This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
Top DFS Picks and Betting Strategies for UFC 315
The top UFC betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 315 card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
2025 Overall Picks: 128-54-1 ~ Dog Picks 21-13-1
Drake's Bet of the Week: Valentina Shevchenko +120
Bet of the Week Record: 9-5-1 +665
DFS Lock of the Week: Belal Muhammad - 12-1
Fanduel Captain: Saint-Denis/Muhammad
Belal Muhammad (24-3-0) v. Jack Della Maddalena (17-2-0)
Belal Muhammad (High-upside GPP/Cash play)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at Chicago Fight Team
- Record: 5 wins by KO/TKO, 1 by submission, 18 by decision
- Current UFC Welterweight Champion
Jack Della Maddalena (Mid-range GPP option)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at Scrappy MMA
- Record: 12 wins by KO/TKO, 2 by submission, 3 by decision
- Riding a 17-fight win streak
DFS Perspective: The welterweight title is on the line, and this one should be a war. Della Maddalena's crisp boxing and knockout power are a serious threat, but Belal's pressure and wrestling have shut down dangerous strikers before. Muhammad thrives in championship rounds, using his relentless cardio and grinding pace to wear down opponents. His edge on the mat is considerable, and if he can close the distance, he should be able to control Della Maddalena and rack up points with ground control. Both are strong GPP plays, but I lean toward the champ to retain.
UFC 315 Pick: Muhammad
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Valentina Shevchenko (24-4-1) v. Manon Fiorot (12-1-0)
Valentina Shevchenko (High-upside GPP/Cash play)
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Southpaw
- Trains at Tiger Muay Thai
- Record: 8 wins by KO/TKO, 7 by submission, 9 by decision
- Former UFC Flyweight Champion
Manon Fiorot (High-upside GPP play)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at Boxing Squad
- Record: 6 wins by KO/TKO, 0 by submission, 6 by decision
- Currently on a 10-fight win streak
DFS Perspective: This title fight is one of the most anticipated matchups on the card. Fiorot's rise through the division has been impressive, showcasing some of the cleanest striking and best takedown defense in the flyweight division. Her ability to maintain range and pick apart her opponents with volume is a problem for anyone she faces. However, Shevchenko is still one of the most complete fighters in women's MMA. Her experience in five-round fights, combined with her ability to mix in wrestling and clinch control, should serve her well here.
Fiorot will need to keep this fight standing and avoid the clinch exchanges where Shevchenko thrives. If Shevchenko is able to close the distance and get this fight to the ground, it's going to be a long night for Fiorot. While Fiorot has the skills to make this competitive, I still see Shevchenko utilizing her veteran savvy to retain the belt. Strong GPP play for both fighters, but I give the edge to Shevchenko in this one.
UFC 315 Pick: Shevchenko
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Jose Aldo (32-9-0) v. Aiemann Zahabi (12-2-0)
Jose Aldo (Mid-range Cash option)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at Nova União
- Record: 16 wins by KO/TKO, 2 by submission, 14 by decision
- Former UFC Featherweight Champion
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at Tristar Gym
- Record: 5 wins by KO/TKO, 3 by submission, 4 by decision
- Currently on a 5-fight win streak
DFS Perspective: Aldo's experience and technical striking should be too much for Zahabi to handle. The former champ has faced far tougher competition, and his ability to control range with leg kicks and clean boxing gives him the edge. Zahabi has some pop in his hands, but he's outclassed here. I expect Aldo to dictate the fight and either win convincingly on points or find a late finish.
UFC 315 Pick: Aldo
Alexa Grasso (16-4-1) v. Natalia Silva (18-5-1)
Alexa Grasso (Mid-range GPP option)
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at Lobo Gym MMA
- Record: 4 wins by KO/TKO, 2 by submission, 10 by decision
- Former UFC Flyweight Champion
Natalia Silva (High-upside GPP play)
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Southpaw
- Trains at Team Borracha
- Record: 5 wins by KO/TKO, 7 by submission, 5 by decision
- Riding a 12-fight win streak
DFS Perspective: This matchup between Grasso and Silva is one of the most intriguing on the card. Grasso's crisp boxing and championship experience make her a formidable opponent. However, Silva's dynamic striking and submission skills, combined with her current momentum, present a significant challenge. Expect a competitive bout with potential for high DFS scoring, especially if Silva can capitalize on her finishing abilities.
UFC 315 Pick: Silva
Benoit Saint-Denis (13-3-0) v. Kyle Prepolec (18-8-0)
Benoit Saint-Denis (High-upside GPP/Cash play)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Southpaw
- Trains at Venum Training Camp
- Record: 4 wins by KO/TKO, 9 by submission, 0 by decision
- Notable victories over Matt Frevola, Thiago Moisés, and Ismael Bonfim
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at Maximum Training Centre
- Record: 10 wins by KO/TKO, 4 by submission, 4 by decision
- Returning to the UFC after a 0-2 stint in 2019
DFS Perspective: This is Benoit Saint-Denis' fight to lose. Prepolec stepping in on short notice is a huge disadvantage, and BSD's relentless grappling and suffocating top control should be too much for him. Being the most expensive fighter on the slate, he'll need a dominant performance to pay off his salary. Prepolec's only chance is to catch BSD early, but the gap in skill and preparation makes that unlikely.
