College Hockey Weekend Preview: Top-10 Matchups & Best Betting Picks
There's a phenomenal weekend of college hockey ahead with two top-10 matchups on the docket: one between Wisconsin and Penn State and another between Western Michigan and Minnesota-Duluth. The action is heating up with a logjam on the bubble of the NPI rankings to determine the tournament field in March, so every game matters. Let's take a look at some strong picks for this weekend's betting market.
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No. 12 Cornell Big Red vs. No. 10 Dartmouth Big Green
If the NCAA Tournament started today, the ECAC would have three teams in the field, including both of these squads, with Quinnipiac being the other. These two teams faced off back in early November with Dartmouth winning 2-1 on their home ice. Cornell will host this game in Ithaca, NY. While both of these teams have been impressive and have been ranked accordingly, neither one has a standout non-conference win. Cornell's November win over No. 28 UMass is perhaps its most noteworthy win, while Dartmouth did take down No. 23 Arizona State in late December.
Regardless, this should be an excellent game, as Dartmouth ranks fourth with 3.9 goals per game compared to Cornell's 3.4 mark (14th). Defense and goaltending have been a strong suit for each side, with Cornell allowing 1.9 goals per game (second) and Dartmouth giving up 2.0 (third). Dartmouth has struggled a bit on the road with a 3-3-0 record, and while having a star like Hayden Stavroff helps, the sophomore has struggled with just two points over four games against top-25 opponents.
I give Cornell the home edge in this game, and I would probably sprinkle half a unit on the spread as well.
Cornell ML (-175 DraftKings)
Cornell -1.5 (+145 DraftKings)
Under 5.5 Goals (-115 DraftKings)
No. 11 Providence Friars vs. No. 18 Boston University Terriers
It's somewhat baffling to me that the Friars are getting no respect at home here. They're coming off back-to-back sweeps of Maine and Boston College, averaging 4.3 goals per game in that stretch. Meanwhile, the Terriers split their last two conference series against UMass and UMass-Lowell, and they will be without Sacha Boisvert, who ranks third on the team with 14 points, due to a fighting penalty he took last weekend. BU goalie Mikhael Yegorov can certainly steal a game, but the Friars shouldn't be listed as underdogs here.
Providence ML (-105 DraftKings)
Under 5.5 Goals (-100 DraftKings)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
The Fighting Irish have lost nine straight games, and they lost their last eight by at least three goals each time. Their schedule has been daunting, however, as they have faced a top-10 team in each of those past eight games. Still, they rank 47th (out of 63) with 2.5 goals per game while giving up 4.3 goals per game – second-highest in the nation.
Ohio State hasn't done much better this season with a 7-12-1 record, but they have signature wins against No. 2 Michigan State and No. 5 Wisconsin, both aided by strong goaltending efforts. They have showcased a stronger offense; however, ranking 28th with 3.0 goals per game. Neither of these teams can truly score at a high rate, and while Notre Dame's Nicholas Kempf is probably the better goaltender, Ohio State is far more talented outside up and down the lineup, giving them the edge in this must-win game to keep their tournament hopes alive.
Ohio State ML (-166 DraftKings)
Under 6.5 (-120 DraftKings)
No. 7 Minnesota Duluth Bulldogs vs. No. 3 Western Michigan Broncos
Duluth goaltender Adam Gajan was selected for the Slovakian Olympic Team, and while he has shown some struggles lately, that's quite the honor for the sophomore netminder, who has a .911 save percentage this year. The Bulldogs just split with a rising St. Cloud State, and they're tied for eighth with 3.5 goals per game. However, they may be leaning slightly too much on high shooting percentages, as they are just 19th with a 53.2 Corsi For percentage, which tracks high-percentage opportunities.
The Broncos sit fifth with a 56.9 Corsi For percentage, and they have won seven straight games, including a sweep of No. 9 Denver and a neutral-site win over No. 5 Wisconsin. In that stretch, they have scored 4.6 goals per game while giving up just 2.0 goals per game. Still, going on the road for the second straight weekend to face the Bulldogs won't be a simple task. The Bulldogs have lost just one Friday night game all season, and they have yet to get swept. You're getting good odds on them here, so betting them seems wise with a good chance of a split.
Minnesota Duluth ML (+124 DraftKings)
Under 6.5 Goals (-115 DraftKings)
No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 8 Penn State Nittany Lions
The Badgers were just swept at home by No. 2 Michigan State. They lost 4-3 the first night, and 4-1 the second night after backup goalie Eli Pulver gave up three goals on six shots in the first frame. They'll likely roll Daniel Hauser until he gives them a reason not to. It's unclear if center Gavin Morrissey (lower body) will return to the lineup after missing last Saturday's game, too. They were red-hot before the break and haven't quite found their rhythm yet, and being without their No. 1 center would be highly concerning.
The Nittany Lions are coming off back-to-back sweeps of Minnesota and Notre Dame, but they won just three of their previous eight games. They can score in bunches – they sit at eighth with 3.5 goals per game – but have struggled against strong defenses, as they scored just six goals over four games against Michigan State and Michigan. Wisconsin's defense is probably a tick below those two with Zach Schulz (leg) out for the season, but they're in a solid position despite their suspect penalty kill (79.7 percent).
Overall, this is a bet on Hauser and the Badgers to have a bounce-back performance. Penn State has more high-end skill, but the Badgers have deeper coffers. I don't think this game comes down to one player, but if Morrissey's able to suit up, I'm taking the Badgers ML because his addition makes the depth even stronger. Either way, I'm comfortable with the under.
Wisconsin ML (-115 DraftKings)
Under 6.5 (-130 DraftKings)
No. 9 Denver Pioneers vs. St. Cloud State Huskies
The Huskies aren't technically ranked yet, but they're just on the outside after splitting with Duluth last weekend and splitting with Denver in their last series of December. Despite having no true stars, they're a little top-heavy when it comes to scoring, featuring three players with 10-plus goals, while no other player has more than six. Still, they're fairly experienced and sturdy up and down the lineup, and goaltender Patriks Berzins has maintained a .915 save percentage through 12 games. They can essentially skate with anyone on any given night, which makes it odd that they're such massive underdogs, even against Denver.
The Pioneers are in a serious rut, posting a 1-5-1 record over the past seven games, including a loss to the Huskies. They have played against outstanding competition in that stretch, but it's a serious concern with just over a month left in the regular season. I have faith that David Carle will turn this around, but it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest to see the Huskies pull off a split here. It's worth taking the risk given the favorable odds.
St. Cloud ML (+270 DraftKings)
