This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College Baseball Conference Tournament Picks Today
This has been a weird week. The chaos is chaosing as usual, but I feel like we've been in this cat and mouse game. Georgia Tech played like the frauds they are yesterday, blowing a 3-0 lead against Clemson despite having the pitching and offensive advantages, which by the way cost me $2,000. Whatever, it's totally cool. Not worried about. No big deal...
On Monday, I did a preview of the SEC, ACC, and Big 12 tournaments. My Arizona +800 pick did in fact come home, so let's quietly clap it up for a nice hit. Still remaining, we have Vandy and UNC in the finals today in their respective conference chips, so let's hope we can get those home as well. Since we're sitting on those tickets already, I would prefer to not muddy the waters by doubling down and betting them in this game.
The series I didn't break down here was the Big West and its first conference tournament... of five teams. Hey, you have to start somewhere. Anyway, that one is worth a look here on this Sunday.
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Big West Conference Championship Game
UC Irvine Anteaters (-166) @ Cal Poly Mustangs (+130) | Total: 14.5
There are some feisty teams in the Big West, but this was always the most likely outcome for the the 1 and 2 seeds to duke it out. These two fought a war back in late-April when UCI went into Cal Poly and did the sweeparoo in three tight games. For Irvine, this game doesn't really matter. They're pretty much locked into a two-seed after squandering their clear path to hosting, a win or loss almost definitely yields the same result.
For Cal Poly, though, this may be the difference between a tournament bid or being left on the outside looking in. A lot of bubble teams will be watching this one closely as a couple of stolen bids have already taken place this week. I'll be nervous watching any game that has stolen bid potential since UVA is hanging in the balance on the bubble.
We have starting pitchers listed. UCI will be sending (likely the opener) Finnegan Wall to the bump, proud owner of a 6.85 ERA/1.75 WHIP. There's no getting around it, the Wall has been knocked down a lot in 2025. Well to be fair, I should he's only pitched 22.1 innings this year (23 K/13 BB), so the sample size isn't that big. The somewhat respectable 4.23 SIERA indicates some misfortunes. He'll see a Cal Poly offense that is "hit" over anything else.
The Mustangs lineup, batting .320, currently has six players batting .300 or better. The 54 homers is a little light, where Jack Collins (13 HR) is the only player in double figures. There's not much on the bases either (43 bags - 63 attempts). The approach is really death by a thousand cuts. The 'Eaters probably don't give more than three innings, maybe four, if all goes well. He just has to keep things in check.
The Big West pitcher of the Year in Ricky Ojeda should be able to do his usual piggy-back after Wall. Ojeda has been money this year and considering he won the award as a reliever speaks volumes. The one constant in this staff from the beginning of the year has been Ojeda (3.50 ERA, 79 K/26 BB, 61.2 IP). He threw only 37 pitches in Thursday's win over Hawaii, so he should be good to go for his usual three or four innings.
Cal Poly will trot Ethan Marmie out to the bump. His 5.68 ERA and 48 K/26 BB ratio in 63.1 IP has seen him spiral lately, failing to make five innings since 4/6 against UC San Diego. The Irvine offense has some dudes, too. As a team, they're batting .305 with 62 jacks. Jacob McCombs (.357 avg/1.074 OPS/10 HR), Colin Yeaman (.351 avg/1.083 OPS/13 HR), and Chase Call (.317 avg/1.031 OPS/9 HR) have been their three best hitters all year. Plus, Anthony Martinez still has a ton of pop despite the down year of five homers (.335 avg). Last time Marmie faced this offense, he didn't make it out of the second inning.
The layout of this tournament has essentially forced another weekend series with these two programs. UCI won Friday in a 15-3 run-rule. Saturday, Cal Poly won a 15-5 run-rule. Sunday being for all the marbles, I think this has a good chance to be another high-scoring affair. I like UCI to get the win, but the over 14.5 seems like it's really worth a shot. If you're inclined for both, DK is offering UCI ML/O14.5 SGP at +175, which isn't a bad look.
Pick: Over 14.5 -115 (DK)
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