This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
Andy's Frozen Custard 300
Location: Fort Worth, Texas
Course: Texas Motor Speedway
Format: 1.5-mile quad-oval
Laps: 200
Andy's Frozen Custard 300 Preview
Austin Hill and Jesse Love were pretty easy to identify as the favorites heading into Talladega last weekend, and they went on to combine to lead 69 of the 113 laps, with Hill ultimately taking the checkered flag. This week should be a bit more wide open as we head back to an intermediate track at Texas, though Kyle Larson is back in the field as a replacement for the injured Connor Zilisch. It will mark his third appearance in the series this season.
Key Stats at Texas Motor Speedway
- Number of races: 47
- Winners from pole: 6
- Winners from top-five starters: 27
- Winners from top-10 starters: 37
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 3
Last 10 Winners at Texas Motor Speedway
2024 - Sam Mayer
2023- John Hunter Nemechek
2022 fall- Noah Gragson
2022 spring - Tyler Reddick
2021 fall- John Hunter Nemechek
2021 spring - Kyle Busch
2020 fall – Harrison Burton
2020 spring – Austin Cindric
2019 fall - Christopher Bell
2019 spring – Kyle Busch
Texas Motor Speedway is a traditional intermediate track. The primary unique factor is the banking, which is 20 degrees in turns 1 and 2 and 24 degrees in turns 3 and 4. That can make setup and handling a unique challenge.
The long-term statistics suggest that poor qualifying can be overcome and the recent track history is a mixed bag. Five of the 10 most recent race winners have started in the top five. On the other hand, the other five started 10th or worse.
Toyota and Chevy have dominated the track historically. Toyota has won six of the last 10 races, but Chevy has won three of the last four. Overall, manufacturer probably shouldn't influence build much, if at all.
RotoWire NASCAR Xfinity Series DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the Andy's Frozen Custard 300 (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
Tier 1 DraftKings Values
Kyle Larson - $12,500
Justin Allgaier - $11,000
Sam Mayer- $10,500
Tier 2 DraftKings Values
Brandon Jones - $9,600
Sammy Smith - $9,000
Carson Kvapil - $8,800
Ryan Sieg- $8,600
Taylor Gray - $8,400
Nick Sanchez - $8,300
Tier 3 DraftKings Values
Harrison Burton - $7,900
Daniel Dye - $7,600
Dean Thompson-$7,400
Jeb Burton - $7,000
Tier 4 DraftKings Values
Brennan Poole - $6,400
NASCAR Xfinity Series DFS Picks for the Andy's Frozen Custard 300
Justin Allgaier- $11,000
Sammy Smith - $9,000
Carson Kvapil - $8,800
Daniel Dye - $7,600
Jeb Burton- $7,000
Brennan Poole - $6,400
As has been the case when Larson is in the Xfinity field, the immediate decision is whether to build through him or an elite full-time driver in the series. This time around, two things point me in the direction of the latter path. First is that Larson qualified only 20th. Second, Allgaier has finished inside the top five in three of his last four races at Texas and has led an impressive 283 laps in that span.
There area lot of viable options from the low $8,000 range to mid $9,000s, and there's a pretty good case to roster each. My priority in the group is Smith. He hasn't qualified particularly well at the track and that continued this weekend, as he'll start 23rd on the grid. However, he's also showcased the ability to move up through the field for solid finishes, which should lead to a pile of DK points.
Tier 3 also offers a number of good values. Both Burton's and Dye stand out as my favorite targets. Jeb and Harrison qualified fourth and fifth, respectively, and both have performed very well in recent races. Meanwhile, Dye has at least 32 DK points in four of his last five races and offers the fifth-highest point-per-dollar projection on our optimizer.
Poole is the ideal punt play of the weekend. He's averaged 33.2 DK points per race and has at least 40 DK points in three of his last five races.
NASCAR Xfinity Series Best Bets for the Andy's Frozen Custard 300
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 3:00 AM ET Saturday
Race Winner – Justin Allgaier +400, Sam Mayer +900, Jesse Love +1400, Carson Kvapil +1800
The only offering on some of the bigger books is outright winner, though that could change by Saturday morning. As things stand, we have to balance price and historical trends. Starting inside the top five is an advantage anywhere, but it has historically been quite powerful at Texas. That points to Allgaier as a chalky pick, but also introduces Love as a potential darkhorse. He started his only race at the track on pole last year and qualified well once again. Perhaps a year of experience will help him convert that track position into a better result.
In the last few years, starting inside the top 15 has been enough to lead to race wins. The last winner we saw starting from outside the top 20 was Kyle Busch in 2008. That makes Larson a particularly tough bet at -140 and also casts doubt on otherwise solid options such as Brandon Jones.
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