Jack Link's 500 Preview: Superspeedway Battle

Talladega Superspeedway is up next in the NASCAR Cup Series schedule. The enormous tri-oval in Talladega, Alabama is the largest track on the NASCAR Cup Series circuit, measuring an amazing 2.66 miles in length, and stunning 33 degree banking in the turns. The track's size and banking make it a wide-open, four-wide, heart-pounding racing experience where speeds are high and margin for error is small. This will be a big departure from the recent short track stint in the schedule, and with it a change of faces at the top of our driver recommendations.    

This weekends, action will be similar to what we witnessed in the season-opening Daytona 500 were heavy packs that would eventually spread out into double lines or multiple packs over long green-flag runs. With the ability to race to the back or the front very quickly, moving through traffic presented little problem. The whopping 56 lead changes during the Great American Race were way up and the highest total we've seen at the Daytona oval since 2011. The Daytona 500 also saw the return of the multi-car crashes. There were four caution periods due to accidents involving multiple cars, with two of the incidents being particularly large with many cars involved. With the return of the "big one" or "big ones" we may see some form of return to the sandbagging at the back. Despite the stage racing point system, some drivers might feel better about staying out of the wrecks and being around at the end to contend for the win. The 13 cars that DNF'd in the season-opener will make some drivers think twice about spending too much time in the eye of the storm.

The art of superspeedway racing hasn't changed despite all the rules and car changes over the past few seasons. Once again, winning on these superspeedways has been reduced to the lowest common denominator, which is when to make your move and who to do it with. As we saw in February, William Byron's late charge to the front and holding off several competitors during the last-lap crash/caution/finish, it's all about timing often times in these superspeedway races. We expect to see a similar racing style prevail at Talladega Superspeedway this weekend, but hopefully without some of the nasty crashes we witnessed in the season-opening Daytona 500. 

Speaking of the race earlier this season at Daytona, we can rely on those results to some extent in looking at the Jack Link's 500 this weekend. The cars that were strong at Daytona in February will likely be the same to run up front on Sunday at Talladega Superspeedway. You can only put so much faith in historical stats and strong cars. At the end of the day, the driver that keeps all the doors and tires on his car and finishes the race is as good as gold. As far as historical data is concerned, we have every race since 2005 of Talladega electronic scoring to rely on for our fantasy racing picks this week. The loop stats in the table below cover the last 40 races at Talladega Superspeedway.

What used to be a solidly Chevrolet track has been tilted in another direction in recent races. The bowtie brand had swept three in-a-row at Talladega between spring of 2022 and spring of 2023 until that season's YellaWood 500. Ryan Blaney would march to victory in that race and put Ford back in winner's circle here for the first time since 2020. That would be Blaney's third-career win at the Alabama speedway. Over the past three races at Talladega Superspeedway, it has been an affair of parity. Each of the three manufacturers have won and introduced a degree of uncertainty for this race. Last October, it would be Ricky Stenhouse Jr. wining the YellaWood 500 in a major upset and taking Chevrolet and the bowtie brand back to Talladega victory lane. The veteran driver would take control late in that race leading the final 12 laps and surviving the "Big One" and an overtime restart to march to the win. It was Stenhouse's second-career victory at Talladega and very possibly not his last.  

Given what we saw in the Daytona 500 earlier this season, possible Chevrolet dominance will be on the minds of everyone this weekend. William Byron would nab the win for Chevrolet and Hendrick Motorsports. Ford drivers would be completely shut out of the Top 5 as Toyota and Chevrolet drivers would take all those spots. Despite Joey Logano, Austin Cindric and Ryan Blaney leading a combined 125 laps in that event, all three would be held out of victory lane. Toyota's best hopes likely ride with Tyler Reddick and Christopher Bell this weekend. The duo has been that brand's best performing drivers on superspeedway tracks the last couple seasons. Talladega races always hold plenty of thrills as well as surprises. We'll take an in-depth look at past history at Talladega and recent trends on superspeedway ovals and give you the drivers you need to dominate your fantasy racing leagues this Sunday afternoon.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

William Byron – The three-time Daytona winner and winner of the last two Daytona 500's has yet to scratch the win column at Talladega but his time has come. The No. 24 Chevrolet team appears to be in the groove and fast on these tracks. Byron has finished runner-up at Talladega Superspeedway twice and he rides a four-race Top-10 streak at the track into Sunday's action. This recent heater has boosted his Top-10 rate to 43-percent at the oval and lowered Byron's average finish to a sharp 14.4. The Hendrick Motorsports star has learned a lot about superspeedway racing over the past two seasons with his two Daytona 500 victories. It's just a matter of time before he wins at Talladega.  

Ryan Blaney – The three-time Talladega winner is also a two-time runner-up finisher at the Alabama speedway. Blaney won at this oval back-to-back in the fall of 2019 and spring of 2020. He's now led nearly 300 laps in his career at this huge facility. More recently, Blaney won and finished runner-up twice in a three-race Talladega span between 2022 and 2023. Last season the driver of the No. 12 Ford didn't have much luck in his two starts at this track, but we'd consider those efforts outliers in what has been a tremendous career so far racing at this facility. Blaney will be one of the top contenders to win in Sunday's 500-mile Talladega battle.

