PGA National used to be among the toughest courses on the PGA Tour, a watery final resting place for hundreds of golf balls every year. Things have changed of late, and it has gotten far easier.
But just as Shane Lowry was about to wrap up his first U.S.-based victory in more than a decade, PGA National showed its teeth. The Irishman found the water on Nos. 16 and 17, double-bogeying both holes to turn a three-shot lead with three holes to play into a stunning collapse and a victory for Nico Echavarria at the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches.
Lowry had a 96.7 percent chance of victory as he stood on the 16th tee, per Data Golf. That's the second of three holes that constitute the famed Bear Trap. The Bear Trap may not be what it once was, but apparently "Don't poke the bear" still applies.
Early candidate for collapse of the year from Lowry...
Was 96.7% to win standing on 16 tee... 0% just 30 minutes later. pic.twitter.com/TAseht0P1k
— data golf (@DataGolf) March 1, 2026
Echavarria won at 17-under-par, defeating Lowry and two others by two strokes. Lowry had gotten to 19-under before disaster struck.
"I'm obviously extremely disappointed," an ashen-looking Lowry said, standing before assembled reporters just moments after walking off 18. "I had the tournament in my hands, and I threw it away. What more can I say? That's twice this year now so far. I'm getting good at it.
"Yeah, look, what can I say? I played unbelievable all day, and one bad shot on 16 completely threw me for the last three holes. It's never happened to me before."
Lowry was referring to the Dubai Invitational in January, when he doubled the 18th to allow Nacho Elvira to emerge with a two-shot win on the DP World Tour.
The 38-year-old veteran is no stranger to pressure, of course. He sank the nerve-wracking six-foot Ryder Cup-winning putt to halve his match against Russell Henley last fall as Team Europe was dangerously close to gagging away a massive Sunday lead to Team USA.
"I said to Darren [Reynolds, his caddie], how do I feel like this now when I went through what I did last September in Bethpage and got through that fine?" Lowry said. "I just felt like it was weird out there; I just really -- yeah, just couldn't feel the club face the last three holes then after my tee shot on 16. It was strange."
The Bear Trap bites the leader 💦
Nursing a three shot lead, Shane Lowry's tee shot on 16 finds the water @The_Cognizant.
📺 NBC pic.twitter.com/GlNGyQHd9i
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 1, 2026
Lowry, who won the 2019 Open Championship, has not won on U.S. soil since the old WGC-Bridgestone Invitational in 2015. There was very little pressure at the Open at Royal Birkdale, where the local favorite ran away by six strokes.
While Lowry had a huge hand in Sunday's outcome, he couldn't have done it without Echavarria.
In winning for the third time on the PGA Tour, the Colombia native was close enough to take advantage of Lowry's collapse. He bogeyed only three holes all week, all on Friday. It seems an eternity since PGA National winners were in the single digits under par, but that is still some amazing golf by Echavarria.
After missing the cut in four of his first five starts of 2026, Echavarria played himself into the top 50 in the world rankings, into all the remaining Signature Events and into the Masters. He has another lofty goal on his mind -- this year's Presidents Cup at Medinah.
"To be honest, it's been in my mind for a long, long time," the 31-year-old Echavarria told reporters. "After I made the Olympics and after I made the Masters last year, I changed my screen saver on my phone to the Presidents Cup, the international logo. It's been there for a long time. I haven't changed it. It's been on my mind since a long time ago."
MONDAY BACKSPIN
Brooks Koepka
Somewhat lost amid the wild ending was Koepka turning in by far his best finish since returning to the PGA Tour.
He overcame an opening 74 filled with continued poor putting to not only make the cut but zoom up the leaderboard into a tie for ninth on the strength of a Sunday 65.
Koepka entered the week ranked second to last on Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting, and he was 111th in the 123-man field after the first round. But he wound up 15th in the field.
What changed?
"Just my hand position at setup," he said on Friday. "I was just cheating it. Changed the stroke a little bit. I'm not getting as handsy and I was cheating it by getting my hands back, and it just was creating an inconsistent feel, or where I thought it was taking off it wasn't."
Fast forward to Sunday: "Yeah, I played really solid the last three days. Didn't quite hit it that great yesterday, but just controlling shots I think a lot better. Putter obviously has gotten better. I haven't looked at the stats, but just that little adjustment Thursday night made a huge difference. Finally found some confidence. I think that's the one thing that's been lacking."
