Once again, we have a busy Monday for MLB. All 30 teams are in action, though "only" 12 games are included in the DFS slate. The first pitch is at 7:05 p.m. EDT. Here are my MLB DFS lineup recommendations.
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Pitching
Cristopher Sanchez, PHI at CWS ($10,900): Sanchez is absolutely on fire. For six starts in a row he's allowed a single run, and in his last outing he pitched a complete game. Now, he faces a White Sox team that is 27th in runs scored and through 106 games still hasn't reach the 400-run mark.
Matthew Boyd, CHC at MIL ($9,900): Boyd has built upon his eight-start cameo for Cleveland in 2024 when he had a 2.72 ERA. He's made 20 starts for the Cubs and has a 2.20 ERA. In fact, over his last five starts he's allowed two runs… total. The Brewers haven't struggled to score runs, but I still trust Boyd with how he is pitching. Plus, Boyd is a lefty, which helps against Milwaukee's lineup.
Mitch Keller, PIT at SFG ($8,800): Will this be a swan song for Keller as a Pirate before the trade deadline? He's having the best season of his career, posting a 3.41 FIP by lowering his walks and his homers. Teams looking to deal for him will also be encouraged by his 2.90 ERA on the road. San Francisco's ballpark tends to be good for pitchers, and San Francisco's lineup has also been good for pitchers. The Giants are in the bottom 10 in runs scored.
Top Targets
I don't necessarily think Trea Turner ($3,700) was intending to clear the fence less and do more damage elsewhere, but he has three triples after having none last year, and with 22 doubles and 25 stolen bases he seems primed to get back to 30 of each against after missing out on both marks in 2024. Oddly, all 11 of his home runs have come on the road. Davis Martin has a 5.88 HR/9 rate and righties have hit .288 against him, which plays right to Turner's strengths.
Soon enough, Randy Arozarena ($3,300) will have his fifth 20/20 season in a row. However, since he's already at 20 homers, he will also soon enough set a new personal high on that front. If things break right, he could add a couple Monday. Arozarena has slugged .552 against lefties, and he will face lefty JP Sears in the Athletics' temporary, hitter-friendly home. Sears has a 5.61 ERA in Sacramento, and he's allowed 2.7 homers per nine innings in this ballpark.
Bargain Bats
Shortstop Otto Lopez ($2,900) has double-digit homers and stolen bases, and that's in only 88 games. He has an .809 OPS against his fellow righties, and also an .802 OPS on the road. Andre Pallante has allowed at least five runs in each of his last three starts, and righties have hit .286 against him.
Well, lefty Michael Conforto ($2,600) popped a homer Sunday, so let's see if he can keep that going for another day. He's really the only Dodgers lefty you can roll the dice on from a salary perspective, at least with Max Muncy on IL and Hyeseong Kim banged up. Anything positive Conforto does will deliver value. While Chase Burns' draft status and scouting reports, along with his excellent strikeout rate, may mean a positive future, they don't mean a positive present. He walks too many batters, allows too many homers, has a 6.65 ERA through five starts, and has let lefties hit .298 against him.
Stacks to Consider
Padres vs. Mets (Frankie Montas): Manny Machado ($3,500), Jackson Merrill ($3,000), Jake Cronenworth ($3,000)
In five starts with the Mets, Montas has a 4.62 ERA and an 1.78 HR/9 rate. Sure, it's only five starts, but last year in 30 starts he had a 4.84 ERA and 1.43 HR/9 rate. A 32-year-old coming off an injury with Montas' track record doesn't inspire a ton of confidence. Since 2023, lefties have hit .276 against Montas, but righties have hit .275 this year, so I have one righty to go with two lefties.
To be fair, the righty I have is Machado, and I have him because he's on fire. He has a .947 OPS with five home runs over the last three weeks. While he's better against lefties, and on the road, he has an .832 OPS against righties and an .822 OPS at home, and both of those are good with me. Merrill is having a sophomore slump, but he has seven homers and two triples in 73 games still. Plus, he has a .752 OPS versus righties and a .751 OPS at home, and both of those are the better sides of his splits. Cronenworth has gone cold, but he has eight home runs 14 doubles, and a .346 OBP through 81 games. He has a .757 OPS at home in 2025, and since 2023 he's slugged .412 at Petco Park.
Atlanta at Kansas City (Rich Hill): Ronald Acuna ($3,900), Austin Riley ($3,000), Ozzie Albies ($2,700)
Rich Hill is 45 years old. Over the prior three seasons he had a 5.07 ERA. This year, in nine Triple-A starts, Hill posted a 5.36 ERA. He would not be in MLB right now if the Royals weren't desperately in need of rotation help. Even in his first start for them, he allowed six hits and two walks while striking out one in five innings. Five of those hits came from righties, so I have three guys who can hit right-handed against the southpaw.
Do recall that owing to injury Acuna has only played 53 games, but he still has 13 homers, nine doubles, and four stolen bases. He also has a .963 OPS over the last three weeks. Riley is just back from an injury, but this year he's hit .267 with 14 homers in 96 games. He won't get back to 30 home runs, a number he hit three seasons in a row prior to 2024, but since 2023 he's slugged .489 against lefties. Riley can hopefully handle Hill. Albies has nine home runs and nine stolen bases, so he's on the precipice of double digits on both fronts. He's a switch-hitting second baseman, but since 2023 he's hit .314 against lefties.
