A 10-game main slate awaits Tuesday at FanDuel, with first pitch at 7:05 p.m. EDT. It's incredibly top heavy from a pitching standpoint, where Jacob deGrom at $11,000 leads four arms that are priced in five figures, with two more options priced in the high $9K range.
The Rangers, Dodgers and Cubs are all at least (-225) favorites, while run lines across the slate are largely elevated. We have an absurdly low 6.5 total with Mariners-Brewers, but five games sit at 9.0 runs or higher, led unsurprisingly by Rockies-Cardinals at a massive 12.5. We'll need to monitor rain in Tampa Bay and Denver, while wind could be an assisting factor in Los Angeles.
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Pitching
Matthew Boyd, CHC vs. KC ($9,900): Per usual, all of the top priced options are expensive for a reason, and all make perfect sense. Boyd stands out to me however as someone who won't get heavy backing, and appears to have a nice combination of form and matchup. Boyd has allowed two or fewer runs in nine straight starts, failing to go more than five innings just twice. He gets a Royals team that has a weak .290 wOBA and 81 wRC+ off lefties, fanning 21.6 percent of the time. Kansas City has a 3.0 run expectancy, and the Cubs are massive favorites, clearly pointing to a quality outing from Boyd.
Drew Rasmussen, TB vs. CWS ($8,700): The risk on Rasmussen comes from a potential innings/pitch count limit, as well as rain chances limiting his workload. Assuming he is clear to work five or more frames, he gets the league's second-worst offense against righties, with the White Sox posting a .284 wOBA and 79 wRC+. Strikeouts aren't his game, nor do the White Sox swing and miss often at 22.4 percent, so his ceiling is somewhat limited. A 30-point floor seems very reasonable for a bit of a discount, however.
Frankie Montas, NYM vs. LAA ($7,700): With Montas, homers are always a concern, and the Angels have pop up and down their lineup. They strike out a lot too though, fanning 25.3 percent of the time against righties. Montas has worked at least five frames in three of his four starts, which should allow him to get to five-plus strikeouts Tuesday while being in position to earn a win. A 3x return is the goal with room for more, as the Angels have just a 3.7 run expectancy.
Top Targets
St. Louis bats are an obvious starting point, and they don't come with significant Coors Field salary inflation. Rockies starter Bradley Blalock is allowing a .595 wOBA and 1.426 OPS to lefties at home, but many Cardinal lefties aren't healthy. That seems to make Brendan Donovan ($3,600) and his four-position flexibility a lineup lock.
Seiya Suzuki ($3,700) has a .383 wOBA, 150 wRC+ and .282 ISO against lefties. He's also hitting .346 against curveballs, something he's surely to see plenty from Royals' starter Rich Hill.
The Mets offer the more traditional big names to target Tuesday with Kyle Hendricks as their opponent, as he's allowed seven runs and 10 hits across his last 9.0 innings. Pete Alonso ($3,800) has taken Hendricks deep once in seven at-bats, while Juan Soto ($3,900) is 4-for-13 (.308) against him.
Bargain Bats
You shouldn't chase the six-RBI night Drake Baldwin ($2,800) erupted for Monday, but he's hitting cleanup in an Atlanta offense that is surging, and the rookie has 10 hits across his last seven games. That makes for a nice combination of floor and ceiling.
Erick Fedde has allowed 26 hits and 20 runs across his last four starts, and now he has to tackle Coors Field? Sign me up. Mickey Moniak ($3,400) may be priced a little too high for my liking, but he has a .372 wOBA and 127 wRC+ off righties. Tyler Freeman ($3,200) sits with a .410 wOBA and 154 wRC+ if he's over an illness, while Ezequiel Tovar ($3,200) hasn't seen his salary rise yet since returning from injury.
It's a small sample, just 57 batters faced, but the Athletics' J.T. Ginn is allowing a .477 wOBA and 1.139 OPS to lefties. Corey Seager ($3,200) remains criminally underpriced, and stacking the Rangers with Evan Carter ($2,900) and Josh Smith ($2,700) offers ample potential and value.
Stacks to Consider
Giants vs. Davis Daniel (Atlanta): Rafael Devers ($3,600), Heliot Ramos ($3,200), Matt Chapman ($3,200)
It's anyone's guess how long Daniel works here, but bulk innings aren't likely and the Atlanta bullpen is trending in the wrong direction while also being overworked. We'll throw splits against righties out the window given Daniel's longevity questions, and just target the heart of a Giants lineup that's fairly priced and in decent form. Devers has five hits in his last four, Chapman has four hits and four RBI in his last two, and Ramos has hit safely in six of his last nine. Perhaps the low ceiling they've shown of late results in lower roster rates, and they're overdue for an explosive showing.
Blue Jays vs. Cam Schlittler (Yankees): George Springer ($3,500), Vladimir Guerrero ($3,300), Addison Barger ($2,900)
We don't have enough to work with to target splits from Schlittler, but he allowed three runs across 5.1 innings in his first big-league start, so we shouldn't fear him either. This game feels like it could pop off on both sides, but the Blue Jays are the more favorably priced side. Springer has a team-best .389 wOBA and 152 wRC+ off righties. Guerrero has hit safely in five of seven with a homer, and Barger has at least one knock in four of six with two homers.
