MLB Bets Today: MLB Same-Game Parlays and Props for Tuesday, August 12
On Tuesday's slate, I'm focusing on a pair of games for which I have diametrically opposite offensive expectations that help guide my trio of betting suggestions.
2025 Betting Record: 29-29-2 (-0.88 units)
2025 Player Props Betting Record: 17-11 (+3.90 units)
Chicago Cubs at Toronto Blue Jays 
Best Bets
A pair of pitchers with disparate records but similar levels of vulnerability meet Tuesday, as Cubs RHP Ben Brown and Blue Jays RHP Jose Berrios fuel my two picks for this interleague clash.
Brown's body of work is clearly the one that looks more suspect on paper. The right-hander has a 6.04 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 1.6 HR/9, along with an 11.3 percent barrel rate allowed. Some of Brown's secondary metrics indicate he hasn't been quite as ineffective as the numbers indicate, but there's no disguising his 6.29 ERA and 1.8 HR/9 across 48.2 road innings.
Brown has also allowed .394 and .364 wOBAs with men on base and men in scoring position, respectively, and he's surrendered an .854 OPS, .363 wOBA and 2.9 HR/9 to left-handed hitters outside Wrigley Field.
On the other side, Berrios' 8-4 record and 3.89 ERA would appear to be at least a bit deceptive, considering he's also surrendering a career-high 11.0 percent barrel rate and also sports a .341 wOBA and 4.60 xERA. The right-hander has also been a bit more vulnerable at home (4.34 ERA), and he's allowed a collective .333 average and .873 OPS across 83 combined plate appearances to current Cubs bats.
Given both pitchers can be vulnerable to talented offenses and Brown's issues versus lefty bats, I'm on a same-game parlay that banks on at least four total runs being scored in the first five innings -- by two teams who are averaging a combined 5.6 runs in that split -- combined with a bet on left-handed Addison Barger, who has a .291 average, .938 OPS and .394 wOBA against righties at home, getting at least one hit.
Additionally, with Berrios sporting a .302 BAA and .367 wOBA so far in the second half of the season – and Kyle Tucker having gotten to him for a .333 average, .908 OPS and eight total bases in 17 career plate appearances – a bet on the slugger living up to his average of 1.7 total bases per game is also in play.
Cubs at Blue Jays Picks Recap
- SGP: Over 3.5 runs - F5 and Addison Barger Over 0.5 Hits (-102 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
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Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers 
Best Bets
In contrast to the first game discussed, this Paul Skenes-Freddy Peralta matchup has all the makings of a potential pitcher's duel, as the projected run total of 6.5 runs seems to confirm.
Skenes continues to sport a sub-2.00 ERA (1.94), and he has an 0.93 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 and 0.4 HR/9. The prodigious right-hander has been an even better strikeout pitcher (11.0 K/9), and he's effective at limiting the long ball (0.2 HR/9) on the road. Skenes has also authored shutouts of the Cardinals, Mariners, Tigers, Diamondbacks and Reds in five of his last seven trips to the mound.
Skenes has mustered two fairly different outcomes over his pair of outings against the Brewers this season, having held them to one run over six innings at PNC Park back on May 23, but he then yielded four runs on four hits over four innings to Milwaukee at American Family Field on June 25. Nevertheless, Skenes has held current Brewers bats to a miserly .109 average and .272 OPS across 48 career encounters.
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Peralta essentially mirrors Skenes in multiple ways, beginning with his own stellar 2025 that includes a career-high 13 wins alongside a 3.03 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. The righty has been at his best at home, where he carries a 7-1 mark, 2.13 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 0.7 HR/9. What's more, he's also had plenty of success against his opponent, having recorded 43 strikeouts across 141 career plate appearances versus current Pittsburgh hitters.
Skenes has a .175 BAA with runners in scoring position and has held opponents to .193 and .175 averages his first and second time through their order. Meanwhile, Peralta has .196 and .211 BAAs in the latter pair of categories, and a cumulative 1.83 ERA, .192 BAA, .250 wOBA and 28.6 percent strikeout rate over the first five innings when pitching at home. That puts a same-game parlay that banks on no more than four runs being scored in the first five frames and Peralta recording at least seven Ks for the 10th time this season on my radar.
Pirates at Brewers Picks Recap
- SGP: Under Alt. Total 4.5- F5 and Freddy Peralta Over 6.5 strikeouts (+103 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
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MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- SGP: Cubs-Blue Jays Over 3.5 runs - F5 and Addison Barger Over 0.5 Hits (-102 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- SGP: Pirates-Brewers Under Alt. Total 4.5- F5 and Freddy Peralta Over 6.5 strikeouts (+103 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
