This article is part of our Football Predictions series.
Aston Villa are looking for three points and some help when they take on Manchester United to close out their season Sunday.
Manchester United lost the Europa League final on Wednesday against Tottenham, which means this season is officially the worst one they've ever had. If they lose this match and Tottenham draw or win against Brighton, United will finish in 17th place. They haven't won a Premier League match against a non-relegated team since Jan. 26, so this is going to be a challenge.
Aston Villa need three points and some teams to lose in front of them. They're tied on points with Newcastle and Chelsea, but both have the goal-difference tiebreaker over them. Unai Emery's side really needs three points and some hope that either Chelsea or Newcastle will drop points in their respective matches.
Following Wednesday's defeat, Manchester United are expected to have a completely rotated side. Meanwhile, Villa are fresh and should have a similar XI to their win against Tottenham.
All projected and confirmed lineups can be seen at the RotoWire lineup pages.
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Premier League Best Bets for Manchester United vs. Aston Villa
Betting on Anytime Goalscorer
Ollie Watkins will again be leading the line for Aston Villa on Sunday with Marcus Rashford still out.
Watkins had an up-and-down season, but he's still scored 16 goals in the Premier League and his xG per-90 minute scoring rate of 0.55 is actually the highest of his career.
Watkins is best at making runs off the opponent's back line. Since Manchester United like to play a high line, he'll have those opportunities. Watkins is also a big threat on set pieces, something Manchester United have struggled to defend all season.
I like the value on him to score in this match at -105.
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Betting on Player to Score or Assist
The main creative player for Aston Villa this season has been Morgan Rogers.
Once Aston Villa break the first line of pressure, he's often the one receiving the ball and running at the opponent's back line.
In his first season in this major No. 10 role for Villa, he's produced 14 goals and 13 assists in all competitions. Since Manchester United will likely be playing a rotated squad and pressing them high, this will create opportunities for Rogers to attack in these types of transition moments.
Rogers is second on the team in passes leading to a shot and first in goal-creating actions.
I like the value on him to score or have an assist in this match at -120.
Betting on Player Shots
Manchester United's offense under Ruben Amorim has been pathetic.
Amorim wants them to be a team that can consistently build out of the back, but they don't have the technical players to do that consistently. When they have to send the ball long over the top of the opponent's press, Rasmus Hojlund has been terrible at winning duels and United can't win second balls.
That means United are constantly losing control of the ball, and even when they reach the final third they don't have players who can consistently beat defenders off the dribble. Seen in the UEL final, they aren't creating enough high-quality chances since they're also quite bad at getting accurate crosses into the box.
Under Amorim against non-relegated teams, they're averaging just 1.08 xG per 90 minutes.
I like the value on Manchester United not to score in this match at +200.
Manchester United vs. Aston Villa Betting Picks
- Ollie Watkins Anytime Goalscorer (-105)
- Morgan Rogers to Score or Assist (-120)
- Manchester United Team Total Under 0.5 (+200)
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