This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
It's a busier Thursday than usual for MLB, especially in the evening. There are five games starting at 6:35 p.m. ET for the DFS docket. Hey, I'm sure not going to complain about that, as it gives me more options for my DFS recommendations. Good luck Thursday!
Pitching
David Peterson, NYM vs. STL ($8,500): Peterson has a 2.70 ERA through three starts this season, and he had a 2.90 ERA last year. Additionally, since 2023 he has a 3.00 ERA at home. The Cardinals have been very good offensively to start this season, but I'm not sure I'm buying it. They finished 22nd in runs scored last year and didn't have the kind of offseason that led to expectations of any improvement, much less significant improvement. Plus, Peterson is a lefty, which will potential neutralize the likes of Brendan Donovan and Alec Burleson.
Reese Olson, DET vs. KC ($7,300): Olson has had two dicey starts and one really good start, but that start was at home. Additionally, while he has a 6.00 ERA, his 3.96 FIP says he's been a bit unlucky in a limited sample size. Last year, Olson had a 3.16 FIP over 22 starts. The Royals are off to a slow start offensively, sitting in the bottom five in runs scored, so Olson may be able to put together another strong outing in Detroit.
Top Target
In each of his three prior seasons with the Rangers, Corey Seager ($4,800) has hit at least 30 home since. Since 2023 he's slugged over .600 against righties and at home as well. Jack Kochanowicz had a 4.61 FIP last season, and he has a 5.51 FIP to start 2025. His primary issue is clear. The righty has averaged a woeful 3.78 strikeouts per nine innings.
Bargain Bat
Throughout his career, Jonathan Aranda ($4,300) has excelled at making hard contact. This season that has been paying off, as he has slashed .396/.464/.729 with seven doubles and three home runs. Last year Will Warren had a 5.91 ERA at Triple-A, and given that, it isn't too surprising he has a career 8.35 ERA in the majors.
Stack to Consider
Guardians at Orioles (Tomoyuki Sugano): Jose Ramirez ($5,600), Steven Kwan ($5,100), Gabriel Arias ($3,300)
When a 35-year-old pitcher makes the move over from Japan to the United States, there's reason to question just how well he will be able to handle MLB pitching. So far, though it's only three starts, it seems Sugano may have been wise in staying in Japan for as long as he did. The righty has a 3.86 ERA, but a 5.45 FIP. Sugano has walked 3.21 batters per nine innings. That's not good, but then you have to pair it with his 3.21 K/9 rate, which means he has a 1.00 K/BB rate. Yeah, that's bad. Both lefties and righties have hit him well, so this mixed stack works perfectly well for me.
Ramirez has had four 20/20 season in a row and is coming off a 39/41 campaign. He's started this season slow by his standards but still has four homers and a .536 slugging percentage. Few hitters are as trustworthy as Ramirez. Kwan's hot start has bolstered the Guardians during this brief wait for Ramirez to hit at his usual MVP level. He's slashed .313/.370/.463 and has three homers. With double-digit steals every season of his career, he'll start doing damage with his legs as well. The second baseman Arias is off to an unexpectedly good start. He has a .288/.356/.538 slash line with four homers. Arias didn't play much last season, but in 2023 he had a .791 OPS against his fellow righties.
