This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
Top DFS Picks and Betting Strategies for UFC Kansas City
The top UFC betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Kansas City card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
2025 Overall Picks: 111-46-1 ~ Dog Picks 20-11-1
Drake's Bet of the Week: Carlos Prates +120 ~ 8-4-1 +715
DFS Lock of the Week: Mingyang Zhang - 11-1
Fanduel Captain: Zhang/Blackshear
Chelsea Chandler (6-3-0) v. Joselyne Edwards (14-6-0)
- Height: 5'8" - Reach: 68" - Stance: Southpaw
- Aggressive striker with 2 finishes in 6 wins
- Moderate volume; prefers to press forward
- Limited grappling offense; relies on striking exchanges
Joselyne Edwards (Low-owned flier)
- Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" - Stance: Orthodox
- Technical striker with 5 finishes in 13 wins
- Utilizes reach advantage effectively
- Solid takedown defense; keeps fights standing
DFS Perspective: Chandler brings pressure and throws heat, but her defense is sloppy, and her cardio has questions. Edwards isn't a world-beater, but she's the more technical fighter, has the better gas tank, and knows how to win rounds. If she keeps her back off the cage, she should be able to pick Chandler apart over three. Lean Edwards as the better all-around option, especially at what should be lower ownership.
UFC 314 Pick: Edwards
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Timmy Cuamba (8-3-0) v. Roberto Romero (8-4-1)
Timothy Cuamba (Mid-range GPP target)
- Height: 5'9" - Reach: 71" - Stance: Orthodox
- Crisp striker with 4 knockouts in 8 wins
- Moves well, solid fundamentals, but lacks finishing urgency
- Has gone to decision in 4 of last 5; needs volume to score in DFS
Roberto Romero (Low-owned flier)
- Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" - Stance: Orthodox
- Wild early with big finishing intent—5 first-round stoppages
- Can be reckless, but has power in both hands
- Struggles late in fights if he doesn't get an early finish
DFS Perspective: This one should be competitive. Romero is dangerous early and always hunting the finish, but he fades when dragged past the first round. Cuamba is the cleaner technician and has the cardio to push late, but he's lacked urgency in spots. Lean slightly Romero for the power and kill-or-be-killed style, but Cuamba makes a sneaky GPP target if he survives the early storm.
UFC 314 Pick: Romero
Jaqueline Amorim (9-1-0) v. Polyana Viana (13-7-0)
Jaqueline Amorim (High-upside GPP/CASH play)
- Height: 5'3" - Reach: 68" - Stance: Orthodox
- BJJ black belt with 7 submission wins in 9 victories
- Aggressive grappler; all wins via finish
- Potential for early submission; limited striking volume
Polyana Viana (Boom-or-bust GPP option)
- Height: 5'5" - Reach: 67" - Stance: Orthodox
- 13-7 record with 5 KOs and 8 submissions
- Known for quick finishes; 12 first-round stoppages
- Vulnerable to submissions; 2 submission losses
DFS Perspective: This is pure chaos waiting to happen. Both women are all-action from the start and have a combined 19 finishes in 22 wins. Amorim is the more technical grappler and should have a clear edge if it hits the mat early. Viana has power and can snatch subs too, but she's far more reckless. Expect this to end quick either way -- Amorim is the better minute-winner and a strong DFS play with early finish upside.
UFC 314 Pick: Amorim
Malcolm Wellmaker (8-0-0) v. Cameron Saaiman (9-2-0)
- Height: 5'8" - Reach: 67" - Stance: Southpaw
- 9-2 record with 6 wins by KO
- Former EFC Bantamweight Champion
- Coming off two consecutive losses in the UFC
Malcolm Wellmaker (High-upside GPP play)
- Height: 5'10" - Reach: 71" - Stance: Switch
- 8-0 record with 4 wins by KO and 2 by submission
- Earned UFC contract with a first-round KO on Dana White's Contender Series
- Known for aggressive striking and finishing ability
DFS Perspective: Saaiman is the more tested fighter here, but back-to-back losses have cooled the hype. He's clean technically and has solid cardio, but he's hittable and hasn't shown much urgency when behind. Wellmaker is undefeated with power and aggression, and if he comes out hot, he could absolutely make a statement. Slight lean toward Wellmaker as the higher-upside GPP play, but Saaiman has the tools to grind out a decision if he can weather the early storm.
