This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Top MLB Bets for May 28: Expert Picks and SGPs
2025 Betting Record: 9-15 (-7.76 units)
2025 Player Props Betting Record: 10-7 (+1.94 units)
We have a full day of MLB action Wednesday, and I'm looking at an NL and interleague clash apiece where I expect pitching to get the best of the opposition's bats.
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MLB Picks for Pirates at Diamondbacks
- Under 1.5 runs - F3 (+135 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Under 3.5 runs - F5 (+104 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
A matchup between two accomplished hurlers is always fertile ground for a potential low-scoring game, and we have such a scenario on paper in this Paul Skenes-Zac Gallen showdown.
The ultra-talented Skenes is forced to toil away on a mostly hapless Pirates squad for the time being, but the young righty is doing an admirable job of rising above the morass with a 2.36 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 0.5 HR/9 that all belie his 3-5 record significantly. Skenes also sports a 9.2 K/9 and is averaging a scorching 98 mph on his heater, which has helped lead to a 13.1% swinging strike rate.
Skenes has allowed just a single earned run apiece in each of his last three trips to the mound, and no more than three in eight consecutive outings. What's more, he's been at his best on the road, where he sports a 1.40 ERA, two of his three wins and a 10.0 K/9 across a sample of 38.2 innings. He also boasts an unblemished ERA in the first two innings this season and BAAs of .183 and .152 his first and second time, respectively, through an opponent's order.
Gallen's 2025 story to date is somewhat the opposite of Skenes' in the sense that he has an ugly 3-6 mark and 5.25 ERA that aren't fully indicative of how he's pitched overall. The right-hander has a 4.15 xERA and has had his numbers skewed by a trio of rocky outings where he's given up either five or six earned runs.
His biggest trouble has come the first time through an opponent's order, but Wednesday, he's facing a Pirates team that's averaging the sixth-fewest runs per first five innings per road game (1.62) and who's been MLB's most punchless against righties on the road in May with a .181 average, .497 OPS, .230 wOBA and -16.6 wRAA in that split.
Gallen is a quality pitcher and still averages more than a strikeout per inning, and he certainly has enough talent to have a fighting chance to get the better of a Pittsburgh squad averaging only 6.8 hits and 2.5 runs per road game, both the second-lowest figures in all of MLB.
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MLB Picks for Reds at Royals
- Under 4.5 runs - F5 (-146 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Noah Cameron Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+100 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
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The Reds and Royals are teed up for what could be a fascinating pitcher's duel Wednesday, as triple-digit fastballer Hunter Greene does battle with highly impressive rookie Noah Cameron in an evening matchup. Greene looks set to finally fully deliver on his vast potential this season, but Cameron already looks the part of a seasoned vet through his first three major-league starts.
Greene has produced a 4-2 record, and that's accompanied by a 2.54 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 11.4 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9. He worked up to 83 pitches in his return from a stay on the injured list due to a groin strain in his last start, and he should have ample opportunity to get to at least five frames this time around considering the Royals have just a .287 wOBA against right-handers at home in May.
On the other side, Cameron carries a 1-1 record, 0.93 ERA and 0.67 WHIP into Wednesday's interleague battle. The young southpaw has yet to surrendered more than one earned run in any of his three starts, and he boasts an 11:1 K:BB in the last two trips to the mound after issuing five walks in his MLB debut. Cameron has operated with the poise of a much longer-tenured player and has yielded only seven hits over 19.1 innings after also putting together strong stints at both the Double-A and Triple-A levels in the last minor-league season plus.
On paper, Cameron is in a good position to continue his stellar start Wednesday considering not just his talent, but the opponent. The Reds have found left-handers an unsolvable riddle recently, especially on the road, where they have a 31.5% strikeout rate, .164 average, .459 OPS, .204 wOBA and MLB-worst -10.7 wRAA against southpaws in May.
Greene has held opponents to averages of .184, .221 and .059 his first three times through the order, while Cameron has even more impressive .040, .192 and .071 BAAs in those splits. Therefore, I'm going with the Under in the first five innings as a main bet, while an achievable strikeout prop for Cameron is also in play.
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MLB Picks Recap
- Pirates-Diamondbacks Under 1.5 runs - F3 (+135 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Pirates-Diamondbacks Under 3.5 runs - F5 (+104 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Reds-Royals Under 4.5 runs - F5 (-146 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Noah Cameron Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+100 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
