This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College Baseball Best Bet Today: Betting Pick for 4/19
That Oregon ML in a low-scoring smash was money. Grayson Grinsell made a STATEMENT against a top 25 team. His CG, 1 ER, 7 K performance was a grown man start. Saturday has arrived, and it's probably the most interesting day of the weekend. For a lot of series, it will be the final game, but there are still plenty of teams battling it out for game 2.
Easter may be a day away, but daddy is ready to EAT today!
UNC Tarheels (-160) @ Virginia Tech Hokies (+125) | Total: 11.5
Don't look now, but after a slow start to conference play the Tar Heels are firmly back in the mix for the ACC crown. They sit at 12-7, just a couple games back off the lead. The streaking Heels have won seven in a row and have taken their last four conference series since a bad showing at Louisville in the middle of March. After grabbing game one of the series, they'll look to lock it up against a streaky Hokies team.
The turning point for UNC was when they bumped star righty Jason DeCaro from the Friday role and inserted Jake Knapp. Knapp has been absolutely stellar this year (1.91 ERA, 8-0, .192 OBA). With the rotation change came Aidan Haugh moving from the Sunday spot to the Saturday spot. Haugh has been even better than Knapp with his 1.86 ERA, 56 K/16 BB ratio in 48.1 innings, yielding just a .176 OBA. In fact, since the start of ACC play, he's only surrendered five earned runs in six starts (34 innings).
The lynchpin for him is his ability to limit base runners in general, with just 47 hits + walks allowed in 48.1 innings (0.97 WHIP). Originally a 16th rounder to the Twins in the 2024 draft, Haugh elected to return to school, which seems to be a great decision as his stock continues to climb. Facing a V-Tech lineup that has mostly tailed off in recent weeks seems like a good matchup.
The Hokies offense is still capable though, led by Sam Tackett (.362 avg, 11 homers) and Jared Davis (.311 avg, 6 homers). This lineup does a bit of everything, but like UCLA, they don't standout in one area (.287 avg, 47 homers, 37 steals out of 52 tries). Limiting this offense revolves around neutralizing their main two producers above, which has been the calling card for Haugh.
On the other side, Jake Marciano will toe the rubber for the Hokies. The freshman's 4.65 ERA and .255 OBA against is decent, but he's had some shaky starts recently against FSU, Wake Forest, and Louisville. He allowed at least four earned runs in each start, with less than six innings respectively. The Heels lineup isn't what it was last year, but they've heated up recently, scoring 48 runs in their last five ACC games (9.6 runs per game).
With several contributors like Hunter Stokely (.327 avg, 11 homers) and Luke Stevenson (12 homers), and more leading the way, it's proven to be effective. Where they can get to Marciano is with the long ball (allowed nine already). It may be a pitching first Heels squad, but the offense is certainly capable of doing enough to provide support.
While it pains me to fade a Jersey Italian in Marciano, he's also from South Jersey/the shore, so I don't feel that bad. If he was from North Jersey, it would be much more difficult. In any case, not backing a guy with a sub-2.00 ERA is even more challenging. Love what I'm seeing from UNC, so we're rolling with them today.
Pick: UNC ML -160 (BetMGM)
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