This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
NCAA Baseball Tournament: Regionals Best Bets Today
As one Dak Prescott loves to say, "HERE WE GO!!" The NCAA Tournament is finally here. I feel like a kid the night before Christmas going to sleep, excited for Santa Claus to come down the chimney and leave me some fire prezzies under the tree.
Half the games are 1 seeds vs. 4 seeds, with almost all of them being virtually unbettable. Otherwise, we'll be looking primarily at 2 seeds vs. 3 seeds where the lines are a lot more playable.
We have a loaded slate for the Day One card, so I'll try and cover a few bangers for the team one time.
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Best Bets for Friday's Regional
Cincinnati +130 (Caesars) vs. Wake Forest
The Bearcats are live in this Knoxville Region. They're throwing a stud in ace Nathan Taylor, who's compiled an 84 K/32 BB ratio in 81 innings this year along with a 3.67 ERA. The ERA is bloated as well, as it was 2.54 heading into the home stretch of the regular season, but a disaster against TCU and a subpar outing vs. K State ballooned it.
Taylor has been extremely consistent this year. Going against a Wake Forest offense that's been a lot better on paper than in real life, especially lately, the matchup is a winnable one for Cincy. The Deacs' lineup may have put together a good showing overall with a .308 average and 100 HR this year, but a lot of their guys are losing steam.
It is an offensively driven team this season, but most of their guys have fallen off down the stretch. Kade Lewis (.392 avg/11 HR), Marek Houston (.351 avg/12 HR), and Jack Winnay (14 HR) have been the three best bats for this group, but are all prone to big swing and miss, which permeates throughout the lineup.
Blake Morningstar gets the ball for Wake, and it's fair to say he's their best starter. I do like Morningstar, not just because of his name either. The 2.71 ERA and 82 K/25 BB ratio in 73 IP marked a great year for the sophomore. He hasn't pitched in two full weeks, so there's always a rust versus rest question. He'll contend with Big 12 Player of the Year in Kerrington Cross (.399 avg/12 HR) and a Cincy offense that has a solid hit (.284 avg) and pop (70 HR) with a TON of speed (128 bags - 142 tries).
The Bearcat lineup is relentless on the tracks. This plays extremely well in this region as every other team is a bad matchup against the run game. The main horse in the run game has been Landyn Vidourek (37 steals - 38 tries), but he's facing an injury and uncertain status. It would be a big loss if he were unable to go. Still, I like this offense to put up enough runs on Morningstar and a bullpen that hasn't been great overall. The biggest thing is the fielding struggles Wake has had this year with a .963 fielding percentage that ranks 224th in the country.
Cincy has been playing for their postseason lives for a month now, and with a pitching advantage, they shouldn't be getting plus money like this. Let's go Bearcats.
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Fresno State +240 (BetRivers) vs. UCLA
Oh, baby! I know you sick freaks want some big plus money bangers. I know you want one of those 4 seeds to pull the upset. I do too! Fresno State may be the most likely 4 seed to win outright on Friday (along with USC Upstate). I've discussed this matchup at nauseum this week on my podcasts, but I will give you the short version.
Fresno has the pitching advantage here with Jack Anker, a talented junior with 107 K/12 BB in 91.1 IP. His 5.72 ERA is misleading as his SIERA 2.52. This is a talented dude for Fresno. The UCLA offense, and team is overrated that has a handful of good players and played an incredibly easy schedule. Offensively, it's a three-man show, but there's one dude that stands out above the rest in SS Roch Cholowsky, a 1.1 2026 candidate (.369 avg/23 HR). If he gets neutralized, then the Bruins' lineup may really be in trouble.
Michael Barnett is the projected, but unconfirmed, starter for the host UCLA team. Regardless, I'm not worried about who they throw because this staff has three solid Big 10 arms, but no true ace or dominant starter that I would trust. Barnett has had a decent year (4.18 ERA, 70 K, 16 BB, 71 IP) though. The bullpen has a few arms that are reliable with Wylan Moss being their main squeeze.
The Bulldogs' offense has some boppers and the line starts behind stud Murf Gray (.330 avg/18 HR), who could be a sneaky riser in this summer's draft. The Fresno lineup does a bit of everything with hit (.304 avg), pop (69 HR), and speed (52 bags), but they have a handful of players that will contribute.
I was fading UCLA coming into this regional anyway, but they are getting a more than frisky 4 seed that can win outright. They have the pitching advantage AND you're getting +240 on them. There's no way I can't take them.
UC Irvine -130 (DK) vs. Arizona State
Staying in the Los Angeles regional, UC Irvine and ASU battle it out in the two vs. three matchup. I picked Irvine to win the region because they are the most complete team. Their starting staff is good along with some strong bullpen arms, led by Big West Pitcher of the Year in Ricky Ojeda. The lineup has five perennial studs as well. This team knows how to win and maximize their talent.
ASU, on the other hand, is the most talented group in this region, but they do not know how to maximize it. The Sun Devils have blown a ton of leads this year thanks to an awful pen. Their starting pitchers like Ben Jacobs, who is throwing today, have off-the-charts potential, but don't like to put it together. And the offense is amazing, except for the fact that they go dark out of nowhere at the wrong times. Furthermore, that offense is almost entirely lefties, which is a problem when they face some of UCI's pen arms.
Irvine is going with Trevor Hansen and his 3.24 ERA and 87 K/29 BB ratio in 89 innings. He's delivered five quality starts in his last seven outings. Ojeda is almost definitely coming out of the pen at some point, which could be a tough draw for ASU's hitters.
Jacobs has sick stuff, which is why he's punched 114 tickets (78.2 IP) this season. But the consistency is nowhere to be found, along with the command (40 walks). Not only has that hindered his stat line and contributed to his 5.03 ERA, but it's prevented him from putting the hammer down on teams and letting them hang around. What's even worse is it's shortened his outings by an inning or two, which has caused ASU to lose a lot of his starts this year.
More times than not, consistency wins out in the tournament. I like Irvine.
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