UFC 316 Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup
UFC 316 comes to us from Newark, New Jersey, on Saturday, featuring two title fights among a 13-fight card. We'll take a look at each bout across three platforms, including a former college wrestler making his UFC debut, and a hard-hitting welterweight who will look to create fireworks. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
UFC Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Kayla Harrison ($9,700)
The odds in this fight are so lopsided that it's easy to forget Julianna Pena won the title with a controversial split decision over Raquel Pennington late last year. With striking that can be charitably called rudimentary and legitimate concerns regarding her weight cut, there is a case to be made that Pena is tough enough to outlast the Judo gold medalist. However, a 23 percent takedown defense rate and submission losses to lifelong kickboxers Valentina Shevchenko and Germaine de Randamie don't do much to inspire confidence that "The Venezuelan Vixen" will be able to survive a much bigger, stronger opponent.
Merab Dvalishvili ($9,000)
Merab has been a must-play on DraftKings, averaging 119.2 fantasy points across 14 UFC fights. Despite this, expectations have remained measured from oddsmakers, as the rematch with Sean O'Malley is the first time he has opened as more than a (-170) favorite in his last eight contests. There is no question that "The Machine" is unique, as the weaponization of cardio and pressure generally doesn't push a fighter past a certain point. Add the fact that he hasn't had a finish since 2021, and it becomes easier to see a dynamic and powerful striker like O'Malley landing a fight-altering blow. This is particularly the case after a late body shot had Merab avoiding his opponent for most of the final round when the two tangled in September. Still, Merab has shown otherworldly toughness in the cage. This, combined with his grappling, should see the bantamweight champion clear to another high-scoring victory.
Serghei Spivac ($8,300)
Waldo Cortes-Acosta may be one of those fighters I pick against until he shows me he can turn a corner. While he has shown an uptick in power and willingness to engage lately, his style still amounts to a wild puncher who will walk through damage to find his own. It's also worth noting that he has never faced a committed wrestler in the Octagon. Spivac's chin has let him down in the past, so a knockout loss is on the table, but "Salsa Boy" has only finished six of 13 opponents via KO/TKO, a number that doesn't exactly scream "dominant force" in the heavyweight division.
Mark Choinski ($7,300)
I'm going with a speculative play on a debutante here, as not much tape exists for the man who has fought his last three opponents in Anthony Pettis FC, a regional promotion out of Wisconsin. However, I will lean on the fact that Choinski is a three-time All-American wrestler from UW-Oshkosh against Marquel Mederos, who ceeds ground and tends to fight at the speed of his opponents. "The Shark" is also comfortable throwing combinations to set up his takedown attempts. Mederos is powerful, but the slow pace at which he fights should make knockouts hard to come by going forward.
Vicente Luque ($7,400)
Kevin Holland looked reinvigorated in his fight with Gunnar Nelson. "The Trailblazer" was active off his back and fired stinging combinations from range. However, he still surrendered over nine minutes of control time and three takedowns to Nelson, who was stepping into the cage off a two-year layoff. Luque has never had an issue with rangy opponents, as he is content to pressure and use his leg kicks to close distance. I expect him to go to his wrestling often and be prepared for Holland to be aggressive in scrambles on the ground.
Azamat Murzakanov ($9,400)
Murzakanov is a sneakily complete light heavyweight, as he is athletic, can fight going backward, and has a wrestling attack in his back pocket. It's the latter skill that Murzakanov will need to use against Brendson Ribeiro, who holds a whopping 10-inch reach advantage versus the Russian fighter. Ribeiro has never defended a takedown in the Octagon, having been taken down with all seven attempts. I expect Murzakanov to keep himself safe enough to get on the inside, as his Brazilian counterpart hasn't shown the ability to use his length to his advantage.
Patchy Mix ($8,500)
The PFL's fighter management is the UFC's gain, as the former Bellator bantamweight champion makes his organizational debut. Mix should be able to showcase his skills against Mario Bautista, who has impressive speed, but is too erratic at range. By contrast, Mix is excellent at controlling the distance and will dominate the 31-year-old in grappling exchanges.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Jeka Saragih UNDER 19.5 Significant Strikes, and Joshua Van OVER 80.5 Significant Strikes
Saragih is too wild and powerful to expect anything but a short fight. Meanwhile, Joo Sang Yoo is a counter-fighter who waits to uncork big shots as his opponent closes the distance. While he may not have many finishes on his record, Yoo has finished two of his last three wins by KO/TKO, and Saragih has only seen the scorecards once in 18 professional fights.
A grappling-heavy opponent was likely the only thing that kept Van from going over his total in March, as "The Fearless" has landed a stunning 8.10 significant strikes per minute in the Octagon. Van will get an opponent ready to swing with him in Bruno Silva, who will stand on a napkin looking to knock his opponent out. While there is some concern of a knockout here, both men have proven incredibly tough, having only been finished by strikes three times in a combined 36 fights.
Interested in backing this or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
UFC Plays to Consider on Prize Picks -Takedowns
Quillan Salkilld UNDER 2.5 Takedowns and Joe Pyfer UNDER 1.0 Takedowns
I don't expect Salkilld to wrestle as freely here as he did in his Contender Series fight, as he will be facing an aggressive opponent who will look to stay on the pressure. This will keep the Australian fighter on his heels, which should make it more difficult to enter grappling exchanges on his terms.
I was surprised to see Pyfer had a takedown prop here. "Bodybagz" has failed to bring his opponent to the ground in five of his six UFC fights. While he has made quite a few attempts over that span, these have generally come against opponents he feels less comfortable striking with. He should have no such concerns regarding Kelvin Gastelum, against whom he will have a height advantage of five inches.
UFC Bets to Consider
Khaos Williams Wins via KO/TKO (+140)
Those who read my article last week know exactly what I think of Andreas Gustafsson's style, which relies upon breaking the opponent with pace and being tough enough to withstand the punishment that comes with recklessly closing the distance. This wasn't a particularly good idea against Trevin Giles, and it seems like a death wish against Williams, one of the hardest-hitting fighters in the division. Unless Gustafsson can find his way inside and hang on, the end of this fight may come swiftly.
Cong Wang vs. Ariane Lipski Does Not go to Decision (+108)
It may seem risky to predict a finish in a women's flyweight fight, but Wang and Lipski both like to brawl and should get the fight they want here. While Lipski has taken to wrestling more lately, she still lands over four significant strikes per minute in the cage. These ladies also have similar height and reach measurements, which should ensure that they feel comfortable standing at range.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC 316 this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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