Underdog PGA Draft Strategy: THE PLAYERS Championship

The best strategy and picks for Underdog PGA Drafts at THE PLAYERS Championship, including why Cullum Brownbridge expects Ricky Castillo to carry the momentum off his win into TPC Sawgrass.
Underdog PGA Draft Strategy: THE PLAYERS Championship

THE PLAYERS Championship

Purse: $25M
Winner's Share: $4.5M
FedEx Cup Points: 750 to the Winner
Location: Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
Course: TPC Sawgrass
Yardage: 7,352
Par: 72

Previous Winners

2025 – Rory McIlroy
2024 – Scottie Scheffler
2023 – Scottie Scheffler
2022 – Cameron Smith
2021 – Justin Thomas
2020 – No tournament
2019 – Rory McIlroy
2018 – Webb Simpson
2017 – Si Woo Kim
2016 – Jason Day
2015 – Rickie Fowler

Recap: The Arnold Palmer Invitational and Puerto Rico Open

For the second week in a row, what looked to be a dominant lead evaporated toward the tail end of the final round.

The 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational was Daniel Berger's to lose after he opened the tournament with a spectacular nine-under 63 first round. He was up by five strokes heading into the turn but wasn't able to fend off a surging Akshay Bhatia. Berger was at the top of the leaderboard through the first 70 holes of the tournament, but his bogey on the par-3 17th was enough for Bhatia to tie things up at 15-under. The duo needed to play the par-4 18th twice to settle the score, and Bhatia took advantage of Berger's three-putt bogey on the first playoff hole to come away with the third PGA Tour victory of his career.

The field was loaded with talent at Bay Hill for the third Signature Event of the year. Collin Morikawa's solo fifth extended his streak of top-10 finishes to three tournaments. That streak started with his victory at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and following his performance at the API, Morikawa now sits at the top of the FedExCup standings. Ludvig Aberg and Cameron Young each rode strong opening rounds and solid scores over the weekend to both crack the top-5. Rickie Fowler grabbed his first top-10 finish of the season at Bay Hill, where he's now made the cut in 13 of 14 appearances. We saw the debut of Justin Thomas after recovering from back surgery in the fall, but he was rusty at the API, failing to make the cut after posting a 79-79 scorecard. Meanwhile, Chris Gotterup -- a two-time winner this year -- fell out of the top-10 of the leaderboard after going four-over across the final three holes (including a double-bogey on the par-3 17th). 

The two biggest disappointments came from the two golfers at the top of the OWGR; Rory McIlroy was forced to withdraw before the third round after tweaking his back on the driving range, putting his status for THE PLAYERS Championship up in the air. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler -- two weeks after his 18-tournament streak of finishing in the top-10 halted at The Genesis Invitational -- had a Jekyll and Hyde performance at the API, highlighted by his two double bogeys on the par-4 18th hole in each of the final two rounds (honorable mention; the par-3 14th, when his tee shot got stuck in a palm tree, resulting in a drop shot). 

Down at Grand Reserve Golf Club in Rio Grande, 25-year-old American Ricky Castillo captured his first career PGA Tour victory after outlasting Chandler Blanchet by one stroke at the Puerto Rico Open. Meanwhile, 18-year-old phenom Blades Brown rounded out the top-3, and his start to the 2026 season could result in him seeing less time on the Korn Ferry and more time in PGA Tour events. 

Tournament Preview: THE PLAYERS Championship 

There's been plenty of discussion around whether THE PLAYERS should be added as "the fifth major." Regardless of how you feel about it, there's no question that this tournament is one that every golfer wants to win. The $25 million prize pool is the largest outside of the TOUR Championship, and a victory at TPC Sawgrass would net the winner a cool $4.5 million.

Part of the discussion around labelling THE PLAYERS as a fifth major is because of TPC Sawgrass. It's one of the most iconic courses on the PGA Tour, and the par-3 17th hole and its island green stands out as one of, if not the most famous holes in golf. There's no chipping area or bunker there to save you; find the green or find the water. The five-hole stretch to close the back nine features the two hardest holes from last year's event; the 485-yard 14th ranking, followed closely by the 462-yard 18th. The greens are slightly more forgiving than Bay Hill, but just like last week, avoiding the rough will be paramount. Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass are similar enough that the keys to success are the same; accuracy off the tee, a clean approach game, and scoring low on the par-5's.

McIlroy's health is the biggest question marks heading into this week, and that will impact drafting strategy. Scheffler-McIlroy has been the typical one-two draft order for Underdog's contest, but that would change if the 36-year-old Northern Irishman withdraws. Here's hoping he'll be cleared to defend his 2025 title.

Underdog Contest Overview

Underdog hosts drafts every week at three buy-in amounts; The Par 3 at $3, the featured draft at $10, and "The Sandbagger" at $100. Each entrant will be paired up with five other participants and participate in a six-man snake draft of teams made up of six players (36 total selections), with each selection on a 30-second timer. For example, the person with the first overall pick and lucky enough to get Scheffler (unless you like to live dangerously) will have to wait until 2.6 and 3.1 to make their next selections. Points are allocated to golfers based on their performance on every hole, with bonus points available for golfers who make consecutive birdies or finish a round bogey free.

