We're honing in on two weekend matchups in Week 6, focusing on whether the two favorites can manage to cover a pair of fairly disparate spreads.
Read on for a look at which Week 6 UFL betting scenarios catch my eye on DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook.
Memphis Showboats at Houston Roughnecks Best Bets (Saturday May 3, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Showboats are in the cellar of the USFL Conference at 1-4, and they have a 34-point differential (74-108). Memphis' one win did come on the road and against the defending champion Stallions at that, but the struggles and inconsistency have been prominent on either side of the ball.
The Showboats come into Saturday's matchup averaging the third-fewest total yards (255.6) and have managed to muster a league-low 3.3 yards per carry. Memphis has also yielded the third-most yards per game (283.8), including the third-most rushing yards (128.6) at the second-most yards per carry (4.5).
All of those metrics are worrisome for Memphis going into a matchup with the improving Roughnecks, which are now 2-3 and seem to have found something on offense behind mobile veteran signal-caller Jalan McClendon. Houston dominated the Brahmas by a 27-3 score in Week 5 with help from McClendon's 188 total yards, and he earned that start with a 236-yard effort in emergency duty in Week 4, a performance that also included a rushing touchdown.
McClendon has now had two full weeks and the Week 5 game to take first-team reps and familiarize himself with a solid group of skill-position weapons that includes Zaquandre White, Justin Hall, Keke Chism and Emmanuel Butler. Then, while new Memphis QB Dresser Winn turned heads with his 246 total yards and passing TD in the upset victory against Birmingham, he's had trouble with ball security dating back to his college days at Tennesee-Martin, where he tossed 24 interceptions in 33 games (25 starts).
The Roughnecks' defense has started to find its way as well after a rough start, and they're coming off having picked off Kellen Mond and Jarrett Guarantano once apiece in Week 5 while also limiting them to a combined 41.7 percent completion rate. With Houston at home and starting to gain some confidence, I'll go with them to cover the lower spread on DK.
UFL Picks for Showboats at Roughnecks
- Roughnecks -3.5 (-110 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
San Antonio Brahmas at Birmingham Stallions (Sunday, May 4, 4:00 p.m. ET)
We just alluded to the Brahmas' embarrassing loss to the Roughnecks in Week 5, a game that truly underscored the quarterback problem San Antonio has at the moment. Kellen Mond was benched in favor of Jarrett Guarantano to no avail, as was just detailed in the Showboats-Roughnecks breakdown above.
With the most important position on offense unsettled, the rest of the unit is essentially set up to struggle despite having some explosive talents such as Anthony McFarland, Jontre Kirklin and Jacob Harris. That much was evident versus Houston, and the defensive matchup gets exponentially tougher versus the Stallions in this Week 6 matchup.
Birmingham will likely be in an especially ornery mood after its 24-20 upset home loss to the Showboats in Week 5, and fill-in quarterback Case Cookus should be that much better after another week of practice with his talented offensive teammates. Cookus worked off a good bit of rust in Week 5 by putting up 33 pass attempts. The veteran signal-caller got better as the game went along and finished with a pair of touchdowns and 83 rushing yards on just six rush attempts.
Cookus once helped lead the Philadelphia Stars to the USFL Championship Game against these same Stallions back in 2022, and I expect to see a quarterback that much more closely resembles that player than the shaky one that struggled for a half-plus versus Memphis. The Brahmas should be very good facilitators if this season's body of work is any indication, as the 1-4 squad has given up a UFL-high 130 points while scoring a league-low 68.
The Brahmas have conceded a UFL-high 332.4 total yards per contest, including a league-high 137 rushing yards per game. The high probability of the Stallions being able to run a very balanced offense as a result of this vulnerability automatically ups the chances of a comfortable victory, as does the fact Birmingham's defense has allowed a UFL-low 15.8 points per game and 86.8 rushing yards per contest (at a league-low 3.6 yards per carry).
The Stallions only have a +6-point differential on the season, but this squad has demonstrated the ability to pull away from teams on multiple occasions over the years. As a result, even though this is a big number, I'm backing Birmingham to cover it considering a straight moneyline bet on them is untenable (-535 and -490 on DK and FD, respectively).
UFL Picks for Brahmas at Stallions
- Stallions -10 (-110 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
UFL Week 6 Best Bets Recap
- Defenders +3.5 (-110 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Stallions -10 (-110 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
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