close calls and a bunch of games went down to the wire, but the only thing that matters in this game is survival, so those who had the Cowboys or Cardinals are feeling pretty good despite the sweat.
In my pool, 27 were eliminated. Steelers and Vikings were the common losers. Not sure why anyone would have taken either of those last week. Alas, of the original 451 entrants, 391 remain (86.7 percent).
On to Week 3.
Those unfamiliar with our strategy should start by reading here and here, or for a more concise explanation, read Week 1's article.
Ownership percentages below come from Yahoo. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BILLS | Dolphins | 32.5% | 687.5 | 87.3% | 4.12 |
| SEAHAWKS | Saints | 20.4% | 355 | 78.0% | 4.48 |
| Packers | BROWNS | 16.7% | 375 | 78.9% | 3.52 |
| BUCCANEERS | Jets | 8.7% | 292.5 | 74.5% | 2.21 |
| Chiefs | GIANTS | 7.4% | 267.5 | 72.8% | 2.02 |
| Colts | TITANS | 4.4% | 190 | 65.5% | 1.51 |
| Falcons | PANTHERS | 4.1% | 255 | 71.8% | 1.15 |
| COMMANDERS | Raiders | 1.1% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 0.41 |
| Cowboys | BEARS | 0.7% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.35 |
| EAGLES | Rams | 0.7% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 0.27 |
| VIKINGS | Bengals | 0.7% | 142.5 | 58.8% | 0.29 |
| Steelers | PATRIOTS | 0.7% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.31 |
| 49ERS | Cardinals | 0.4% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.17 |
| RAVENS | Lions | 0.2% | 225 | 69.2% | 0.05 |
| CHARGERS | Broncos | 0.2% | 147.5 | 59.6% | 0.06 |
| Texans | JAGUARS | 0.1% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.04 |
Like last week, there is no pot-odds play for Week 3. There are three fairly strong options — Bills, Packers, Seahawks — and then some secondary choices. At this point, though, no one should be forced to choose from too far down the list.
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MY PICKS
Buffalo Bills
The Bills are not only at home this week, but they get a reeling Dolphins team whose QB looks broken and whose defense can't stop anybody. Excluding two opponent kneeldowns, Miami has allowed scores on 13 of 15 drives this season. The only reason not to take the Bills this week is to save them for later in the season, but we frown on that strategy.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers look like a Super Bowl contender. The Browns look like ... the Browns. The only drawback, maybe, is the Packers are on the road.
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle's defense is playing at a high level. The Seahawks lead the league in QB pressure percentage — 49.4 percent (i.e., pressure on nearly half of all dropbacks) — while blitzing at the league's second-lowest rate (13.0 percent). The front four is getting it done. The Saints put up a fight last week against the injury-riddled 49ers. They've been close in the final minutes of both their losses but end up beating themselves. It could be a long day for Spencer Rattler.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
For the second week in a row, the Bucs pulled out a comeback road win. Now in their home opener they face a Jets team that could be without the concussed Justin Fields. This looks like a pretty safe bet if QB Tyrod Taylor plays for the Jets. Heat and humidity could be a factor too. Check our NFL weather report.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons shouldn't have much trouble with the Panthers. Atlanta is winning with defense, and that's bad news for Bryce Young (despite his three-TD second half last week).
NOTABLE OMISSION
Kansas City Chiefs
Picking the Chiefs this week is a vote for narrative — the Chiefs can't(!) fall to 0-3 and the Giants are a disaster. Would an upset really be that shocking? The Chiefs better hope that Xavier Worthy returns from injury because Mahomes doesn't have any good options aside from him (assuming he's healthy). Travis Kelce looks old and slow, Hollywood Brown looks like Van Nuys Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster looks like, well, JuJu. There are too many good options this week to go with the Chiefs.