Tyler Reddick – Reddick has never been a big performer on the superspeedway circuit, that is until last season's spring event at Talladega. The 23XI Racing star led 13 laps in this event one year ago and walked away with his first win at Talladega Superspeedway. Toyota in general has shown much better speed and performance in this style of racing over the past couple seasons and it's squarely put Reddick and the No. 45 Toyota team on our fantasy radar. To prove his Talladega win of one year ago was no fluke, Reddick came to Daytona in February and grabbed an impressive, second-career runner-up finish at the similar Florida oval. Reddick is a driver to keep in consideration in weekly lineup and salary cap leagues this week.

Brad Keselowski – The six-time Talladega winner has a real expertise at superspeedway racing and seemingly a real knack for this oval in particular. Keselowski's victory and runner-up finish at this facility in 2021 illustrate his capability of pack racing at Talladega. Last season the veteran driver grabbed a pair of runner-up finishes at Talladega Superspeedway and lowered his career average finish to a spotless 15.0 and increased his Top-10 rate to a strong 50-percent at this huge oval. Keselowski's 324-career laps led at Talladega Superspeedway speak volumes. He loves this Alabama track and is always a threat to win here.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Alex Bowman – While Bowman has been an on-again off-again type of performer at Talladega Superspeedway (28-percent Top-10 rate and 22.4 average finish), he has experienced a surge in performance since the Cup Series moved to the new generation stock car a few seasons ago. Bowman has two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes in his last five superspeedway starts along with 12 laps led for a strong 9.0 average finish between Daytona and Talladega. The driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet opened the season with a very strong performance in the Daytona 500. Bowman had no trouble coming from the back to the front and came home an impressive sixth-place in the Great American Race. In this event one year ago at Talladega he racked up a strong fifth-place finish.       

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – The two-time Talladega winner picked up the second of his two wins at the track in last October's YellaWood 500. Stenhouse also finished a dazzling fourth-place in the spring event at Talladega last season. Those efforts ended what was about a three-season dry spell at the Alabama oval and revived some success he's had at the track earlier in his career. Stenhouse has also had some success at the similar oval in Daytona where he's a two-time victor as well, including the 2023 Daytona 500 crown. The veteran HYAK Motorsports driver understands the ins-and-outs of superspeedway racing and despite some lower Top-10 percentages and average finishes on these tracks, don't overlook him in fantasy racing lineups for the Jack Link's 500.

Christopher Bell – Bell has demonstrated good speed in these big oval events since the new generation car was launched. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota has won two pole positions, and captured two Top-10 finishes at Talladega since the launch of the new generation car. In last October's YellaWood 500 Bell raced to a strong sixth-place finish in the last event at Talladega Superspeedway. When we combine that with the pair of third-place finishes that this driver and team nabbed at Daytona last season, it's clear that Bell is becoming a top performer in this style of racing. Among the top Toyota drivers, he's one to give heavy consideration.    

Chase Briscoe – The driver of the No. 19 Toyota was a surprise pole winner in the season-opening Daytona 500. Not only would Briscoe grab the pole, but he would also race to a fantastic fourth-place finish in an event that was riddled with accidents. With one Top-5, two Top-10 and four Top-15 finishes in his last five superspeedway starts, Briscoe carries a strong 14.0 average finish across the span into Sunday's Jack Link's 500. He's had modest success at Talladega during his Cup Series career. Briscoe owns two Top-10 and six Top-15 finishes at the Alabama oval for a decent career average finish of 16.4. He's definitely driving for a better, faster race team this season, so bigger expectations for Talladega are not out of the question.  

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Talladega & solid upside

Joey Logano – Logano is a three-time winner at Talladega Superspeedway, with all three victories coming since the 2015 season. He's led over 500 combined laps at this speedway for his career, making Talladega his favorite of the two superspeedway tracks.  His last few trips to the huge oval have yielded great speed, great qualifying and lots of laps led, however, the finishes have not followed for the No. 22 Ford team. We're sliding Logano into the sleepers list this week for that very reason. Logano will have speed and the ability to challenge the Top 5, but his luck has not been great here recently. Lots of upside but also offset by lots of risk. 

Austin Cindric – The 2022 Daytona 500 winner has continued to build on the superspeedway excellence of the No. 2 Ford team that we saw with its previous driver, Brad Keselowski. Cindric has sat on the outside pole of the last two Talladega races and he's driven to one Top-5 and two Top-10 finishes at the track in his last five starts. The 60 laps led in his last three Talladega efforts show he's battling at the front and mixing it up with the leaders. The Penske Racing driver was very impressive in the season-opening Daytona 500 with an outside pole position, race-high 59 laps led and he came home a strong eighth-place in the Great American Race. That's a great last look on the huge ovals before coming to Talladega this week.  

