The American League features with two Game 3 Wild Card games Tuesday afternoon, with first pitch at 4:08 p.m. EDT. We need to track weather in Detroit, as rain is expected. You know they'll do everything possible to play, but it's a concern. Wind can also be an assist there, but the threat of a postponement is enough I'd likely build heavily from Yankees and Blue Jays.
Both series could wrap up tonight with Detroit and Toronto holding 2-0 series leads, though both the Mariners (-132) and the Yankees (-154) are favored. Both Games have a typically low 7.5 run expectancy given the high stakes.
Pitching
Shane Bieber, TOR at NYY ($8,700): We've only got four options, all seem fine and with the off day, workloads should be stable. With Toronto having two games in hand, they likely can give Bieber a longer hook too and save the pen if things go sideways. We can't play for safety on these small slates. Bieber has been good against the Yankees, who are just 8-for-52 (.154) with a .488 OPS and a 32.7 percent K rate, though hasn't faced them this season. He allowed more than two runs just twice in seven regular season starts.
Top Targets
Fade Vladimir Guerrero ($3,800) at your own peril. He had a .404 wOBA and 163 wRC+ off lefties in season, he's homered in both games of the series so far, and is 10-for-17 (.588) without a strikeout against Carlos Rodon.
I'm tempted to stack Mariners, especially if the winds are blowing out, but with some bargains mentioned below, we'll look at multiple layers of their lineup. Eugenio Suarez ($3,400) is ice cold, but has three homers off Jack Flaherty in 25 at bats. Randy Arozarena ($3,300) has two in eight at bats.
Bargain Bats
Keep an eye on the Mariners lineup, as Josh Naylor seems unlikely to play which will create an immediate bargain. Luke Raley ($2,500) or Ben Williamson ($2,000) would offer cheap at bats if nothing more.
There's plenty of upside in the Blue Jays lineup for a fair price. Alejandro Kirk ($2,900) has homered five times in four games dating back to the regular season. And Anthony Santander ($2,700) is always a threat for a big fly despite a dismal regular season. And while I apparently am backing Toronto's bid for a sweep, ignoring Yankee bats isn't prudent even if using Bieber. Ben Rice ($3,200) has four hits and a homer in the postseason.
Stack to Consider
Tigers vs. Logan Gilbert (Mariners): Riley Greene ($3,400), Kerry Carpenter ($3,000), Gleyber Torres ($2,900)
The Tigers land here by default, not featuring elsewhere. The rain is a concern but the wind is a plus. Their lineup has never homered off Gilbert, but are a solid 23-or-77 (.299) of him, getting him for 11 hits and five runs (three earned) in 10.1 innings during the season. We can simply take the top of the order who are all priced fairly. Greene has six hits in five postseason outings, Carpenter five and Torres four. If you want a little more power potential, Dillon Dingler ($2,800) is your man.