UFC 314 Pick: Wellmaker
Da'Mon Blackshear (16-7-1) v. Alateng Heili (17-9-2)
Da'Mon Blackshear (High-upside GPP/CASH play)
- Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" - Stance: Switch
- Unorthodox and dangerous everywhere
- Slick submission game and creative setups
- High pace and excellent finishing instincts
Heili Alateng (Low-owned flier)
- Height: 5'5" - Reach: 66" - Stance: Orthodox
- Compact striker with solid wrestling base
- Tough and durable, but limited volume
- Struggles when forced on the back foot
DFS Perspective: I'm really high on Blackshear here. He's long, unpredictable, and dangerous anywhere the fight goes. His pace, creativity, and finishing instincts give him multiple paths to score big. Alateng is tough and solid, but he will be at a major size and activity disadvantage. If Blackshear lets it fly, this could be one-way traffic. One of my favorite plays on the slate.
UFC 314 Pick: Blackshear
Chris Gutierrez (21-6-2) v. John Castaneda (21-7-0)
- Height: 5'9" - Reach: 67" - Stance: Orthodox
- Technical striker with a focus on leg kicks
- Low-volume approach; limited finishing upside
- Relies on movement and point-fighting strategy
John Castaneda (High-upside GPP target)
- Height: 5'6" - Reach: 71" - Stance: Switch
- Aggressive fighter with knockout power and submission skills
- Mixes striking and wrestling effectively
- Higher activity rate; potential for significant DFS scoring
DFS Perspective: Gutierrez is technical and tough, but his style doesn't translate well to DFS. He's low volume, low finishing upside, and tends to win with movement and leg kicks—great in real life, underwhelming in fantasy. Castaneda brings more tools to the table with forward pressure, power, and the ability to mix in takedowns. If he turns this into a scrap, he can outwork Gutierrez and put up a far better DFS score. Lean Castaneda.
UFC 314 Pick: Casteneda
Evan Elder (9-2-0) v. Gauge Young (9-2-0)
Evan Elder (Mid-range Cash target)
- Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" - Stance: Switch
- Technical striker with solid fundamentals
- Mixes in wrestling effectively; 2 submission wins
- High fight IQ; manages distance well
- Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" - Stance: Orthodox
- Aggressive striker with 6 knockouts in 9 wins
- Prefers to keep fights standing; limited grappling
- Known for early finishes; fast starter
DFS Perspective: Gauge is stepping in on short notice and is taking a big leap in competition here. He's got some power and comes out aggressive, but he's green and hasn't faced anyone close to Elder's level. Elder is the more technical, experienced fighter, and he should be able to control the pace wherever the fight goes. He's not a massive finisher, but he's reliable, which makes him a strong cash play with a solid floor.
UFC 314 Pick: Elder
Matt Schnell (16-9-0) v. Jimmy Flick (17-8-0)
Matt Schnell (Mid-range GPP target)
- Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" - Stance: Orthodox
- Technical striker with solid submission skills
- High-paced fighter; known for engaging in brawls
- Can be hittable; durability is a concern
Jimmy Flick (High-upside GPP flier)
- Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" - Stance: Orthodox
- Submission specialist with 15 wins by submission
- Aggressive grappler; relentless in seeking the finish
- Limited striking; vulnerable to opponents with strong stand-up
DFS Perspective: Schnell is the better all-around fighter here—sharper on the feet, more composed in exchanges, and has faced the higher level of competition. That said, Flick is always live with his submission game. If he gets a scramble or catches Schnell slipping, he can flip the fight in a second. Lean Schnell for the better minute-winner and more complete game, but don't rule out Flick as a wild GPP dart with sub-or-bust upside.
UFC 314 Pick: Schnell
Ikram Aliskerov (15-2-0) v. Andre Muniz (24-6-0)
Ikram Aliskerov (High-upside GPP play)
- Height: 6'0" - Reach: 76" - Stance: Southpaw
- Former 4x World Combat Sambo Champion
- Well-rounded skill set with power and submission threats
- High finishing rate with 11 finishes in 15 wins
- Aggressive pace and pressure; excels in early rounds
Andre Muniz (GPP dart with submission upside)
- Height: 6'1" - Reach: 78" - Stance: Southpaw
- 3rd-degree BJJ black belt with 15 submission wins
- Prefers grappling exchanges; limited striking volume
- Can struggle under pressure; vulnerable to high-paced opponents
DFS Perspective: Aliskerov is a real problem—explosive, powerful, and dangerous no matter where the fight goes. He's the better striker by a wide margin and can hold his own on the mat if needed. Muniz has world-class jiu-jitsu and can snatch a limb in a flash, but he struggles when he's not the one dictating the pace. If Aliskerov keeps this upright, he likely walks him down and gets him out of there. Strong GPP target with legit early finish upside.
