Mitchell Trubisky

Trubisky is back with the Bills after a two-year hiatus in Pittsburgh. After spending 2021 as Josh Allen’s backup, Trubisky left for the Steelers, but he wasn’t good enough to hold off Kenny Pickett nor even Mason Rudolph. His 12-game run in Pittsburgh ended with eight TD passes and 10 interceptions with a 6.6 YPA. The only way he’ll see the field in Buffalo is if Allen is injured, of course. Trubisky has a big arm, but accuracy is not his strong suit. And while he was a running threat his first four years in Chicago, he’s averaged just 2.4 yards per rush the last three years. With Buffalo’s thin receiver room outside of rookie Keon Coleman, Trubisky wouldn’t seem to have much upside in a game-manager role should he take the field.

Trubisky served as the Steelers' Week 1 starter in 2022 but was replaced by Kenny Pickett during the team's matchup against the Jets in Week 4. Trubisky filled in for Pickett at times down the stretch, but the 2017 first-round pick appeared in just seven games and will serve as a backup to begin the 2023 campaign. Trubisky completed 65 percent of his passes for 1,252 yards, four touchdowns and five interceptions while rushing 19 times for 38 yards and two touchdowns last season and is unlikely to be much of a factor in the first season of his two-year extension with the Steelers, as long as Pickett remains healthy.

Last we saw Trubisky he had played his way out of Chicago, benched for Nick Foles in 2020. After a gap year in Buffalo as Josh Allen's backup (one INT on eight attempts), Trubisky signed with Pittsburgh in March to replace the retired Ben Roethlisberger. But then the Steelers drafted Kenny Pickett in the first round, so Trubisky might be on the bench once again. Trubisky has a strong arm, but his deep-ball accuracy is a problem. His career completion rate on attempts of 20-plus yards is 31.3 percent - 43rd of 50 qualified QBs since 2017. The Steelers have quality skill players, as Diontae Johnson is the No. 1 receiver, Chase Claypool is at least a useful deep threat and TE Pat Freiermuth is an emerging red-zone target. But whoever is under center likely will manage a run-first offense behind RB Najee Harris, should things go according to plan for Mike Tomlin. If it's Trubisky, as expected to begin the season, he'll need to improve his accuracy, particularly downfield, given that the Steelers aren't likely to give him a ton of passing volume or many designed runs.

Trubisky's end in Chicago was made clear when the Bears declined his fifth-year option before training camp even started last year. Although he won the Week 1 starting job, he was in and out of the lineup (nine starts) and did nothing but cement his status as a draft bust (No. 2 pick in 2017). Trubisky's 67.0 completion percentage was a career high, but that was largely the product of short passes — his 7.7 average target depth was a career low and ranked 27th in the league. His bad pass percentage was 24.6, third highest in the league. And when he did go downfield, the results were not good. He completed only seven of his 30 attempts of 20-plus yards (23.3 percent, second lowest), as his 36.7 on-target percentage ranked 26th of 28 QBs with at least 30 attempts. Apparently unable to find a starting job in free agency, Trubisky signed a one-year deal to back up Josh Allen in Buffalo. Barring an Allen injury, Trubisky will have a one-year sabbatical to rehabilitate his game before he seeks a starting gig again next season. If he actually plays, he'll at least have better weapons around him than what he had in Chicago. That and his rushing ability might be enough to give him some value in two-QB leagues.

Trubisky's regression last year from a promising sophomore season was ugly. His YPA declined nearly a yard and a half to 6.1 - a half yard less even than his rookie mark. His average depth of target dropped from 9.7 yards (4th) to 8.3 yards (20th), while his 8.8 YPA on attempts longer than 20 yards ranked 29th. And despite nearly 100 more attempts, he threw seven fewer TD passes. Trubisky's rushing even took a sharp decline, dropping from 421 to 193 yards. So, it wasn't surprising when the Bears declined his fifth-year option and traded for Nick Foles to compete for the starting job. Trubisky won the job for Week 1, but he'll likely be looking over his shoulder all season. The Bears did little to improve a below-average offensive line, only adding free-agent Germain Ifedi, a first-round bust in Seattle. Allen Robinson is the only dependable playmaker to target downfield. Trubisky's fantasy advantage over Foles is his rushing production, but if that doesn't bounce back, then what? The Bears are in win-now mode, and this likely Trubisky's last shot to live up to his lofty draft status, with Chicago at least.

