Fourth-round action continue Wednesday on the hard courts of Indian Wells, California. A local American underdog will look to ride the crowd's support to an upset win, while reliable veterans try to take care of business against lower-ranked Cinderella stories.
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All men's and women's singles matches at Indian Wells are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Indian Wells Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Alex Michelsen (+251) vs. Daniil Medvedev
Michelsen's buddy and fellow young Californian Learner Tien has given Medvedev fits in their matches, knocking the lanky Russian out of the last two Australian Opens, so perhaps Michelsen has picked up a scouting report for this matchup. The 21-year-old Michelsen hasn't replicated his 20-year-old compatriot's success against Medvedev, with a 0-3 head-to-head record, but Michelsen's belief level should be boosted for this battle with the No. 11 seed after he took out No. 7 seed Taylor Fritz in the previous round. Medvedev has hard-court losses to Ugo Humbert (whom Michelsen defeated in the second round here) and Stefanos Tsitsipas in addition to Tien this year, so while Medvedev seems to be bouncing back from a down year in 2025, he has still shown some vulnerability on his favorite surface.
Honorable Mention
Karolina Muchova (+141) vs. Iga Swiatek
Indian Wells Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Jack Draper (+116) vs. Novak Djokovic
Draper has now won eight consecutive matches at Indian Wells, and the 2025 champion is playing his way into form here after recently returning from a shoulder injury. Djokovic seems to be having injury issues of his own, as his arm was clearly bothering him during his. 6-4, 1-6, 6-4 third-round win over Aleksander Kovacevic, during which Djokovic's second-serve speed dropped to well below normal levels. Both of Djokovic's matches here have gone three sets against opponents ranked outside the top 50. The 14th-seeded Draper is a big step up in level of competition, and while Draper has played some of his best tennis on the gritty hard courts of Indian Wells, Djokovic has struggled at this tournament in recent years, as the third-ranked Serb is trying to reach the quarterfinals for the first time in six appearances dating back to 2017.
Honorable Mention
Jessica Pegula (-185) vs. Belinda Bencic
Indian Wells Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Cameron Norrie (-314) vs. Rinky Hijikata
Norrie has played some of his best tennis over the years in the slow hard-court conditions at Indian Wells, with an 18-4 record here since the start of his Indian Wells title run in 2021. The southpaw added to his success here with a straight-sets win over No. 6 seed Alex de Minaur in the third round, and Norrie likely won't need to change his game plan much to beat de Minaur's 117th-ranked compatriot Hijikata. Like de Minaur, Hijikata's a strong defender but far from the biggest hitter on tour, and this is already the best Masters 1000 result of the 25-year-old Hijikata's career, as he hadn't previously made it past the second round in 10 Masters 1000 main draw appearances.
Elina Svitolina (-337) vs. Katerina Siniakova
Svitolina has raced out to a 17-3 start in 2026, and the No. 9 seed is showing no signs of slowing down ahead of this favorable fourth-round matchup against the 44th-ranked doubles specialist Siniakova. The Czech underdog is coming off a 4-6, 7-6 (5), 6-3 upset win over defending champion Mirra Andreeva in the third round, but that success was aided by Andreeva's own mistakes as the talented teenager's frustration got the best of her. The 31-year-old Svitolina is far more level-headed at this stage of her career and has a high floor to her game, which will be difficult for the Siniakova to reach considering the latter has never been ranked in the top 25 in singles at age 29. Svitolina leads their head-to-head 4-0, all on hard courts.
Honorable Mention
Elena Rybakina (-599) vs. Sonay Kartal
