This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
French Open 2025: Third Round Underdog Upsets and Betting Insights
The third round of the French Open begins Thursday from the clay courts of Stade Roland Garros in Paris, France. A battle of Grand Slam champions on the women's side could come down to the wire while a teenager looks to continue her meteoric rise with what would be the biggest win of her young career. There will be plenty of Americans in action in both the men's and women's draw, including a couple of favorites set up to keep taking care of business.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the French Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous clay court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
French Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Jelena Ostapenko (+195) vs. Elena Rybakina
This battle between one-time Grand Slam champions feels much closer to a toss-up than the odds suggest. Both are big hitters who don't like to get pushed back and defend. Rybakina has the far better serve, but playing on clay neutralizes that advantage to an extent compared to other surfaces. Their head-to-head is 3-2 overall for Rybakina, including 1-0 on clay, though these two haven't faced off since 2023. Both have had strong clay-court seasons in 2025, with Ostapenko at 10-3 and Rybakina at 8-2, though Ostapenko has posted the more impressive wins, beating both Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka, so the 21st-seeded Latvian won't be intimidated against an opponent seeded nine spots above her.
Victoria Mboko (+350) vs. Qinwen Zheng
Mboko has turned heads with her run at this tournament, as the 18-year-old Canadian has yet to drop a set through three qualifying wins and two more in the main draw. She has been piling up wins at all levels with a 42-5 record overall in 2025, so Mboko shouldn't be short on confidence for this matchup against the eighth-seeded Zheng. While Zheng has posted some impressive clay-court results, winning Olympic gold at this venue last year and reaching the semifinals of the Italian Open leading up to this event, she has also taken some surprising losses in 2025. Her four losses to players ranked 39th or worse in 2025 include a second-round Australian Open exit at the hands of 97th-ranked Laura Siegemund.
Honorable Mention
Daniel Altmaier (+140) vs. Hamad Medjedovic
French Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Amanda Anisimova (-215) vs. Clara Tauson
Anisimova has quietly mowed down the opposition, dropping just six games en route to the third round. The 23-year-old American seems to have found the form that helped her reach the semifinals of the 2019 French Open and capture a WTA 1000 title in Doha earlier this year. Both Anisimova and Tauson cover up pedestrian movement with aggressive court positioning and excellent timing. Given their form in this tournament so far, Anisimova will likely manage to stick with plan A while Tauson gets pushed back into playing more defense. While the 16th-seeded Anisimova has cruised so far, the 22nd-seeded Tauson has been off her game, needing three sets to get past Magda Linette in the first round before escaping with a 7-6 (2), 7-5 win over Arantxa Rus in Round 2, despite those two opponents having a combined 14-22 career French Open main-draw record.
Ben Shelton (-175) vs. Matteo Gigante
Shelton will be well-rested for this match after getting a walkover against Hugo Gaston in Round 2. The 13th-seeded American overcame Lorenzo Sonego in five sets in a first-round rematch of their Australian Open quarterfinal encounter, and while Shelton won't be mistaken for a clay-court specialist, he demonstrated decent aptitude for the surface by reaching the final in Munich last month. Gigante's coming off the biggest win of his career against the reeling Stefanos Tsitsipas, but the 167th-ranked Italian hadn't won a Grand Slam main draw match prior to this tournament at age 23, so he's much more likely to be overwhelmed by the moment than Shelton.
Honorable Mention
Liudmila Samsonova (-175) vs. Dayana Yastremska
French Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Karen Khachanov (-140) vs. Tommy Paul
Paul persevered to erase a two-set deficit against 124th-ranked Marton Fucsovics in the second round, but the American was clearly feeling less than 100 percent physically. The 24th-seeded Khachanov embraces physical, grinding rallies while also possessing more skill than Fucsovics, who served for the match against the 12th-seeded Paul in the fourth set. Khachanov has made two previous quarterfinals at the French Open, while Paul has never advanced past the third round here. While Paul has won both of their previous encounters in a deciding set, he didn't have the same questions about his physical capabilities swirling around for those matches with Khachanov.
Nuno Borges (+100) vs. Alexei Popyrin
Borges was aided by Casper Ruud's knee injury, but he'll nonetheless take plenty of confidence from his 2-6, 6-4, 6-1, 6-0 second-round win over the two-time French Open finalist. The world No. 41 is most comfortable on clay, where he won his lone career title in Bastad last year, beating Rafael Nadal in the final. Popyrin's aggressive style is better-suited for faster surfaces, which is why the 25th-ranked Aussie came into this year's tournament with a 1-6 career record at the French Open.
Honorable Mention
Sebastian Korda (-130) vs. Frances Tiafoe
