Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners made history on Monday by being the first catcher to win the All-Star Home Run Derby at Truist Park in Atlanta. RotoWire.com, which shows you the best sportsbook sites, used Baseball-Reference.com to compare the OPS and home runs for players who won the Home Run Derby in recent seasons to see if the trend is for them to improve or decline after the All-Star Break.
Do Home Run Derby Winners Do Better After All-Star Break?
Situation | Number Of Players | Pct. |
Improved OPS | 3 of 10 | 30% |
Improved Home Runs | 3 of 10 | 30% |
Time will tell how Raleigh, a fifth-year player who has burst into even further prominence with his first-half performance, does on the heels of his historic night in the heart of Georgia. But we can look back at other recent Derby winners to pull some conclusions on how those stars have fared down the stretch.
Could a HR Derby performance change a player's fortunes for the rest of the season, and will their fantasy baseball value keep pace?
Among the datapoints are players' on-base plus slugging (or OPS) and home run totals. Seven of the past 10 Derby winners posted lower totals for each in the second half compared to the opening stretch of the season after winning the event.
Will these recent MLB betting trends continue for Raleigh?
Average OPS Before And After Derby Wins
Winner | Avg. OPS Before | Avg. OPS After |
Teoscar Hernandez (LAD) | 0.819 | 0.822 |
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.875 | 0.784 |
Juan Soto (WAS) | 0.871 | 0.878 |
Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.806 | 0.842 |
Pete Alonso (NYM) | 1.024 | 0.958 |
Bryce Harper (WAS) | 0.997 | 0.878 |
Aaron Judge (NYY) | 1.072 | 1.031 |
Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) | 0.824 | 0.824 |
Todd Frazier (CIN) | 0.932 | 0.844 |
Yoenis Cespedes (NYM) | 0.792 | 0.761 |
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From the OPS data, we can tell that three of the past four Derby champs, including Teoscar Hernandez of the Los Angeles Dodgers last year, raised their OPS in the second half of the regular season. The outfielder bumped up his OPS slightly, from .819 to .822, after capturing the 2024 Derby.
The only others to see their OPS figure climb in the latter half of the year were Juan Soto (then of the Washington Nationals) in 2022 (.878 vs. .871) and Pete Alonso of the New York Mets, who went from .806 to .842 during his second HR Derby-winning season in 2021.
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HR Per Game Before And After Derby Wins
Winner | HR/Game Before | HR/Game After |
Teoscar Hernandez (LAD) | 0.200 | 0.237 |
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.148 | 0.191 |
Juan Soto (WAS) | 0.220 | 0.113 |
Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.218 | 0.270 |
Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.337 | 0.319 |
Bryce Harper (WAS) | 0.245 | 0.169 |
Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.357 | 0.310 |
Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) | 0.263 | 0.163 |
Todd Frazier (CIN) | 0.294 | 0.139 |
Yoenis Cespedes (NYM) | 0.156 | 0.129 |
Top legal sportsbook apps have Raleigh as the No. 2 choice to win American League Most Valuable Player this season, with odds ranging from +275 to +400, behind New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge.
Like with OPS, only three of the past 10 HR Derby winners improved their home run rate after the All-Star Game. Hernandez raised his figure from 0.200 dingers per game to 0.237 and Alonso (again after his second consecutive Derby crown) improved from 0.218 to 0.270 home runs per game.
The only other MLB player to see his HR per game average go up over the past decade was Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Toronto Blue Jays, who went from 0.148 to 0.191 in 2023. The Derby champ with the greatest drop in HR per game was Todd Frazier (then with the Cincinnati Reds), who went from 0.294 to 0.139 during his 2015 campaign.
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We will see if Raleigh's MLB-leading 38 home runs in 94 games (or 0.404 per game) will be an aberration or a sign of things to come. But recent history indicated that it's unlikely the fifth-year catching superstar will live up to the lofty standards he set in the first half of the regular season.
That is part of the reason why DraftKings Sportsbook has him second on their HR leader odds board, at +105, behind Judge (-135) and ahead of Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Dodgers, who is listed at +650 as of July 15.
Home Run Derby Q&A
Q: How did Cal Raleigh's 2025 Home Run Derby win impact his expected performance?
A: Cal Raleigh, the first catcher to win the Home Run Derby, set a historic mark on Monday. RotoWire.com's analysis via Baseball-Reference.com shows only 30% of the past 10 Derby winners (2014–2024) improved their average OPS and 30% improved their home runs post-All-Star break. MLB odds have Raleigh second on the AL MVP betting board.
Q: Which Home Run Derby winners excelled after the All-Star break?
A: Teoscar Hernandez and Pete Alonso improved average OPS and home runs per game, while Juan Soto improved his average OPS but dropped in home runs per game. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. dropped his average OPS and improved his home runs per game rate after winning the Derby.
