This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
FireKeepers Casino 400
Location: Brooklyn, Mich.
Course: Michigan International Speedway
Format: 2.0-mile D-shaped oval
Laps: 200
NASCAR FireKeepers Casino 400 Race Preview
Ryan Blaney scored his first victory of 2025 last week at Nashville Speedway, firmly seizing hold of his spot in the championship playoffs. His victory could be good news for Team Penske and the entire Ford camp this week at Michigan International Speedway, too. Prior to Tyler Reddick's victory in this race last season, Ford drivers were on a streak of nine straight wins at the track stretching back to 2018. Being the home of both Ford and Chevrolet, this is a race that holds a lot of prestige among the manufacturers.
The 400-mile affair will be the 108th time the NASCAR Cup Series has raced at the track, and this is the only visit to the speedway of the season. Four different drivers have won the last four Michigan races, too. This week's race also marks the first of a three-race period that will determine seeding for the upcoming in-season head-to-head knockout tournament with a million-dollar prize on the line. That contest kicks off at Atlanta and concludes at Indianapolis. However, all sights are still set on securing an all-important spot in the 16-driver playoff field. Seven spots remain available for non-winners, but 12 regular-season opportunities remain for drivers to secure their spot to compete for the 2025 title.
Key Stats at Michigan International Speedway
- Number of races: 107
- Winners from pole: 21
- Winners from top-5 starters: 64
- Winners from top-10 starters: 80
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 7
- Fastest race: 173.997 mph
Previous 10 Michigan Winners
2024 - Tyler Reddick
2023 - Chris Buescher
2022 - Kevin Harvick
2021 - Ryan Blaney
2020 II _ Kevin Harvick
2020 I - Kevin Harvick
2019 fall - Kevin Harvick
2019 spring - Joey Logano
2018 fall - Kevin Harvick
2018 spring - Clint Bowyer
Michigan International Speedway is a 2.0-mile D-shaped oval that requires high horsepower and offers multiple grooves in the turns to enable exciting racing. The track's long straights bring the draft into play, and maintaining speed through the track's long turns help drivers maximize top speed at the next corner entry. The track's 18-degree banking and wide turns enable drivers to try different lines, which can be leveraged to overcome problems with dirty air like we have seen at other tracks.
Michigan's surface is also smooth and not as harsh on tires. This means teams may be able to try two-tire stops to improve position, too. The long lap can also place an emphasis on fuel mileage, so there will be a variety of strategy decisions teams will need to make throughout the race distance. However, unexpected cautions could disrupt the most well laid plans and teams will need to be nimble as the distance unfolds. From a trends perspective, Toyota is the most recent winner, but Ford has been the car in Victory Lane most often recently. Chevrolet has not won at the track since Kyle Larson swept race victories here in 2017.
RotoWire NASCAR DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the FireKeepers 400 (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Kyle Larson - $11,000
Denny Hamlin - $10,700
Ryan Blaney - $10,500
William Byron - $10,000
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Tyler Reddick - $9,800
Ross Chastain - $9,500
Joey Logano - $9,200
Chase Elliott - $9,000
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Chase Briscoe - $8,500
Kyle Busch - $8,300
Carson Hocevar - $8,000
Chris Buescher - $7,800
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Bubba Wallace - $7,700
Brad Keselowski - $7,500
Ryan Preece - $7,000
Daniel Suarez - $6,600
NASCAR DFS Picks for the FireKeepers Casino 400
William Byron - $10,000
Joey Logano - $9,200
Kyle Busch - $8,300
Bubba Wallace - $7,700
Brad Keselowski - $7,500
Ryan Preece - $7,000
William Byron (DK $10,000, FD $12,000) started a good run of form at the All-Star Race and finished second and fifth in the two races since. That momentum, plus the fact that he has had one of the fastest cars all season, indicates he may be on the cusp of returning to Victory Lane shortly. His consistency this season has kept him atop the points and having not won a race since Daytona, it seems like he may be due. He has never won at Michigan, but he finished second in last year's race and was runner up back in 2021, too. Being in the mix for this win last year, as well as the past few weeks, makes Byron a top choice.
