This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Top MLB Betting Picks for May 11: Expert Predictions and Best Bets
Previous article 3-0 (+2.88 units)
Season 40-49-1 (-11.05 units)
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Key Trends in Today's MLB Matchups
Road Favorites - Padres -270 at Rockies, Braves -200 at Pirates, Phillies -170 at Guardians
Home Favorites (Largest) - Mariners -160 vs Blue jays, Astros -150 vs Reds
Totals - Padres/Rockies 11.0-11.5, Yankees/Athletics 9.5-10.0, Dodgers/Dbacks 9.5
Phillies/Guardians 7.5-8.0, Rangers/Tigers 7.5
Weather Conditions and Their Impact on MLB Betting Odds
Overall this is looking like a very warm day, but could be negated with high air pressure.
Marlins/White Sox, Rangers/Tigers, and Phillies/Guardians are all in the 50-60s, but with high air pressure making them pitcher friendly environments.
+++ Yankees/Athletics 19 mph winds blowing out; 77-79 degrees (total has moved significantly from 9.5 to 10.5 in most spots)
Brewers/Rays 50 percent chance of rain; 86 degrees
MLB Line Movement
Nationals -19, Giants -14, Marlins -16, Padres -112 (yes, -112 from -238 to -350), Yankees -15
Yankees/Athletics from 9.5 to 10.5
Bullpen Rankings (updated 5/11/25)
Top 5 (Mets, Padres, Yankees, Dodgers, Astros). These are teams you can feel confident betting in full-game situations.
Bottom 5 (Angels, Marlins, Dbacks, White Sox, Nationals). These are teams you can feel confident betting against in full-game situations. If you want to bet on them, focus on F5s.
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MLB Sunday Best Bets and Predictions
San Diego Padres 
at Colorado Rockies 
Picks
I am not sure how much I need to write about this game because the Rockies are a complete joke of a MLB franchise right now. The moneylines and totals are going to get out of control as this game has moved from -240 to -350.
At this point how can you back the Rockies in any situation? I will look at the same play I used on Friday night with the Padres OVER 3.5 runs F5 because that is the only wager with remote value.
Their moneyline, run line, and team totals are all juiced up and I would rather just pass.
MLB Best Bets: Padres OVER 3.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -115)
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Baltimore Orioles 
at Los Angeles Angels 
Picks
The Orioles continue to rank dead last against lefties with a wRC+ of 49. The Angels are not very good either with a bottom 5 wRC+ against righties. Tyler Anderson has pitched solid so far with a 2.68 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Zach Eflin, who has missed the last month with a lat injury is set to return today. He has made just three starts all solid but nothing spectacular.
These are two very offensively challenged teams to say the least (Orioles vs LHP) and I will not go beyond five innings due to the bullpens.
MLB Best Bet: Orioles/Angels UNDER 4.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings +110)
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Atlanta Braves 
at Pittsburgh Pirates 
Picks
I will pick on teams that can not hit lefties all day long, and the Pirates are one of them with a 65 wRC+. You can argue that pitching handedness doesn't matter when it comes to the Pirates and I wouldn't push back. The Pirates have scored 21 runs in their last 10 games (2.1 runs per game).
We get an inflated run total here at 8.5, and I think it could be to the perception of the Braves offense against Carmen Mlodzinski. But with Chris Sale on the other side against this putrid Pirates lineup that just "fired" their manager, I can see this being a 5-2 type game. Both games in this series have had a 3-2 score.
MLB Best Bet: Pirates/Braves UNDER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM -115)
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MLB Picks Recap
- Padres OVER 3.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -115)
- Orioles/Angels UNDER 4.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings +110)
- Pirates/Braves UNDER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM -115)
