This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
French Open 2025: Alcaraz Defends, Swiatek Faces Tough Path in Paris
The second Grand Slam of 2025 begins Sunday, May 25 from the clay courts of Stade Roland Garros in Paris, France. Defending men's French Open champion Carlos Alcaraz is looking to add a fifth Grand Slam title to his resume, while world No. 1 Jannik Sinner brings a 14-match Grand Slam winning streak into this event, and 24-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic can never be counted out. Iga Swiatek has won the women's event each of the previous three years, but she has a daunting path ahead of her, including a possible semifinal showdown with No. 1 seed and pre-tournament favorite Aryna Sabalenka. American Coco Gauff and teenage sensation Mirra Andreeva are also top contenders for the women's French Open title.
Before we get to the favorites, contenders and sleepers at the French Open, let's acknowledge some notable injuries and absences. There are relatively few high-profile injuries on either tour at the moment, though the French Open draw won't feel the same without retired 14-time champion Rafael Nadal. Fellow former Grand Slam champions Andy Murray and Dominic Thiem also retired prior to the start of the 2025 season, and 2018 women's French Open champion Simona Halep announced her retirement in February. On the bright side, former women's Grand Slam winners Barbora Krejcikova and Marketa Vondrousova have recovered from the respective back and hip injuries that have cost them most of the 2025 season, and Petra Kvitova has returned from maternity leave, substantially bolstering the Czech contingent at Roland Garros.
Any champion on the men's side other than Alcaraz or Sinner would be a major surprise, as the title odds drop off substantially after the two major favorites. The women's draw is a little more open, with Sabalenka, Swiatek, Gauff and Andreeva all boasting decent title odds, and even 2024 runner-up Jasmine Paolini coming in with similar odds of winning the trophy to the third-likeliest men's contender (Djokovic).
After each player's name below, you will see their title odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Other best sports betting sites for betting both tennis futures and individual matches include FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook. Tennis Odds & Lines can vary quite substantially, especially for long shots, so you are encouraged to shop around for the best lines if you have access to multiple sports betting apps. We offer exclusive sportsbook promos in states where sports betting has gone live.
French Open Picks: Men's Tournament
The Favorite
Carlos Alcaraz (+100) - Alcaraz has taken some uncharacteristic losses on faster surfaces, but he has a much higher floor on slower clay, where he can fall back on elite athleticism and feel when his timing's a little off. His 15-1 clay-court record in 2025 includes a 7-6 (5), 6-1 win over Sinner in the final of the Rome Masters 1000 last week, which was Alcaraz's fourth consecutive win in their head-to-head since the start of 2024. Alcaraz is seeded No. 2, and his path to defending his 2024 French Open title could include a fourth-round matchup against Stefanos Tsitsipas and quarterfinal against Casper Ruud. His chalk semifinal opponent would probably be No. 8 seed Lorenzo Musetti rather than No. 4 Taylor Fritz given the surface, while Sinner and Djokovic are on the opposite half of the draw and couldn't face Alcaraz until the final. Tsitsipas and Ruud have both reached the French Open final before, but Alcaraz's combined 15-2 head-to-head edge over those two and Musetti supports Alcaraz's status as the overwhelming favorite to emerge out of the bottom half of the draw.
In the Mix
Jannik Sinner (+225) - Sinner's only loss this year has come against Alcaraz, and the Italian has a 14-match Grand Slam winning streak rolling, but he would be the underdog against Alcaraz if they meet in the championship match here given Alcaraz's recent head-to-head edge, which includes a five-set win by the Spaniard in the semifinals of last year's French Open. While Sinner's most comfortable on hard courts, his drop off on clay isn't significant, and he has generally been far less susceptible to surprise losses than Alcaraz. Arthur Fils or Andrey Rublev could present some resistance in the Round of 16, while potential quarterfinal opponents Jack Draper and Jakub Mensik each picked up a Masters 1000 title while Sinner served a three-month suspension in February through April. Alexander Zverev or Novak Djokovic would both have realistic shots of upsetting Sinner in the semifinals, though the big-hitting Italian is the clear favorite to win the top half, just as Alcaraz is favored in the bottom half.
