This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
Explore the Pocono Mountains 250
Location: Long Pond, Pennsylvania
Course: Pocono Raceway
Format: 2.5-mile road course
Laps: 100
Explore the Pocono Mountains 250 Preview
Sports aren't scripted, but sometimes they feel like they are. That was the case last weekend in Mexico City when Daniel Suarez pulled out a win at his home race in front of fans locked on his every move. This week, we'll head back to a more traditional NASCAR track at Pocono Raceway. Including this weekend, there are 11 races remaining before the playoffs. Only six full-time drivers in the Xfinity Series have won a race, leaving a lot left on the table for the next three months.
Key Stats at Pocono Raceway
- Number of races: 9
- Winners from pole: 1
- Winners from top-five starters: 4
- Winners from top-10 starters: 7
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 0
Last 10 Pocono Raceway Winners
2024- Cole Custer
2023- Austin Hill
2022- Noah Gragson
2021- Austin Cindric
2020- Chase Briscoe
2019– Cole Custer
2018- Kyle Busch
2017- Brad Keselowski
2016- Kyle Larson
The Cup Series has an extensive history at Pocono Raceway, but the Xfinity Series is far more limited. Nevertheless, it's a fairly illustrious winner's list, with several current Cup drivers included. This weekend, we get several new additions to the entry list, with Chase Elliott being the most prominent.
As for some trends, Ford has gotten the best of the track with five wins. Winning pole isn't predictive, but starting inside the top is a near must for those hoping to take the checkered flag.
RotoWire NASCAR Xfinity Series DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the Explore the Pocono Mountains 250
Based on a Standard $50K Salary Cap
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Justin Allgaier - $11,000
Chase Elliott - $10,700
Austin Hill - $10,200
Sam Mayer - $10,000
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Connor Zilisch - $9,700
Sheldon Creed-$9,500
Sammy Smith - $8,800
Brandon Jones- $8,700
Christian Eckes - $8,000
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Dean Thompson - $7,200
Daniel Dye - $7,100
Harrison Burton - $6,900
Jeb Burton - $6,800
NASCAR DFS Picks for the Explore the Pocono Mountains 250
Justin Allgaier - $11,000
Sheldon Creed - $9,500
Christian Eckes -$8,000
Dean Thompson -$7,200
Daniel Dye - $7,100
Harrison Burton - $6,900
This is a unique weekend relative to what we've seen most of the season. The elite drivers remain priced up, but there aren't many clear viable punt options. That leaves us with a relative straightforward build of something resembling stars and scrubs, just without the typical wide spread we'd see in salary.
It's worth considering any of the Tier 1 drivers, but Allgaier and Elliott stand out. Despite a poor weekend in Mexico, Allgaier maintains a clear points lead in the series and also has a strong history at Pocono (110.3 driver rating). He is a top option to consider every week. Elliott is the lone Cup driver participating this week and his consistency in that series should bode well for his outlook this weekend.
Creed took a while to get going after joining the Haas Factory Team, but he's posted at least 40 DK points in three of his last five races and at least 34 in four of the last five. He has also two top-five finishes and another sixth-place finish in his three races at Pocono.
After filling in two drivers in the higher price ranges, it's time to look for value. Harrison Burton is the easy selection in this tier and his price is surprising. He has been in particularly strong form lately, finishing inside the top 10 in four of his last six races. Dye and Thompson have been consistent this season as well. Dye is averaging 30.9 points per race – sixth-highest among full-time drivers in the series. Thompson isn't far behind at 28.5, and both measure out well from both a common sense standpoint as well as on our optimizer.
NASCAR Best Bets for the Explore the Mountains 250
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 10:00 AM ET Saturday
Top-five finisher: Sheldon Creed (+110)
Head-to-Head Matchup: Connor Zilisch vs. Sheldon Creed (-105)
Head-to-Head Matchup: Sammy Smith vs. Brandon Jones (-115)
Head-to-Head Matchup: Sam Mayer vs. Austin Hill (-115)
We covered Creed in some detail during the DFS section, but he's a thread throughout all contexts of fantasy and betting this weekend. His top-five odds are steep, but he does have the track history at Pocono. Creed still hasn't won a race at the Xfinity-series level, though it as at least worth bringing up his +1000 odds to end that drought.
We are starting to see some head-to-head matchups consistently offered, which is a fun addition and also a better way to hunt value in most cases. Jones is the opposite of what we've discussed in terms of drivers being in good form, but he is still capable of popping up for good results. Pocono is a good opportunity for that. He's qualified inside the top 10 in seven consecutive races at the track, and we know that threshold is important from the track history.
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