UFC 315 Pick: Saint-Denis
Mike Malott (11-2-1) v. Charles Radtke (10-4-0)
Mike Malott (High-upside GPP play)
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at Niagara Top Team
- Record: 4 wins by KO/TKO, 6 by submission, 1 by decision
- Two-time UFC Performance of the Night winner
Charlie Radtke (Mid-range GPP option)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Fights out of Salem, WI
- Record: 5 wins by KO/TKO, 2 by submission, 3 by decision
- Known for aggressive striking and knockout power
DFS Perspective: Expect fireworks in this matchup. Malott's well-rounded arsenal gives him the edge, especially with his ability to find submissions in scrambles and capitalize on defensive lapses. His past performances have shown a knack for finishing fights early, making him a solid GPP and cash play. Radtke isn't without his own dangers, though. His aggressive style and knockout power mean Malott can't afford to get reckless. This is a fight that should see plenty of back-and-forth action, with Malott likely getting his hand raised if he stays composed.
UFC 315 Pick: Malott
Jessica Andrade (26-13-0) v. Jasmine Jasudavicius (13-3-0)
- Height: 5'1" – Reach: 62" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at GAEA Project
- Record: 10 wins by KO/TKO, 8 by submission, 8 by decision
- Former UFC Strawweight Champion
Jasmine Jasudavicius (Mid-range Cash play)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at Niagara Top Team
- Record: 2 wins by KO/TKO, 3 by submission, 8 by decision
- Known for relentless wrestling and top control
DFS Perspective: While Andrade has the edge in striking, Jasudavicius's superior wrestling and ability to control opponents on the mat should allow her to dictate the pace and location of the fight. If she can avoid Andrade's power shots and implement her grappling game, Jasudavicius is a strong cash play with an excellent floor and ceiling.
UFC 315 Pick: Jasudavicius
Modestas Bukauskas (17-6-0) v. Ion Cutelaba (19-10-1)
Modestas Bukauskas (Mid-range Cash option)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at Gintas Combat
- Record: 17 wins by KO/TKO, 3 by submission, 4 by decision
- Former Cage Warriors Light Heavyweight Champion
Ion Cutelaba (High-upside GPP play)
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at Xtreme Couture
- Record: 13 wins by KO/TKO, 3 by submission, 3 by decision
- Known for explosive starts and early finishes
DFS Perspective: Bukauskas' technical striking and ability to manage distance could neutralize Cutelaba's aggressive approach. His composure under pressure and experience against high-level competition make him a solid cash option. However, Cutelaba's early aggression and finishing power cannot be overlooked, making this fight a viable target for both sides in DFS.
UFC 315 Pick: Bukauskas
Navajo Stirling (6-0-0) v. Ivan Erslan (14-4-0)
Navajo Stirling (High-upside GPP play)
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 79" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at City Kickboxing
- Record: 4 wins by KO/TKO, 2 by decision
- Undefeated prospect known for forward pressure and high-volume striking
Ivan Erslan ( Mid-range GPP option)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at American Top Team Zagreb
- Record: 10 wins by KO/TKO, 1 by submission, 3 by decision
- Veteran with significant power and finishing ability
DFS Perspective: I lean toward Stirling in this matchup. His forward pressure and volume striking should overwhelm Erslan if he can avoid the big power shots. Stirling's technical edge and willingness to push the pace make him a strong GPP option. That said, this fight is still a great target for both sides in DFS due to the high likelihood of a finish.
UFC 315 Pick: Stirling
Marc-Andre Barriault (16-9-0) v. Bruno Silva (23-12-0)
Marc-Andre Barriault (Mid-range GPP option)
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at Kill Cliff FC
- Record: 16 wins by KO/TKO, 1 by submission, 5 by decision
- Former TKO Middleweight and Light Heavyweight Champion
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at Evolução Thai
- Record: 20 wins by KO/TKO, 3 by decision
- Former M-1 Global Middleweight Champion
DFS Perspective: Silva seems to be fading with each appearance, showing less resilience and durability than in his earlier days. Barriault's pace and power should wear Silva down over time, especially if he can push the action against the cage and work his volume striking. Barriault's ability to go three hard rounds while maintaining output makes him an intriguing GPP option. If Silva can't find the knockout shot early, it's hard to see him matching Barriault's pressure.
UFC 315 Pick: Barriault
Daniel Santos (11-2-0) v. Jeong Yeong Lee (11-2-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at Chute Boxe Diego Lima
- Record: 11 wins by KO/TKO, 3 by submission, 2 by decision
- Known for aggressive striking and relentless pressure
Jeong Yeong Lee (Mid-range GPP option)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at Korean Top Team
- Record: 9 wins by KO/TKO, 4 by submission, 1 by decision
- Known for explosive striking and finishing ability
DFS Perspective: I like Jeong Yeong Lee in this spot. His reach advantage and ability to work on the mat should give Santos problems. Santos is aggressive, but Lee's length and grappling edge make him the stronger GPP play if he can keep the distance and find takedowns.
UFC 315 Pick: Lee
Brad Katona (14-4-0) v. Bekzat Almakhan (11-2-0)
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 64" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at SBG Ireland
- 1 win by KO/TKO, 3 by submission, 10 by decision
- Former BRAVE CF Bantamweight Champion; two-time TUF winner
- Known for technical striking and grappling
Bekzat Almakhan (High-upside GPP/Cash play)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at Triumph Fights
- 9 wins by KO/TKO, 1 by submission, 1 by decision
- Known for explosive striking and finishing ability
DFS Perspective: I'm high on Almakhan in this spot. His explosive striking and finishing ability should be too much for Katona, who tends to rely on grinding decisions and technical exchanges. Almakhan's power is real, and he can end this early if he finds his range. Katona is durable but hittable, and that's a dangerous game against someone with Almakhan's knockout power.
UFC 315 Pick: Almakhan
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