Other than on the greens, Koepka's game has been largely solid. For the week, he ranked 21st in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, 20th in Approach, 48th in Around-the-Green and T4 in greens in regulation.
We'll next see Koepka in two weeks at THE PLAYERS, opposite all the best players in the world.
After opening with a 3 over par 74 to be in danger of missing the cut, Brooks Koepka then shot rounds of 66, 69 and 65 to currently be inside the top 10 of the Cognizant Classic. It's his best finish on the PGA Tour since 2022.pic.twitter.com/rKezNSK0hl
— Flushing It (@flushingitgolf) March 1, 2026
Austin Smotherman
This was the finest week of Smotherman's career. He opened with a 62 and led for a good chunk of the tournament before ending in a three-way tie for second. That's his best finish in 82 career starts, which gives him a pretty plum assignment for his 83rd: this week's Signature Event at Bay Hill. Smotherman was one of four players who moved into the Bay Hill field via the Aon Next 10 or Swing 5 at the last minute, along with Echavarria, the next guy on the list and Keith Mitchell. They knocked out Haotong Li, Stephan Jaeger, Kevin Roy and Tony Finau.
Taylor Moore
Moore finished 121st in the standings last season and has had difficulty getting into fields. He will finish a lot higher in the standings this season. Moore, once a top-50 player in the OWGR who had fallen close to 200th, tied for second. Not only a huge payday but a berth in this week's Signature Event at Bay Hill. Moore had made the cut in both his prior starts at the Amex and Farmers, albeit without a high finish.
Ricky Castillo
Castillo closed last season with a solo third at The RSM Classic -- his best result on Tour -- and just missed the top 100 in the standings, finishing at 102nd. He made the cut in his first three starts this season and now adds another top-5 -- a tie for fifth. He's ranked top-50 on Tour in both SG: Off-the-Tee and Putting, and that's pretty darn good.
Nicolai Hojgaard
Hojgaard continued a great start to the season with a tie for sixth. It didn't look so great for two rounds, but a 66-65 weekend zoomed him up the leaderboard and into Bay Hill. Hojgaard finished T22 at the Farmers and T3 at Phoenix in his other two starts.
Keith Mitchell
Mitchell has been very busy. This was his sixth start, he's made every cut and added his best showing of the season with a tie for sixth. He also finished 11th at the Farmers. Mitchell is known for his iron play and his poor putting. So when he can get the ball rolling on the greens, good things usually happen. He ranked 21st in the Cognizant field in SG: Putting. Mitchell moved into the fifth slot in the Aon Swing 5 and into the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
William Mouw
After making the cut to start the season at the Sony, Mouw missed three cuts in a row. So his tie for sixth was most welcome, and very much needed. It wasn't enough to boost him into Bay Hill, though.
Max Homa
After opening with a 73, Homa shot three rounds in the 60s to notch his best result of 2026, a tie for 13th. Notably, he ranked 27th in driving accuracy and 13th in SG: Off-the-Tee. Driver has been the source of much of his trouble the past couple of years. Homa left PGA National and headed for his TGL match at night. Not too many doubleheaders in golf!
Max Homa with a flawless chip from the rough on 9. 🤌
📺 Golf Channel | @the_cognizant pic.twitter.com/vFQf14WRXQ
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) March 1, 2026
Jimmy Stanger
Stanger needed a good finish in the worst way. Instead, he finished in the worst way. After battling through an elbow injury last season and now making his first PGA Tour cut in two years, Stanger was in the top-10 late on Sunday. He proceeded to play the Bear Trap in 5-over -- bogey-bogey-triple bogey -- to plummet into a tie for 32nd. A very tough break.
MISSED CUTS
Michael Thorbjornsen, Luke Clanton, Gordon Sargent, Nick Dunlap, Adam Hadwin, Johnny Keefer. Thorbjornsen lost almost 2.4 strokes on approach and missed the cut by one. … Clanton, the sensation when he was still an amateur at Florida State, hasn't made a cut in four starts this season, and missed his final two of 2025. The same 0-for-4 start goes for Sargent, another 22-year-old former college standout. … Dunlap, who is also 22, continues to struggle, with one made cut in three starts. … Hadwin, now relegated to the Korn Ferry Tour, made his first PGA Tour start of the season. He was runner-up in his KFT opener earlier this season … Keefer was last year's KFT star and is now trying to find his footing in the top league. This was his first MC of the season in five starts, though he's still looking for a top-25.
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