UFC 314 Pick: Aliskerov
Randy Brown (19-6-0) v. Nicolas Dalby (23-5-1)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
- Long, athletic striker with sharp boxing and sneaky submissions
- Can mix in grappling when needed; 5 submission wins
- High finishing upside; 7 wins by knockout
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Durable, well-rounded fighter with a karate base
- Prefers to grind out decisions; 12 wins by decision
- Limited finishing ability; 7 wins by knockout, 4 by submission
DFS Perspective: Brown has the tools to win this convincingly: length, speed, and finishing ability. Dalby is tough and gritty but doesn't offer much in terms of DFS scoring, even when he wins. He grinds decisions and rarely racks up volume or control time. Brown's more dynamic and has real upside, especially if he lets his hands go early. Lean Brown as a strong GPP play, while Dalby remains a fade for me in most formats.
UFC 314 Pick: Brown
Michel Pereira 31-12-0) v. Abus Magomedov (27-6-1)
Michel Pereira (High-upside GPP play)
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Explosive and unpredictable striker with a flair for dynamic attacks
- Holds black belts in both Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Karate
- Notable for rapid finishes; recent middleweight bouts ended in under 66 seconds
Abus Magomedov (Mid-range GPP target)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
- Well-rounded fighter with a strong grappling base and effective striking
- Achieved a swift 19-second knockout in his UFC debut
- Demonstrated resilience and submission skills with a recent arm-triangle choke victory
DFS Perspective: Pereira is the more explosive and unpredictable striker, capable of ending the fight with a single dynamic move. His recent performances at middleweight have showcased his finishing ability, making him a strong GPP play. Magomedov, with his reach advantage and solid grappling, poses a threat, especially if he can control the pace and utilize his wrestling. However, his tendency to fade in later rounds could be detrimental against Pereira's relentless pressure. Leaning Pereira for his finishing upside, but Magomedov remains a viable GPP option due to his potential to capitalize on any openings.
UFC 314 Pick: Pereira
Giga Chikadze (15-4-0) v. David Onama (13-2-0)
Giga Chikadze (High-upside GPP play)
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Elite kickboxer with a 3rd dan black belt in Goju-ryu Karate
- Known for devastating body kicks and striking precision
- 9 of 15 wins by KO/TKO; minimal grappling offense
David Onama (Strong cash and GPP option)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- High-volume striker with a well-rounded skill set
- 7 wins by KO/TKO, 4 by submission; capable on the ground
- Maintains a relentless pace and pressure throughout fights
DFS Perspective: Onama brings high-volume striking and a solid ground game, making him a strong play in both cash and GPP formats. His ability to push the pace and mix in grappling could overwhelm Chikadze if he maintains pressure. However, Chikadze's elite kickboxing and knockout power are significant threats; if he finds his range early, he can end the fight abruptly. While Onama's well-rounded skill set gives him multiple paths to victory, caution is advised due to Chikadze's striking prowess.
UFC 314 Pick: Onama
Anthony Smith (38-21-0) v. Zhang Mingyang (18-6-0)
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Orthodox
- 36-year-old veteran with extensive UFC experience
- Known for durability and submission skills; 15 wins by submission
- Recent performances indicate a decline; 2-5 in last 7 fights
- Preparing for retirement; this bout marks his 60th professional fight
Zhang Mingyang (High-upside GPP/CASH play)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Powerful striker with a 100% finish rate in 18 wins
- 12 wins by knockout, 6 by submission; aggressive fighting style
- Currently on an 11-fight winning streak
DFS Perspective: I have zero faith in Smith at this point. He's tough and experienced, but the durability is fading, and he's looked flat for a while now. Add in this being his retirement fight, and there is little to look forward to. Zhang is the exact type of fighter that gives him problems—young, explosive, and looking to end it early. Zhang's power is legit, and with Smith slowing down, this could be a quick finish. Love Zhang as a high-upside GPP anchor with first-round KO potential.
UFC 314 Pick: Zhang
Ian Machado Garry (15-1-0) v. Carlos Prates (21-6-0)
Ian Garry (Solid GPP option)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Technical striker with a background in boxing and judo
- Former Cage Warriors Welterweight Champion
- 7 wins by KO/TKO, 1 by submission; 4 first-round finishes
Carlos Prates (High-upside GPP play)
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Switch
- Aggressive striker with a Muay Thai background
- 16 wins by KO/TKO, 3 by submission; 9 first-round finishes
- Currently on an 11-fight winning streak
DFS Perspective: It's no secret—I'm a huge Fighting Nerds guy, and I'll be on Prates here expecting a knockout. He's dangerous, aggressive, and carries serious power, especially early. That said, this is a big step up. Garry has faced top-tier competition and just barely lost to elite names. If he decides to wrestle, he could absolutely dominate this fight on the mat—Prates hasn't been tested there at this level. GPP fight all the way, with live finishing upside on both sides. I'll be heavy on Prates, but Garry is no fade.
UFC 314 Pick: Prates
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
