This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Top MLB Bets for June 4: Expert Picks and SGPs
2025 Betting Record: 12-15 (-4.68 units)
2025 Player Props Betting Record: 10-8 (+0.94 units)
On Wednesday's robust slate, I'm looking at an interleague and AL matchup for which I have contrasting offensive expectations.
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MLB Picks for Royals at Cardinals
- Under 2.5 runs - F3 (-115 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Under 4.5 runs - F5 (-114 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
Kansas City Royals at St. Louis Cardinals Best Bets
Talented young left-hander Noah Cameron and savvy veteran righty Miles Mikolas do battle in this interleague battle of Missouri teams, setting the stage for what could be a low-scoring first several innings.
Cameron has shown the poise of a much more seasoned hurler through his first four starts. He's allowed no more than one earned run in any of those turns on his way to a 1.05 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. The southpaw isn't a big swing-and-miss asset by any stretch, but he's done an admirable job keeping the ball in the park (0.7 HR/9) and limiting hard contact (4.1% barrel rate, 37.8% hard-hit rate allowed).
The Cardinals have been a fairly solid team against left-handers at home, producing a .268 average, .720 OPS and .319 wOBA in that split over the last month of play. However, Cameron has pitched to a .231 xBA and .292 xwOBA, supporting the notion his impressive surface stats aren't a mirage. He's also pitched to a .143 BAA with runners in scoring position along with .059 and .229 BAAs the first and second time, respectively, through the opponent's order.
Mikolas has chugged along to what appears to be another respectable season, working around a nightmarish Fenway Park start in his second outing of 2025 to forge a 4-2 record, 3.90 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Other than the outlier against Boston, he's allowed more than three earned runs only once in his other 10 starts, and he's currently carrying an 0.5 HR/9 that serves as his career low outside of the 1.2-inning sample that made up his 2013 season in San Diego.
Mikolas does pitch to contact and has a middling .235 BAA with runners in scoring position, as well as respective .250 and .227 BAAs his first and second time through an opponent's order. It's also important to note that those already respectable numbers are still being partly skewed by the tough day against the Red Sox, when Mikolas gave up nine runs on 11 hits in just 2.2 innings.
The Royals have had some success against righties on the road recently, but they're still averaging just 3.6 runs per road game (3.3 per contest overall), keeping me on the Under for both the first three and five innings.
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MLB Picks for Twins at Athletics
- Both teams to score 2+ runs - F5 (+105 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Over 4.5 runs - F5 (-194 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
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Minnesota Twins at Athletics Best Bets
This matchup of two talented lineups against inconsistent starting pitchers seems to hold plenty of promise when it comes to offense, and that guides the bets that stand out from this late-night clash.
After some uncertainty, it appears the Athletics have settled on southpaw Jeffrey Springs to oppose the Twins' Zebby Matthews for Wednesday night's game. Matthews checks in with an 0-1 record, 6.43 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 1.3 HR/9 across his first three starts. He does miss plenty of bats as evidenced by a 13.5 K/9, but he's also pitched to a 7.20 ERA, .282 BAA and .348 wOBA on the road thus far over a modest 10-inning sample.
The Athletics have also been a scrappy bunch against right-handed pitching at home in the last month, generating a .264 average, 10.5% walk rate, 19.4% strikeout rate, .337 wOBA and +8.0 wRAA in that split. What's more, they sit just outside the top 10 in all of MLB with 2.73 runs per first five innings per home game.
On the other side, Springs is in the midst of a rollercoaster season and comes in having given up six earned runs on six hits and six walks over just two innings to the Blue Jays his last time on the mound. The southpaw has allowed at least three earned runs in seven of 12 starts. He went five innings or less in four of those seven outings, and in the three where he surpassed the five-inning mark, he still surrendered all his runs within the first five frames.
The Twins have started to heat up against left-handers on the road of late as well, producing a .279 average, .941 OPS and .400 wOBA against southpaws over the last two weeks of play. Springs has also allowed a .909 OPS his first time through an opponent's order, and 22 extra-base hits overall his first and second time through.
Minnesota has run totals of 12, 10 and 10 – the last two coming in the first two games of this series -- during its current West Coast swing. I look for the hot offense to continue to a degree in the first half of Wednesday night's battle.
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MLB Picks Recap
- Royals-Cardinals Under 2.5 runs - F3 (-115 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Royals-Cardinals Under 4.5 runs - F5 (-114 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Both Twins and Athletics to score 2+ runs - F5 (+105 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Twins-Athletics Over 4.5 runs - F5 (-194 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
