Garrett Wilson

Wilson is a king without a crown, viewed by many as a top wide receiver despite not quite having the stats to back it up. That's probably fair, for the most part, as he's passed both the eye test and the target dominance test since the Jets drafted him 10th overall in 2022. His 4.38 40 time translates to the field, and Wilson is tougher and more physical than you'd expect of a guy who measured just 6-0. 183, at the combine (he's now listed at 192 pounds). He played every game his first two seasons and topped 1,000 yards both years, but the efficiency numbers went from poor in 2022 (56.5 percent catch rate, 7.5 YPT) to downright awful in 2023 (56.5 percent, 6.2 YPT), essentially following the same path as the Jets' QB play and offense overall. Zach Wilson was a big part of that problem, though Wilson's per-route/game production was no better with the cavalcade of backups he played with (Joe Flacco, Mike White, Trevor Siemian, Tim Boyle). Even the 40-year-old, post-Achilles-tear version of Aaron Rodgers should be easily the best QB that Wilson has experienced since putting up 1,058 yards and 12 TDs in 11 games his final season at Ohio State while catching passes from C.J. Stroud. The Jets' offseason moves could also help, as they brought in three big-name OTs (Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses, rookie Ola Fashanu) but are relying on ACL rehabee Mike Williams and third-round pick Malachi Corley as the complementary WRs. The crux of the plan seems to be better blocking and better QB play, in conjunction with huge years from Wilson and RB Breece Hall.

Wilson was arguably the best wide receiver in 2022 from yet another strong rookie class, rivaled statistically by only college teammate Chris Olave, who also topped 1,000 yards in the confines of a substandard offense. Both now get QB upgrades, with the Jets finally completing a much-discussed trade for Aaron Rodgers in late April. Given his draft status and impressive rookie year, Wilson is locked in as the Jets' top receiver even after the team added friend-of-Rodgers Allen Lazard. The new addition came at the expense of Elijah Moore, whose standout 2021 rookie season was followed by a 2022 bust and a 2023 trade to Cleveland. Wilson, the 10th overall pick last spring, is highly unlikely to traverse the same path as Moore, coming off a rookie campaign with 1,103 yards and a 25 percent target share in 17 games while catching passes from Joe Flacco, Mike White and Zach Wilson. The upgrade to even a post-prime version of Rodgers sets up Wilson for big things in Year 2.

Rookie wideouts have been responsible for some big fantasy seasons recently, but Wilson faces more of an uphill climb than the typical first-round pick, joining a team with a crowded WR room and an inaccurate, young quarterback. The hope is that Zach Wilson can be Josh Allen 2.0, and the Jets front office did its part to nudge the dream (fantasy?) toward reality this offseason, taking Wilson at 10th overall and RB Breece Hall at No. 36. They also re-signed Braxton Berrios, who may be limited to the No. 4 role if Wilson, Elijah Moore and Corey Davis stay healthy. Moore is the stronger breakout candidate following a big finish to his own rookie season, but it shouldn't shock anyone if Wilson ends up the alpha instead. He was good enough to earn playing time at OSU as a true freshman, notching 430 yards and five TDs, before cranking it up to average 93.7 receiving yards per game between his sophomore and junior seasons. His numbers were quite similar to those of OSU teammate Chris Olave, who went 11th overall to the Saints this April, and both ran sub-4.4 40-yard dashes at the combine as well. Wilson's 4.38 speed might leave him a half step behind Moore (4.35), but it should also put him a step ahead of most NFL defensive backs.