Novak Djokovic (+1200) - Djokovic is the best of the rest in terms of title odds after Alcaraz and Sinner. The Serbian legend's body is starting to let him down a bit at age 38, but Djokovic is still supremely fit and has an unparalleled mind for the game, both in terms of mental toughness and strategic adjustments. Only three of his 24 career Grand Slam titles have come at the French Open, but that relative dearth of championships can be chalked up to overlapping with prime Nadal, and Djokovic has won two of the last four French Opens. He also added an Olympic gold medal on clay last year, but Djokovic has noticeably lost a step since then, suffering first-round losses in four of his last six events. He'll be more motivated and tougher to take out in the best-of-five set Grand Slam format, but Djokovic has no shortage of high-profile opponents in his path as the No. 6 seed. He could face Daniil Medvedev in the Round of 16, Zverev in the quarterfinals, Sinner in the semis and Alcaraz in the final. That's a gauntlet that prime Djokovic could certainly handle, but it's an awfully tall order for the 2025 version.
Alexander Zverev (+1800) - Zverev remains arguably the best player without a Grand Slam title to his name. He reached the final here last year, losing in five sets to Alcaraz, and Zverev fell in straight sets to Sinner in this year's Australian Open final. Beating both of them back-to-back seems highly unlikely for the No. 3 seed, especially since Zverev would potentially first face Djokovic in the quarterfinals before a semifinal against Sinner. Zverev has been off his game since reaching the Australian Open championship match, falling short of the semifinals in all but one of his 11 subsequent tournaments. He has made the semifinals or better in each of the past four French Opens, though, so it wouldn't be surprising to see Zverev contending deep into the second week here again.
Four other players make the oddsmakers' list of secondary contenders with odds of +4000 or better: Lorenzo Musetti (+2500), Casper Ruud (+2800), Jack Draper (+4000) and Holger Rune (+4000). Musetti has excelled at the clay-court Masters 1000 events this year, reaching the final in Monte Carlo and semifinals of both Madrid and Rome. The eighth-seeded Italian has an excellent opportunity to make another semifinal in the same section of the draw as No. 4 seed Taylor Fritz (+8000), who prefers faster surfaces. Ruud reached the French Open final in both 2022 and 2023, and he captured his first Masters 1000 title on the clay courts of Madrid earlier this month, but Alcaraz is the chalk quarterfinal opponent for the seventh-seeded Norwegian.
The fifth-seeded Draper's enjoying a breakout season and has showcased an all-court game by reaching the final of Madrid on clay after winning a Masters 1000 title on the hard courts of Indian Wells this year. He comes in with a career record of 0-2 at the French Open, though, and the Brit has a tough draw even before a potential quarterfinal clash with Sinner. Rune has the only clay-court win over Alcaraz this year, and while the 22-year-old Dane has yet to get past the quarterfinal stage at a Grand Slam, he has an intriguing opportunity to do so here as the No. 10 seed in the same section of the draw as Fritz and Musetti.
Sleepers
Arthur Fils (+6000) - Fils could become the best French hope to win the men's singles title since Jannik Noah in 1983, which feels especially long ago considering Jannik's son Joakim Noah of Gators and Bulls basketball fame turned 40 earlier this year. Like Noah, Fils is an emotional player who feeds off the crowd's energy, and the 20-year-old Frenchman comes into this tournament boasting a career-high No. 14 ranking. The prolific shot-maker can hang with anybody when he's on, having beaten Zverev and pushed Alcaraz to the limit in a tight three-setter this year. If Fils can get past No. 17 seed Andrey Rublev in the third round, it would likely set up one of the hottest tickets in Paris in a Round of 16 matchup against Sinner.
Joao Fonseca (+8000) - Fonseca has the potential to follow in the footsteps of Brazilian legend Gustavo Kuerten and win this tournament multiple times. The talented 18-year-old's chances of taking the title in his French Open debut are slim, though it's a feat Nadal pulled off at the same age in 2005. Fonseca's easy power off the ground allows him to penetrate the slow clay like few players can, and it's likely that his chances of winning the title will look substantially stronger by next year's French Open. He has a tough first-round draw against Hubert Hurkacz and could face Jack Draper in Round 3, though Fonseca would have to get through players of that caliber anyway to be viewed as a realistic title contender.
Francisco Cerundolo (+10000) - Since the start of Indian Wells in March, Cerundolo has gone a perfect 12-0 against opponents ranked outside the top 15 and a respectable 4-6 against top-15 competition, including a win over Zverev on clay in Madrid. The 18th-seeded Argentine landed in the same section as No. 16 seed Grigor Dimitrov, so Cerundolo doesn't have a top-15 opponent in his path until a possible Round of 16 rematch against Zverev. Clay has always been Cerundolo's best surface, as he has a .616 career clay-court win rate and .720 mark on clay in 2025, and he's playing the best tennis of his career at age 26.