Ford's recent Michigan dominance should also point fantasy players in Joey Logano's (DK $9,200, FD $11,000) this week. The Team Penske driver has three top-fives in the last five races including the All-Star Race, and he has three prior Michigan wins on his resume. Logano's best finish at this track in the current generation of car was fourth in 2022, and he crashed out of last year's race. Kyle Busch (DK $8,300, FD $8,500) is also a former Michigan winner. His record at this track has been attractive despite crashing out of two of the last three. Last year, he led 24 laps and finish fourth. Busch is looking to capitalize on the pace he has shown recently and Michigan is a place he could actually achieve that.
Deeper selections to consider this week include Bubba Wallace (DK $7,700, FD $7,800). The 23XI Racing driver sits 12th in points and is coming off of a sixth-place finish a week ago at Nashville. That finish is perfect timing for him with Michigan up next. Having landed top results at Michigan in the past, last week's success will give him confidence that he can do it again. Wallace's best Michigan finish was second in 2022 when he started on pole, and he led a combined 48 laps in his last three visits.
Brad Keselowski (DK $7,500, FD $8,000) just needs a turnaround. Normally, with Keselowski's luck this season, I would avoid him. However, this is his home track and a place he consistently finishes inside the top 10 at. His last two races here were top-five finishes, too. If there is any track to overlook Keselowski's poor 2025, it would be this one. He has never won at this circuit but would dearly love to do so, and a top finish may spark a turnaround of his bumpy season.
Teammate Ryan Preece (DK $7,000, FD $6,000) should also be on radars this week. He has demonstrated top-five and top-10 speed throughout this season and Michigan is a place he has had some success at in the past. Preece is in the thick of the playoff bubble battle and needs to consistently be scoring top-15 finishes to keep those hopes alive. He has seven prior Michigan appearances in this season with a best finish of seventh in 2019. More importantly, he finished 11th in last year's race despite starting 26th.
NASCAR Best Bets for the FireKeepers 400
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 6:30 PM ET Friday
Race Winner - William Byron +800
Top-Three Finish - Denny Hamlin +180
Top-Five Finish - Brad Keselowski +350
Top-10 Finish - Ryan Preece +250
Winning Manufacturer - Ford +275
Both William Byron and Denny Hamlin have been stepping up their competition since the All-Star Race. Both drivers have been in contention for victories and both have been in the mix recently at Michigan, too. Given their current run of form, either makes a good case for winner this week. However, Byron's odds are significantly more favorable than Hamlin's. Byron nearly won this race last season and has been racing among the top five the past few weeks showing he is ready for a return to Victory Lane. Going with Byron for the victory on Sunday gives a greater payout while taking Hamlin for a top-three finish is a slightly safer option. Depending on your risk appetite, neither option appears to be a bad one to go with.
A little more risky would be choosing Brad Keselowski for a top-five. However, the relative odds are attractive versus other options, and there are a lot of reasons to like Keselowski this week. This is his home race. He has shown speed in recent races and just needs to put all the pieces together to reverse his fortune. Most importantly, he has nine top-five finishes from 27 career starts at Michigan, including the last two races. His teammate, Ryan Preece, for a top-10 finish is also compelling. Like Keselowski, Preece's odds compared to other options are better, and a top-10 finish is certainly within his reach. His 11th-place finish in this race last year serves as an indicator of his potential with a better car this time. Preece has five top-10s so far this season with two in the last five races, too.
On the manufacturer side, why not go with Ford? The blue oval brand has the best odds versus Chevrolet and Toyota this week despite dominating at the track. Ford may not have the favorite drivers to win this week, but their engines have won nine of the last 10 Michigan races. With Ryan Blaney joining the 2025 winner's list last week, there is a lot of momentum with the brand as they head to a circuit they've recently set the standard at. Ford is sure to focus on this race given its proximity to their headquarters, and a race win is not a far-fetched idea by any stretch.
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