America 250 Florida Duels at DAYTONA
Location: Daytona, Fla.
Course: Daytona International Speedway
Format: 2.5-mile tri-oval
Laps: 60
Race Preview
Thursday's America 250 Florida Duels at Daytona feature twin 150-mile qualifying races that will determine the lineup for Sunday's Daytona 500. These Duels are a traditional prelude to the main event, giving fantasy players a somewhat clearer picture of the expected favorites when Sunday's green flag drops. While the Duels set the starting positions for the Daytona 500, fans should avoid reading too much into Thursday night's results. Winning a Duel race and then going on to win the Daytona 500 is exceptionally rare. Less than 10 drivers have ever done it, and Matt Kenseth was the last to do so in 2012.
Starting position at Daytona just isn't as critical as at other tracks, since drafting in the pack outweighs single-car speed, but the qualifying Duels do give drivers and teams a chance to work out the kinks before putting it all on the line on Sunday. Although multiple drivers have won at Daytona from the pole, like Ryan Blaney did last fall, success on Sunday is foreshadowed more which drivers can advance through the field and lead laps during the Duels, rather than their finishing position in Thursday night's 60-lap sprints. Drivers who demonstrate the ability to move forward, and even take the lead, during Thursday's competition are strong indicators of who's likely to succeed in the Daytona 500.
Key Stats at Daytona International Speedway (Points Races)
- Number of races: 157
- Winners from pole: 27
- Winners from top-5 starters: 77
- Winners from top-10 starters: 116
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 14
- Fastest race: 183.295 mph
Previous 10 Daytona Duels Winners
2025 Duel No. 2 - Austin Cindric
2025 Duel No. 1 - Bubba Wallace
2024 Duel No. 2 - Christopher Bell
2024 Duel No. 1 - Tyler Reddick
2023 Duel No. 2 - Aric Almirola
2023 Duel No. 1 - Joey Logano
2022 Duel No. 2 - Chris Buescher
2022 Duel No. 1 - Brad Keselowski
2021 Duel No. 2 - Austin Dillon
2021 Duel No. 1 - Aric Almirola
As is usually the case in these qualifying races, different drivers will be racing according to different plans. Full-time season entrants with guaranteed starting spots may want to preserve their car while other part-time entrants will be anxious to get as far forward as possible while being willing to fight aggressively to stay there. Most drivers will have Sunday's bigger prize firmly in sight and will try to avoid any significant setbacks that might damage their primary car, though. Thursday's races are an opportunity for drivers to get a feel for how Sunday's 500 miles may unfold while giving them a chance to get back up to speed after the winter with some practice getting on and off pit road, too.
All of those aspects will be critical information they will use on Sunday. As is typical for these races, fantasy players should focus on moments that matter Thursday night versus strictly looking at the finishing order. Watch for drivers that are able to work their way forward through traffic as well as get to the front to lead. Seeing those characteristics Thursday is indication that those drivers might be in store for a competitive 500 miles on Sunday.
RotoWire NASCAR DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the America 250 Florida Duels at DAYTONA (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Ryan Blaney - $9,800 - Duel 1
Denny Hamlin - $9,700 - Duel 2
Bubba Wallace - $9,500 - Duel 1
Chase Elliott - $9,000 - Duel 2
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Joey Logano - $8,900 - Duel 1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - $8,700 - Duel 2
Chris Buescher - $8,300 - Duel 1
Austin Cindric - $8,200 - Duel 2
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Alex Bowman - $7,800 - Duel 1
Christopher Bell - $7,700 - Duel 2
Daniel Suarez - $7,600 - Duel 1
Erik Jones - $7,300 - Duel 2
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Ty Gibbs - $6,500 - Duel 2
Austin Dillon - $6,200 - Duel 1
John Hunter Nemechek - $6,000 - Duel 1
Zane Smith - $5,300 - Duel 2
NASCAR DFS Picks for the Duels at Daytona
Duel 1
Denny Hamlin - $9,700
Chase Elliott - $9,000
Austin Cindric - $8,200
Christopher Bell - $7,700
Erik Jones - $7,300
Josh Berry - $7,100
Duel 2
Ryan Blaney - $9,800
Bubba Wallace - $9,500
Joey Logano - $8,900
Chris Buescher - $8,300
Daniel Suarez - $7,600
Jimmie Johnson - $5,800
Selecting fantasy lineups for Daytona's qualifying Duel races is a tough prospect being the first real superspeedway action of a new season. However, there are some things players can go by. First, Toyota has been increasing their finishing power at superspeedways after struggling at the tracks since the introduction of the current generation of car. Bubba Wallace won a Duel race last season with his 23XI Racing ride, and Denny Hamlin is a three-time Daytona winner that can get the job done if that forward progress from Toyota carries into this race. They will both have to hold off some stiff competition coming from both Ford and Chevrolet, though.