French Open Picks: Women's Tournament
The Favorite
Aryna Sabalenka (+260) - With Iga Swiatek slipping this season, Sabalenka has become the unquestioned player to beat on the WTA Tour. The big-hitting Belarusian's 34-6 in 2025 and has made at least the semifinals in eight of her last nine Grand Slam appearances, with the lone exception being a quarterfinal exit at the French Open last year. That being said, there's a reason why Sabalenka's a clear underdog against the field here despite having opened up a gap of nearly 4,000 ranking points between herself and world No. 2 Coco Gauff. Sabalenka's undoubtedly at her best on hard courts, as the three-time Grand Slam champion has yet to make a Grand Slam final on grass or clay. She's in the same half of the draw as the fifth-seeded Swiatek -- Iga leads their head-to-head 8-4 overall and 5-1 on clay. Danielle Collins as a possible third-round opponent, Amanda Anisimova or Clara Tauson in the Round of 16, and Qinwen Zheng in the quarterfinals are also players that Sabalenka can't afford to look past as she prepares for the potential semifinal showdown against Swiatek.
In the Mix
Iga Swiatek (+350) - Swiatek has won this tournament each of the previous three years and four of the past five, but she has been off all year, resulting in Swiatek dropping out of the top two in the rankings for the first time since March of 2022 as she tumbled down to No. 5 this month. Occasional dips on faster surfaces are nothing new, but Iga has been uncharacteristically beatable on her favorite clay courts, failing to reach a final at either clay-court WTA 1000 event in Madrid or Rome for the first time since 2020. She's just 6-3 on clay in 2025 after having posted an 89 percent career win rate on the surface heading into this year. Further complicating Swiatek's path is a brutal draw. Emma Raducanu and Linda Noskova are tricky potential opponents in the second and third round, respectively, but things could really get difficult in the Round of 16 against Elena Rybakina or Jelena Ostapenko. Rybakina and Swiatek have a tied 4-4 career head-to-head, while Ostapenko is remarkably 6-0 against Swiatek, including a clay-court win this year. After that, Swiatek could face Jasmine Paolini in the quarterfinals for what would be a rematch of last year's championship match, just to set up a semifinal against Sabalenka.
Coco Gauff (+500) - Gauff has had a strong clay-court season, reaching WTA 1000 finals in both Madrid and Rome before falling to Sabalenka and Paolini, respectively. Those results helped the 21-year-old American secure the No. 2 seed at this tournament, which landed Gauff in the comparably softer bottom half of the draw. Guaff's excellent defense makes her a perennially tough out on clay, and she has reached the quarterfinals or better at each of the past four French Opens, including a runner-up finish in 2022 and semifinal in 2024. On paper, Gauff has the easiest path to the quarterfinals of any top-eight seed, as the top-ranked player in her way is No. 15 seed Barbora Krejcikova, who has yet to regain form after an extensive absence due to a back injury. Gauff could face Madison Keys or Emma Navarro in an all-American quarterfinal showdown, then Mirra Andreeva or yet another American in Jessica Pegula in the semis. With Sabalenka, Swiatek and Paolini all in the top half of the draw, this is a golden opportunity for Gauff in the bottom half.
Mirra Andreeva (+500) - Andreeva has officially arrived as a top contender at the biggest tournaments, showing that she's ready to challenge for the biggest titles by winning consecutive WTA 1000 events in Dubai and Indian Wells this year. Prior to those two hard-court titles, Andreeva's best results had come on clay, including a semifinal showing at the French Open last year, and she had respectable quarterfinal outings in both Madrid and Rome this year. The 18-year-old Russian has added significant muscle to her frame over the past year, allowing her to better absorb power and show off her world-class variety and ability to redirect the ball. Andreeva landed in the bottom half of the draw as the No. 6 seed, with 10th-seeded Paula Badosa as a possible fourth-round opponent, Pegula in the quarterfinals and Gauff in the semis. Should Andreeva reach her first Grand Slam final here, she would have reason to be optimistic in a potential matchup against Sabalenka or Swiatek -- Andreeva beat Sabalenka in the quarterfinals of last year's French Open and is 2-0 against Swiatek in 2025.
Jasmine Paolini (+1400) - Paolini just continues to rack up wins. The Italian recently thrilled the crowd by taking home a WTA 1000 title in Rome, and she's 14-3 in her last 17 matches, with two of the losses coming against Sabalenka and two clay-court wins over Gauff during that span. If not for a tough draw, the No. 4 seed would have substantially better odds of winning this title after reaching the final here last year. Unfortunately for Paolini, she could face Elina Svitolina, Swiatek and Sabalenka back-to-back-to-back, just to get back to the final.
