FanDuel offers a nine-game main slate Saturday evening, with first pitch at 7:10 p.m. EDT. Blake Snell ($10,000) leads five payup pitching options that seemingly fit the same bill as we had last night; solid names, challenging matchups and questionable form throughout makes it difficult to fully back the cost.
We again have double-digit run totals with Diamondbacks-Rockies and Angels-Athletics, with the Diamondbacks (-184) being the slate's biggest favorite. Early weather looks dry. It's going to be very hot with mild winds in Kansas City, and a morning look suggests serious outbound wind in San Francisco, making that a spot to watch as evening approaches.
Pitching
Casey Mize, DET at MIN ($9,000): Mize hasn't been elite, but he's regained some form over his last two outings, and there's some reasonable familiarity with this divisional opponent. The Twins are 16-for-75 (.213) with a .724 OPS against him. He's faced them three times already this season, earning two quality starts and averaged 28.0 fantasy points. Again, not elite, he's not capable of matching the potential of those priced above him, but a seemingly stable 3x expectancy.
Adrian Houser, TB at SF ($8,300): Houser has allowed at least three runs in four straight, 15 in total, surrendering 32 hits across 21.2 innings, so this is a leap of faith. And the wind potential in San Francisco is going to be a recurring theme in this column. But Houser has a 47.9 percent ground ball rate, potentially negating those gusts. San Francisco has lost six straight, and scored five total runs in five before last night's six runs. Houser faced the Giants back in late June, hurling seven shutout innings in route to 47 FanDuel points. Flirting with a repeat would be a GPP winner.
Michael Lorenzen, KC vs. CWS ($7,700): I'm really not enjoying the pitching options Saturday evening, and am seemingly in favor of punting it in my potential builds. Lorenzen gets a White Sox team we know we won't target offensively, so that alone makes him a decent option. Prior to injury, he had three quality starts in six outings, highlighted by a 52 point outburst against the Diamondbacks. His pitch count isn't a worry in his first game in six weeks, and the White Sox 83 wRC+ against righties isn't either.
Top Targets
The obvious choices are again to build around Corbin Carroll ($4,700) or Ketel Marte ($4,500) in Coors Field. Both are expensive as heck, as is Shohei Ohtani ($4,800). Perhaps we can get lower roster percentages on the Dodgers' star because of the juicy matchup in Denver. San Diego's Dylan Cease has allowed four homers to current Dodgers, and Ohtani has three of them, going 9-for-25 (.360) with a 1.207 OPS.
I don't know how we can fade Junior Caminero ($3,700), who homered again Friday night, giving him seven in his last eight games. Justin Verlander has a 46.0 percent fly ball rate at home. If we get confirmation later in the day the wind is in fact gusting out, this could make for a nice game stack.
Brent Rooker ($3,700) has nine hits and five runs in his last eight, and is 5-for-14 (.357) with two homers off Tyler Anderson.
Bargain Bats
Slade Cecconi has a 4.79 home ERA (4.45 xFIP) and only fans 6.1 per nine. His .355 wOBA allowed to lefties at home is his highest split. The secret is out on Michael Harris ($3,000), who had his seventh straight multi-hit game last night, and the price is rising. He's still a fine option, but perhaps Drake Baldwin ($2,800) will be overlooked.
Chandler Simpson ($2,900) doesn't have the pop to take advantage of the wind potential, but he's got 12 hits in his last six games, adding two walks, two steals and five runs.
Stack to Consider
Angels vs. Luis Morales/bullpen (Athletics): Zach Neto ($3,400), Taylor Ward ($3,400) Mike Trout ($3,200)
Morales has only 4.2 big league innings, but his 1.93 ERA comes with a 7.52 xFIP, so regression is coming. He's also not likely going deep, and the A's bullpen has covered 11.0 innings over their last two games. We know it's a favorable ballpark for both offenses, and this is a cheap, top-of-the-order stack with big power potential. Ward has seven hits and three homers in his last six. Neto has eight hits and four homers in his last seven. Trout is in a seven-game power drought, but he's walked eight times in his last five. That gives him chances to score around these two's better form, while you have to assume a big fly is overdue.
Try our FanDuel MLB Lineup Optimizer to discover more expert recommendations, customize the player pool, set exposure percentage and mass-enter DFS lineups.