Trubisky took big strides in his development last season, increasing his completion rate by more than seven percentage points from his rookie year (to 66.6) and his YPA by nearly a full yard (to 7.4) as he led the Bears to their first division title since 2010. His passer rating improved by 17.9 points from his rookie season, the largest increase in the NFL among qualified quarterbacks. It helped that first-year coach Matt Nagy actually let Trubisky throw downfield, unlike the previous regime. Trubisky's average depth of target was 9.7 yards, fourth in the NFL, and his 10 completions of 40-plus yards ranked sixth. He has room to grow with his downfield passing, though. On attempts longer than 20 yards, his YPA was 11.4 (22nd) and he completed only 32.3 percent (22nd). Trubisky was also maddeningly inconsistent. After starting the year with two touchdown passes in three games, he struck for six in Week 4. The next few weeks were productive, but in his final seven games he failed to top 200 yards passing four times, and had just five touchdown passes in his last five games. Another stride forward in his second season in Nagy's offense would see Trubisky knocking on the top-10 fantasy QB door, especially considering how his mobility pads his fantasy stats (421 rush yards, three touchdowns last season). And his second year with top wideout Allen Robinson should mean continued improvement for both. But he also needs a healthy receiving corps. Robinson missed three games last year, and second-year receiver Anthony Miller and tight end Trey Burton are not expected to practice much this offseason while they recover from injuries. The Bears hope to have the whole gang healthy for the start of training camp as they embark on Year 2 under Nagy.

Drafted second overall in 2017, Trubisky became the starter in Week 5 when the Bears could finally stomach Mike Glennon no more. But an absence of playmakers in the passing game and an ultra-conservative offense prevented the strong-armed Trubisky from showing much. The Bears attempted the fewest passes in the league (473), and when Trubisky did throw, he rarely attacked downfield. How rarely? Trubisky threw 23 passes beyond 20 yards - a mere 6.9 percent of his attempts. Among quarterbacks with at least 36 passes, only Glennon, natch, attempted a lower rate of downfield throws (4.3 percent on 140 attempts). The Bears also tied for the league low in red-zone trips with 33, which should change this year with the arrival of former Kansas City offensive coordinator Matt Nagy as the new head coach. With former Oregon coach Mark Helfrich hired as coordinator, Nagy promises to increase the offense's pace and, most important, attack downfield. He revamped the WR corps with 6-3 Allen Robinson, the speedy Taylor Gabriel and second-round pick Anthony Miller. Each comes with some risk, but it's still a major upgrade over last year's ineffective crew. The Bears also signed TE Trey Burton for the Travis Kelce role in Nagy's offense. Trubisky's mobility should give him a decent floor, and with a strong running game led by Jordan Howard, the young QB won't have to shoulder all the offensive load. Trubisky is well positioned for a big step forward in 2018.

Trubisky was a somewhat surprising pick at No. 2 overall in this year's draft as the Bears traded up to grab what they hope will be their quarterback of the future. The team is banking on his dual-threat skills, big arm and athleticism because the 6-3, 220, quarterback figures to face a steep learning curve. Trubisky was a one-year starter at North Carolina and lined up almost exclusively in shotgun in a spread system that did not require NFL-type reads. The Bears want to give him plenty of time to grow, as they signed Mike Glennon to start this season. But Glennon is nothing special, so it wouldn't be that surprising if Trubisky gets snaps this year. If he does, Trubisky's standout rushing skills could give him a decent floor even as he develops as a passer. His strong performance in the preseason might even allow him to threaten for the starting job early in the year.