This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
SEC Tournament: College Baseball Picks for Wednesday, May 21
We're underway in College Baseball Conference Tournament week. And despite being just one day in, we saw some CHAOS on Tuesday's Day 1. Tons of dogs were barking too, all started by Cal run-ruling Miami with a 6 am PST start time. I highly doubt that will be the last of the upsets, so expect a lot more from here on out.
Let's head down to Hoover, where another one may be lurking in the SEC Baseball Tournament.
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Oklahoma vs Georgia
Oklahoma Sooners (+120)
Georgia Bulldogs (-150)
Total: 10
OU got their inaugural SEC Tournament win on Tuesday by beating Kentucky in what was a legit 50/50 game. UGA is completely fresh and secured in a top-eight national seed regardless of what happens in Hoover. The stakes aren't that high for Georgia, but that doesn't mean they'll be mailing it in Wednesday. They'll rematch with the Sooners from that late April series.
That series in Athens was an interesting one. I remember it specifically because the game one had Kyson Witherspoon on the card at the Dawgs. The peculiar thing was that he was +190! That was a 2u smash and Oklahoma ended up getting the W.
Kyson Witherspoon's Impact on Oklahoma's SEC Tournament Run
Ky-bone was marvelous this season with his 2.48 ERA and 112 K/20 BB ratio in 83.1 IP. His monster junior year leap has secured him as not just a first-rounder this summer, but possibly a top 10 pick. He may follow in Cade Horton's footsteps and be the second Sooner arm to be selected in the top 10 in the last three years.
That game at Georgia was Witherspoon's best road start of the year (7 IP, 1 ER, 8 K's). What worked so well was the five-pitch mix he deploys between fastball, curve, slider, cutter, change-up. The pristine command has not just kept runners off the bases this year, but it allows him to precisely dot up hitters with perfect location. The Dylan Cease type of stuff/approach has allowed Witherspoon to keep hitters off-balance all season as they swing and miss often.
Georgia Bulldogs' Powerhouse Lineup Breakdown
The Bulldogs' lineup has been absolutely lethal this season, smashing a nation-best 132 taters with seven of their guys in double figures. There's a lot of different contributors up and down this lineup, but the biggest three have been Robbie Burnett (.318 avg/1.224 OPS/20 HR/17 SB), Ryland Zaborowski (.376 avg/1.312 OPS/16 HR), and Slate Alford (.329 avg/1.074 OPS/17 HR). These three by themselves can legit carry a lineup, so when the other dudes are rolling, it's a difficult offense to stop. As long as Witherspoon can retain that prime location, he'll have a good chance at repeating that game one outing against UGA from last time.
The Dawgs are going with reliever/hybrid JT Quinn as their opener. He's been one of their steadier arms this season with a 2.25 ERA and 37 K/14 BB in 28 IP. Quinn is good for 1-4 innings usually, but with this type of tournament weekend, the pitching plans are always on the fly. As in, if he's dominating, Quinn may go five or six. Or if he gets lit up early, he may not last two.
I wouldn't give the same type of praise to this Sooner lineup as they had in 2022 for that CWS run when it was a legit wagon. But the offense has been better than I expected. They hit for a solid average (.278) with decent pop (61 bombs), but they are ferocious on the bags (110 steals - 135 attempts). They always look to grab the extra 90 feet and press the issue by forcing the defense to make a great play. UGA's staff's biggest worry in this lineup will be Easton Carmichael (.324 avg/.990 OPS) as he's the only player with double-digit homers (14).
Georgia is definitely a better team than Oklahoma. And I'm not one to say teams don't care/mail it in if they have nothing to gain in conference tournaments. I doubt UGA won't care in this matchup, so if your handicap is predicated on effort level, you should recalibrate. What it comes down to his the pitching. Kyson is the best RHP in the country this year, and we're getting him at plus money. That's all I need to know.
Pick: Oklahoma ML +120 (DK)
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