Top MLB Betting Picks for August 19: Expert Predictions and Best Bets
Previous article 2-3 ( -1.00 units)
Season 110-118-2 (-10.75 units)
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Key MLB Betting Trends and Matchups Analysis
Before locking in your MLB bets Tuesday, be sure to check out these key betting numbers.
As teams fall out of the playoff race, we will start to see inflated moneylines and I think it is starting Tuesday.
Home Favorites - Padres -220 vs Giants
Road Favorites - Dodgers -270 at Rockies, Mets -200 at Nationals
Totals - Rockies/Dodgers 11.5 - 12.0, Tigers/Astros 6.5 - 7.0
Line Movement - Cubs -24 (game 1), Tigers -20, Brewers -23 (game 2), Dodgers -17
Bullpen Rankings as of 8.14.25 (xFIP, K/9, BB/9, HR/9 Last 30 Days)
Top 10 (Rays, Padres, Cardinals, Guardians, Mariners, Phillies, Mets, White Sox, Angels, Pirates). These are teams you can feel confident betting in full-game situations.
Bottom 10 (Rockies, Twins, Nationals, Orioles, Braves, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Astros, Royals, Red Sox). These are teams you can feel confident betting against in full-game situations. If you want to bet these teams, only focus on the F5 inning lines.
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Athletics vs Minnesota Twins Betting Insights
The value on the total is great in this game because of the perception of the A's offense and LHP Jacob Lopez. In addition, Twins All-Star RHP Joe Ryan is one of the best pitchers in the American League, and I think this total is off by at least 0.5 - 1.0 runs.
Lopez has been lights-out since being converted to a starter June 8, posting a 2.09 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 10.7 K/9, and this Twins offense is averaging about four runs per game since the trade deadline.
The A's are 10-2 in Lopez's last 12 games and the UNDER has hit in nine out of 12 as well. The Twins are 6-3 to the UNDER in Ryan's last nine starts, and 6-3 in their last nine overall.
MLB Best Bets: A's/Twins UNDER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (ESPN Bet -125)
Seattle Mariners vs Philadelphia Phillies Best Bets and Predictions
One of the biggest pitching mismatches on the slate takes place with the Phillies and Mariners Tuesday night at Citizens Bank Park. Phillies LHP Cristopher Sanchez continues to be one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball, and he is the de facto ace with RHP Zack Wheeler out. Mariners RHP Bryce Miller is coming off an elbow injury that has had him out since June 6.
The Mariners are a completely different team on the road, especially their starting pitchers (they have a full run higher ERA on the road), and this is a terrible matchup and ballpark for Miller. The Phillies are 13-7 in Sanchez's last 20 starts, with the Under hitting in 13 out of those 20 as well. The Under is 8-2 in his past 10 starts, the Phillies are also 9-1 in Sanchez's last 10 home starts with an average score of 4.8-to-2.5.
I would also look at the Phillies team total OVER as a strong play in this one.
MLB Best Bets: Phillies -1.5 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM +125); Phillies OVER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -105)
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Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Best Bets and Predictions
Red Sox RHP Walker Buehler is one of the toughest pitchers to predict in baseball, because just when it looks like he is about to be DFA'd, he will throw a gem. But, we do know he has a 19:18 K:BB rate over his last seven starts, and that will not translate into a positive result over the long term.
Orioles RHP Tomoyuki Sugano is a bad matchup against the Red Sox. Boston struggles against elite starting pitchers with high strikeout rates, but they beat up on pitchers with Sugano's profile (low strikeouts and ground balls), especially at home.
Both offenses should have plenty of baserunners Tuesday night, and that should translate into some runs early and often.
MLB Best Bets: Orioles/Red Sox OVER 9.0 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM -110)
MLB Picks Tuesday Recap
- A's/Twins UNDER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (ESPN Bet -125)
- Phillies -1.5 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM +125)
- Phillies OVER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -105)
- Orioles/Red Sox OVER 9.0 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM -110)
- BONUS PICK: Padres OVER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -115)