First Two Rounds

Collin Morikawa (2.3 Average Draft Position)

McIlroy (3.3) does not have the second-lowest ADP behind Scheffler for the first time since this season. Taking McIlroy's spot behind Scheffler is Morikawa, whose victory at Pebble Beach almost a month ago was his first PGA Tour win since the ZOZO Championship in October of 2023. He followed that up with a T7 at The Genesis Invitational and a solo fifth last week at the API. Morikawa has been one of the best approach and off-the-tee players this season. He's also enjoyed recent success at TPC Sawgrass, finishing T10 at THE PLAYERS in 2025. 

Also of note; for the first time this season, Scheffler's ADP sits at 1.1 rather than 1.0. It seems that some early drafters holding the first-overall pick are fading the two-time PLAYERS champion (discretion is advised).

Si Woo Kim (6.5 ADP)

Kim had a steady performance at the API last week, finishing T13 and while ranking top-20 in SG: Off-the-Tee, SG: Approach and GIR. He struggled with his putter at Bay Hill, and that's been one of the weak points of his game this season (ranked 151st in SG: Putting), though the greens at TPC Sawgrass are slightly more manageable. In addition to his victory over Ian Poulter and Louis Oosthuizen in 2017, Kim has made the cut in every appearance at THE PLAYERS, including T6 in 2024 and T38 in 2025.

Min Woo Lee (9.8 ADP)

Lee was under-par in all four rounds at the API, which is impressive given that he opened the final round with four bogeys on the front nine. He finished T6 in Bay Hill and has gone T2-T12-T6 in each of his last three Tour outings, all Signature Events. Lee has been one of the best players on and around the green and off the tee, but a sharpened approach game is necessary at TPC Sawgrass. To his credit, Lee has made the cut in each of his three outings at THE PLAYERS, including a T6 in his debut in 2023 and T20 last year.

Middle-Round Value

Jake Knapp (15.7 ADP)

Knapp was another popular pick heading into last week's API, but he was forced to withdraw before the start of the tournament due to an illness. His ADP this noticeably lower than last week (8.5), so you can entertain "reaching" for Knapp in the second round. He's finished T11 or better in all five of his Tour appearances this season and T12 at THE PLAYERS in 2025, his second appearance at TPC Sawgrass. Knapp is second in SG: Total, third in bogey avoidance, fourth in SG: Putting, 11th in SG: Tee-to-Green and in the top-35 in SG: Approach and SG: Off-the-Tee this season.

Sepp Straka (17.4 ADP)

Straka's ADP is also lower than it was heading into the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week (24.3). He's coming off a T13 at the API (which would have been better had it not been for his four-over 76 score Sunday), and he's finished top-20 in three of his last four Tour outings (including T2 at Pebble Beach). Straka has done well recently at TPC Sawgrass, finishing T9 in 2022 and T16-T14 in 2024 and 2025, respectively. 

Robert MacIntyre (21.4 ADP)

I was surprised to see MacIntyre -- ranked eighth in the OWGR -- down in the 3rd/4th round range. His approach game this season (148th) has dipped since last year (40th), but MacIntyre ranks top-20 in both SG: Off-the-Tee and SG: Putting. He also ranks fourth in scrambling, which should help him get out of trouble should he find himself in it. He's finished top-25 in each of his last two Tour outings and ninth at THE PLAYERS last year after missing the cut in each of his prior two outings at TPC Sawgrass.

Late-Round Targets

Pierceson Coody (25.1 ADP)

Coody failed to make the cut at Bay Hill last week, largely due to his seven-over 79 opening round. It was his first missed cut of the season, but Coody is still worth a late-round look given his five top-20s through seven Tour events. That includes a T2 at the Farmers Insurance Open, T10 at the WM Phoenix Open and T16 at The Genesis. This week will be Coody's first appearance at THE PLAYERS, but he has the tools to succeed at TPC Sawgrass (eighth in SG: Off-the-Tee, ninth in GIR, 13th in par-5 scoring and 34th in SG: Approach).

Brooks Koepka (31.2 ADP)

Koepka's name inflated his ADP in each of his first two outings of the season, but the five-time major champion is coming off a T9 at the Cognizant Classic two years ago. He's been fine off the tee and in his approach, but it was encouraging to see his putting game bounce back at PGA National two weeks ago. This weekend will be Koepka's eighth appearance at THE PLAYERS and first since 2022, when he missed the cut. Remember, Koepka is barred from Signature Events, so this weekend at TPC Sawgrass will be his first taste of a big-time event in 2026.  

Ricky Castillo (34.2 ADP)

Castillo captured his first PGA Tour victory last weekend at the Puerto Rico Classic. It was a testament to how far he's come since the end of last season, when he broke his four-event MC streak with a solo third at The RSM Classic in November. He's made the cut in all five of his Tour outings this season, and his solo fifth at the Cognizant Classic served as the backdrop in Puerto Rico two weeks later. Castillo missed the cut in his lone appearance at THE PLAYERS last year but will have momentum on his side. He ranks fifth in par-5 scoring and in the top-40 in SG: Off-the-Tee and SG: Putting this season.

For up-to-the-minute updates on injuries, tournament participation and overall golfer performance, head to RotoWire's latest golf news or follow @RotoWireGolf on X.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Cullum is a RotoWire contributor for the NFL, NBA, MLB and Golf. He is irrationally pessimistic about his favorite sports teams.
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