Bubba Wallace – The 2021 Talladega winner has always had a knack for superspeedway racing. Although his performances at Daytona have tended to be better than his Talladega efforts. Still, the speed that the No. 23 Toyota team showed to start this season in the Daytona 500 is difficult to ignore. Wallace qualified third on the Daytona grid, led 18 laps and raced among the leaders before getting rolled up in a late crash in the Daytona 500. That's been emblematic of his past couple seasons on superspeedway ovals. Wallace fetched a solid ninth-place in his last Talladega start in last October's YellaWood 500. He knows how to get to the front in these races and critically, when to make his move. 

Chase Elliott – Things have been a little lean on the superspeedways for the No. 9 Chevrolet team so we've ranked Elliott in the sleepers list this week. Elliott is a two-time Talladega winner, and his eight-career Top-10 finishes here check in at a very reassuring 44-percent rate. As he demonstrated in the Daytona 500, Elliott knows how to stay out of trouble in this high-risk races and he brought it home in the Top 15 in the season-opener. The Hendrick Motorsports star isn't the threat to win this race like he has been in the past. However, Elliott has the knowledge of drafting and savvy moves to challenge the Top 10 in the Jack Link's 500.           

Chris Buescher – The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing veteran grabbed a Top 10 in the season-opening Daytona 500 and Buescher finished 10th in the summer Daytona race last season. Current trends show that he has the speed to challenge the Top 10 at Talladega this weekend. He is prone to have the occasional disappearing act on these big ovals, but possesses the ability to grab Top-10 finishes when everything works out. That makes Buescher a good deep-tier driver consideration this Sunday. He hast just three-career Talladega Top-10 finishes, but all have come since the 2020 season. Just another piece of evidence demonstrating how this veteran driver has improved very recently in this style of racing.

John Hunter Nemechek – Nemechek earned his only Top-5 finish thus far this season in the Daytona 500. That's been the pattern for this Legacy Motor Club driver. He possesses good superspeedway instincts and his best performances have come mostly on the larger ovals. Nemechek has two Top 10's in four-career Cup Series starts at Talladega Superspeedway. While the sample size is small, it's still that sound 50-percent Top-10 rate. These races with their high-stakes and high rewards are a bit of a field equalizer between the larger and smaller Cup Series teams. Nemechek will use that factor to his full advantage. Afterall, Legacy Motor Club put two drivers in the Top 10 in the season-opening Daytona 500, and that didn't happen by accident.   

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Kyle Busch – At best Busch has had uneven luck with superspeedway racing over the years. With two wins, and 26-percent Top-10 rate at Talladega, he's shown he can get to victory lane, but he can also struggle to consistently find the Top 10. Over the past year, success has been lean on the superspeedway ovals for the No. 8 Chevrolet team. Busch has just one Top 10 in his last five starts between Daytona and Talladega (20-percent) and his 18.8 average finish during that span is less than reassuring. The veteran Richard Childress Racing driver qualified poorly, didn't lead any laps and crashed out of the season-opening Daytona 500. We believe Busch is a driver to pan this weekend in the Jack Link's 500.  

Kyle Larson – The Hendrick Motorsports star has never been a big-time performer at the Talladega oval. With just four Top-10 finishes in 20-career starts the 20-percent Top-10 rate will discourage most players from deploying Larson in the Jack Link's 500 and for good reason. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet has crashed and DNF'd six times at Talladega Superspeedway. His career average finish now stands at a lofty 21.9 at this oval. Larson's last three Talladega starts have been better but still only one netted a Top 10 which we would consider an outlier. Despite his big wins at Homestead and Bristol and his big short track performances in recent weeks, we suggest benching Larson this week given his struggles in this style of racing.  

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin is one of the better Toyota drivers when it comes to superspeedway racing, and he certainly has the resume to back that up. The Joe Gibbs Racing star is a two-time winner at this facility and he's sat on the pole here in four of the last nine Talladega races. With a Top-10 percentage near 45-percent at Talladega Superspeedway, the driver of the No. 11 Toyota is above average on cracking the Top 10 here. However, Hamlin has fallen on hard times of late in superspeedway racing. He doesn't at all look like the driver with multiple Daytona 500 wins and multiple wins at Talladega. The driver of the No. 11 Toyota has just one Top 10 in his last five superspeedway starts and a disappointing 25.6 average finish during this span.     

Ross Chastain – Despite some success in 2022 on the superspeedway ovals and even a victory at Talladega in the spring of that season, we recommend passing on Chastain and the No. 1 Chevrolet team this weekend. The Trackhouse Racing veteran has cooled considerably over the past year on the big tracks. Chastain has two Top-15 finishes vs. three finishes outside the Top 20 in his last five starts between Daytona and Talladega. The veteran driver has led some laps during that time (37 total) but he's found finishing these races very difficult. His career numbers at Talladega Superspeedway now stand at two Top-10 finishes in 12-career starts for a lowly 17-percent Top-10 rate at the central Alabama track.