Six other players have title odds of +5000 or better in a deep women's draw: Qinwen Zheng (+2200), Elena Rybakina (+3500), Jelena Ostapenko (+4000), Elina Svitolina (+4000), Madison Keys (+5000) and Karolina Muchova (+5000). Zheng showed she has what it takes to win a high-profile title at Roland Garros by capturing Olympic gold at this venue last year, and the No. 8 seed just picked up a win over potential quarterfinal opponent Sabalenka in Rome after having won only one set in their previous six encounters. Rybakina's constantly dealing with ailments, but she's a top-five player when healthy and clicking. Ostapenko's red-line approach gives her a low floor and high ceiling, and the 2017 French Open champion's head-to-head dominance against Swiatek should give Ostapenko plenty of confidence should they face off, though Ostapenko would first have to get through Rybakina.
Svitolina has enjoyed a resurgent 2025 campaign, with a 25-8 record overall and 14-2 mark on clay. The 30-year-old Ukrainian has never quite been able to get over the hump in the latter stages of a Grand Slam, but she has made three major semifinals and nine additional quarterfinals, including four at the French Open. She would have plenty of confidence heading into a potential Round of 16 matchup against Paolini, as Svitolina beat Paolini 2-6, 6-4, 6-0 at the Australian Open this year. Keys is seeded seventh, and the Australian Open champion has been playing with confidence all year. The big-hitting American is only 5-3 on clay compared to 19-3 on hard courts in 2025, but landing in the bottom half of the draw boosts Keys' title hopes a bit. Muchova's a legitimate title contender if healthy, but that's a big if considering an illness and wrist injury knocked her out of Madrid and Rome before she could play a single match. The 2023 French Open finalist missed the tournament in 2024 due to injury and is seeded 14th as Pegula's chalk fourth-round opponent in the bottom half of the draw.
Sleepers
Jessica Pegula (+6500) - Pegula's a nice value here as the No. 3 seed in the weaker half of the draw. Given the uncertainty over Muchova's health, Pegula has a relatively straightforward path to the quarterfinals. She would be the underdog against Andreeva if chalk holds to that point, but Pegula should at least have some belief in that round, having reached the final of the U.S. Open last year after previously going 0-6 in Grand Slam quarterfinals, including the 2022 French Open.
Ekaterina Alexandrova (+13000) - Alexandrova's a high-variance player due to the minimal margin in her game, but she's dangerous when things are clicking. The 20th-ranked Russian won a hard-court WTA 500 title in Linz earlier this year and has reached three semifinals -- a hard-court WTA 1000 semifinal in Doha and two clay-court semis at 500-level events. Alexandrova has four straight-set clay-court wins this year over players currently ranked in the top 10, having taken out Andreeva, Pegula, Zheng and Diana Shnaider. The 30-year-old Russian has never been able to put it all together at a Grand Slam, as she hasn't even reached the quarterfinals before, but she has a nice early draw here in Krejcikova's section before a potential fourth-round matchup against Gauff.
Alexandra Eala (+20000) - Eala shocked the tennis world at the Miami Open, reaching the semifinals as a wild card and beating Ostapenko, Keys and Swiatek along the way. Having just celebrated her 20th birthday Friday, the 69th-ranked Filipina will look to put together another Cinderella run in what will be her first career Grand Slam main draw appearance. She could get a chance at another notable upset against Zheng in the second round.
Picks to Win the French Open
Sinner has been a notch above the rest of the ATP Tour except Alcaraz since the start of 2024, and Alcaraz's occasional lapses don't cost him nearly as much on clay as they do on hard courts, so it's hard to see anybody standing in the way of what would be the first Grand Slam final meeting between the two young faces of the ATP Tour. With Alcaraz having won the last four meetings between the two, I'm picking Carlos Alcaraz to defend his title by beating Sinner in a chalky final. If anyone's going to play spoiler and take out on of the top two seeds, Fils has as good a chance as anyone in the Round of 16 against Sinner.
Whichever player emerges from the top half of the women's draw will be battle-tested but also quite possibly fatigued from getting through that gauntlet. With far fewer contenders in the bottom half, Andreeva or Gauff could have a freshness advantage in the championship match against the winner of the top half. I'm picking Mirra Andreeva to take home her first Grand Slam title here, beating Sabalenka in the final.