Chase Elliott has a record of superspeedway success along with three Daytona pole positions but zero wins at the track. The same cannot be said of the Team Penske trio of Austin Cindric, Ryan Blaney, and Joey Logano, though. The Team Penske Fords have been some of the strongest cars to have at either Daytona or Talladega for the past few seasons. The group combined to lead 120 of the 361 total laps run at the two Daytona races last season. They are often found up front and working together. Blaney and Logano will have the luxury of being in the same Duel Thursday night, but Cindric can't be counted out either with someone like Josh Berry helping out, too.
Further down the selections, Christopher Bell is another Toyota worth considering. His teammate qualified on the front row, which shows that the Joe Gibbs Racing cars have outright speed this week, but the same questions as above remain about whether or not they can get the job done in race conditions. Bell led four laps and ran inside the top 15 in last fall's Daytona stop, though. Like Hamlin, Bell can will make good use of his abilities if Toyota continues their improvement trend into the weekend.
Finally, Erik Jones, Daniel Suarez, and Jimmie Johnson could each be valuable roster additions Thursday night. All three are superspeedway masters that can get the most out of their cars despite being on smaller teams. Johnson earned a third-place finish in last year's Daytona 500 after finishing 19th in his qualifying race, while teammate Erik Jones raced to a second-place finish in his Duel and 12th in the following Daytona 500. Suarez teaming up with Spire Motorsports could also produce an above-average result. The team has a habit of getting their driver to the finish in contention at Daytona, and with Suarez behind the wheel, fans should be excited to see what they can accomplish both Thursday and Sunday.
NASCAR Best Bets for the Duels at Daytona
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 12:30 PM ET Thursday
Duel 1 Winner - Joey Logano +700, Bubba Wallace +1400
Duel 2 Winner - Austin Cindric +850, Christopher Bell +900
For Thursday night bets, we're looking at top choice to win in addition to one other contender. In the first Duel, where Penske teammates Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney are, the idea of the pair linking up and dominating to the finish isn't inconceivable. The question is more about which driver you think will come out on top. This time, I am going with Logano. The driver of the No. 22 machine has had more than his share of bad luck at this track recently and that has to end at some point. With Blaney being the most recent Daytona winner from last fall, Logano feels like a statistically better choice. The race is not theirs to lose, though. Anyone could come forward to win, and why not Bubba Wallace? He won a Duel race last season and is a perennial contender at superspeedways. Wallace in the Toyota is my bigger value play for the first race.
The lineup for Thursday night's second race makes choosing a winner a bit more difficult. Odds are narrow for most of the favorites, but Austin Cindric and Christopher Bell both fall right in the sweet spot. Neither is a dominant favorite and both offer a slight premium in return. Cindric does not have his teammates to work with in this Duel, so the chances of him being outfoxed by Chevrolets or Toyotas is a real concern. However, Cindric does have some Fords he can work with, and being forced to find less obvious partners in the draft could pay off in a big way for him when Sunday comes around. Alternatively, Christopher Bell could be on the cusp of a Daytona breakthrough. We see now that the JGR Toyotas have speed. The question is whether or not they can put that to good use in the race. Bell has three third-place finishes at Daytona and, with some continued progress from Toyota, would be overdue to move up and win at this superspeedway.
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