MLB Points Leagues: Early-Season Strikeout Surgers

MLB Points Leagues: Early-Season Strikeout Surgers

After primarily evaluating some early performances of hitters in last week's article, we'll make a shift back to the pitching landscape. In particular, we'll focus on some pitchers that have shown an increased strikeout rate. The goal will be to identify why the increase has occurred and if it is sustainable. While a few of the pitchers mentioned have a high roster rate, the goal is to primarily identify undervalued arms that should be widely available in most points formats.

Top Pitchers with Increased Strikeout Rates in 2025

Logan Webb

We're going to focus primarily on pitchers that have availability in various league depths, but Webb is an exception. Because he isn't an option to add, we can keep this brief, but his strikeout rate has jumped from a career 22.4 percent to 32.8 percent in 2025. Put another way, he has double-digit strikeouts in two of his five starts (prior to Wednesday's outing). Entering the season, he had not accomplished that since July 9, 2023. Webb has slightly altered his pitch mix (fewer changeups, increased sinker usage, introduction of a cutter), but there's been no significant change in his velocity or pitch movement. Perhaps a different combination of pitches can bump his strikeout rate a few percentage points, but this doesn't look sustainable.

Matthew Liberatore 39% CBS

Liberatore was a top prospect several years ago but his days as a starter appeared to be over following the 2024 season. However, thanks to lack of moves this offseason by the

After primarily evaluating some early performances of hitters in last week's article, we'll make a shift back to the pitching landscape. In particular, we'll focus on some pitchers that have shown an increased strikeout rate. The goal will be to identify why the increase has occurred and if it is sustainable. While a few of the pitchers mentioned have a high roster rate, the goal is to primarily identify undervalued arms that should be widely available in most points formats.

Top Pitchers with Increased Strikeout Rates in 2025

Logan Webb

We're going to focus primarily on pitchers that have availability in various league depths, but Webb is an exception. Because he isn't an option to add, we can keep this brief, but his strikeout rate has jumped from a career 22.4 percent to 32.8 percent in 2025. Put another way, he has double-digit strikeouts in two of his five starts (prior to Wednesday's outing). Entering the season, he had not accomplished that since July 9, 2023. Webb has slightly altered his pitch mix (fewer changeups, increased sinker usage, introduction of a cutter), but there's been no significant change in his velocity or pitch movement. Perhaps a different combination of pitches can bump his strikeout rate a few percentage points, but this doesn't look sustainable.

Matthew Liberatore 39% CBS

Liberatore was a top prospect several years ago but his days as a starter appeared to be over following the 2024 season. However, thanks to lack of moves this offseason by the Cardinals, Liberatore has gotten a chance in the rotation and taken advantage. His 24.5 percent strikeout rate is three percentage points higher than in 2024, when he was primarily a reliever.

Liberatore has cut his contact-heavy sinker usage by seven percentage points relative to 2024, which offers one potential explanation for the increased strikeout rate. However, his called strikes are carrying his current inflated rate , casting doubt on that theory. Given his relative lack of track record and significant change in pitch mix, I'd be willing to speculate on Liberatore, though his ability to carry these results forward seems dubious.  

Luis L. Ortiz 14% Yahoo, 35% CBS

Fantasy managers in deeper leagues have been speculating on Ortiz ever since he delivered a promising, if minuscule, 16-inning sample to close the 2022 season, but this looked to be another case where things wouldn't come together. The change of scenery from Pittsburgh to Cleveland this offseason has led to tangible changes, as he's ditched his sinker while introducing a changeup that has been his best pitch as measured by run value on Fangraphs.

Ortiz's season-long surface numbers are ugly, and his control remains suspect. That hasn't stopped him from emerging as a viable streamer though, as he's had strong outings against the Angels, Pirates and Royals while struggling against the Yankees and Padres. Pick your spots, but Ortiz appears to be a good option against weaker foes and has SP/RP eligibility as an added tick of value on Yahoo.

Jake Irvin 19% Yahoo, 35% CBS

Irvin's strikeout rate has jumped three percentage points from his career rate, and he's averaging an impressive 15.5 fantasy points per start (per CBS scoring). That success cuts against his decreased velocity (down 1.7 mph) and swinging strike rate. Instead, he's changed his pitch mix to rely on his curveball as his lead pitch. That appears to have confused hitters, as the overall swing rate against him has fallen three percentage points as compared to 2024. Hitters are likely to adjust at some point soon, so expect Irvin to shift back to being a marginal pitcher at best for fantasy purposes.

Brady Singer 68% Yahoo, 89% CBS

Many expected Singer to fade from fantasy relevance after he was dealt from Kansas City to Cincinnati this offseason. Instead, he's looked like the 2022 version of himself. He remains heavily reliant on his sinker-slider combo, but he's further diminished the role of his four-seam fastball in favor of a cutter. Each of that trio of pitches has generated at least a 20 percent whiff rate and accounts for 87 percent of his total pitches. Singer is exceptionally unlikely to average 16.0 points per start all season, but he should be rostered in most points formats.

Hayden Wesneski 37% Yahoo, 62% CBS

Wesneski joins Liberatore in getting his first consistent chance in a big-league rotation and that's a good place to start the analysis. Likely as a result of being asked to work longer outings while facing lineups multiple times, Wesneski has both diversified and expanded his pitch mix. While pitching primarily in relief with the Cubs, he relied on his fastball and sweeper for over three-quarters of his offerings in 2024. That number his dipped to 65 percent early in 2025, and he now throws five pitches at least 10 percent of the time, including a newly introduced curveball. Wesneski is best suited to be a streamer in most formats, but the Astros have a track record of getting the most out of their pitching staff and he appears to be the latest example.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Dan Marcus
Dan started covering fantasy sports in 2015, joining Rotowire in 2018. In addition to Rotowire, Dan has written for Baseball HQ and Rotoballer.
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