We have a compact four-game main slate Saturday night, and if a few questionable tags are eventually cleared, we could be looking at a very light injury report when it comes to short-term absences. That's especially welcome on such a modestly sized ledger, and betting metrics also portend we should expect a night full of competitive and high-scoring games.
Slate Overview
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Listed spreads/totals are from FanDuel Sportsbook and current as of Friday, Jan. 23 at 12:00 a.m. EST:
Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic (-1) (O/U: 227.5)
Boston Celtics (-1) at Chicago Bulls (O/U: 230.5)
Los Angeles Lakers (-4) at Dallas Mavericks (O/U: 234.5)
Miami Heat (-7) at Utah Jazz (O/U: 246.5)
As just alluded to, we're teed up for what should be a DFS-friendly night if betting metrics are reasonably accurate. The Celtics-Bulls and Heat-Jazz clashes are prime candidates to be the game of the night when all is said and done, but with plenty of star power taking the floor, all four contests have solid upside.
Injury Situations to Monitor
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Lauri Markkanen, UTA (illness): QUESTIONABLE
If Markkanen remains sidelined, Kyle Filipowski and Taylor Hendricks could handle the majority of minutes at power forward.
Norman Powell, MIA (back): QUESTIONABLE
In Powell can't suit up, Jaime Jaquez could draw a spot start at small forward, while Andrew Wiggins and Bam Adebayo will be set for even more usage than usual.
Franz Wagner, ORL (ankle): OUT
In Wagner's absence, Tristan da Silva and Noah Penda could handle the majority of small forward minutes, while Desmond Bane and Jalen Suggs could see big usage bumps.
Other notable injuries:
Darius Garland, CLE (toe): OUT
Austin Reaves, LAL (calf): OUT
Tyler Herro, MIA (ribs): OUT
Tre Jones, CHI (hamstring): OUT
Kel'el Ware, MIA (hamstring): OUT
Jusuf Nurkic, UTA (illness): DOUBTFUL
Davion Mitchell, MIA (shoulder): QUESTIONABLE
Daniel Gafford, DAL (ankle): PROBABLE
Jalen Suggs, ORL (knee): PROBABLE
Josh Giddey, CHI (hamstring): PROBABLE
Derrick White, BOS (personal): PROBABLE
Elite Players
We have two players with five-figure salaries on Saturday's slate: Luka Doncic ($12,300) and Jaylen Brown ($10,000).
Doncic has turned it up in the last two games with tallies of 71.6 and 65.2 FD points, and he's averaging 55.8 FD points over his last 13 games overall. He's also in a good on-paper matchup against his old Mavericks squad and should also have a bit of extra incentive.
Brown delivered another stellar performance in Friday night's double-overtime win against the Nets, posting 58 FD points for his third tally north of 53 in the last four games. He draws a favorable matchup against the Bulls, although it will be his third game in four nights and he logged 45 minutes Friday night.
Expected Chalk
Other likely chalk plays include:
Donovan Mitchell, CLE ($9,600)
Mitchell compiled 53 FD points in his most recent game Friday and is averaging 45.4 FD points for the season, so he should be very popular on the small slate.
Paolo Banchero, ORL ($9,400)
Banchero has eclipsed 46 FD points in three of his last six games alone, and his safe floor and potentially high-scoring clash against the Cavaliers should make him very popular Saturday.
LeBron James, LAL ($9,000)
LeBron has scored at least 40 FD points in five of the last six games, and his name value always leads to a high roster rate on a small slate.
Keyonte George, UTA ($8,800)
George has more than 43 FD points in six of his last seven games, and his favorable matchup against the Heat should help make him one of the more popular guard plays on the slate.
Bam Adebayo, MIA ($8,300)
Adebayo has scored over 45 FD points in four of the last six games, and in addition to once again taking the floor without Tyler Herro again for Saturday's favorable matchup, the big man may also see Norman Powell fail to suit up.
Key Values
Deandre Ayton, LAL at DAL ($5,700)
Ayton's occasional dips in minutes and production arguably make him best suited for tournaments, but he's usually very capable of capitalizing on favorable matchups. He has one on his plate Saturday, as the Mavericks have struggled with interior defense, especially with Anthony Davis (hand) unavailable. Ayton averaged 31.8 FD points across the eight games prior to his most recent pair of contests, where he put up just 13.6 and 12.0 FD points while only playing 15 and 20 minutes, respectively. Ayton should have a chance to return to his usual minutes load Saturday with Daniel Gafford set to play for Dallas, and the Mavs, which allowed 36.6 FD points to Ayton in the one prior meeting with the Lakers this season, are surrendering the third-most FD points to centers in the last 15 games (58.4).
Ace Bailey, UTA vs. MIA ($5,600)
Bailey enters Saturday in the midst of an encouraging six-game starting run, one that's seen the rookie average 26.7 FD points across 31.7 minutes per contest. Bailey is shooting an encouraging 50.6 percent in the sample as well, and even if Lauri Markkanen is able to make his return Saturday, the former should remain in the starting five at small forward. Jusuf Nurkic is likely to sit out as well, and Bailey is averaging 26.3 FD points per 36 minutes with the latter off the floor. The matchup against the Heat is also a favorable one, considering Miami is averaging a career-high 107.8 possessions per road game and surrendering 50.7 percent shooting over the last three contests – including 42.0 percent from three-point range.
Noah Penda, ORL vs. CLE ($4,100)
Penda has been making his mark off the bench for the Magic recently, as the rookie second-round pick checks into Saturday averaging 24.3 FD points over his last seven games while shooting 45.5 percent from behind the arc. Penda is notably averaging 2.4 steals + blocks per contest in the sample as well, and with Franz Wagner sidelined again Saturday, the former could be set for expanded opportunity again. Penda is averaging 36.5 FD points per 36 minutes with Wagner off the floor, and he has three tallies of 30 minutes or more within that aforementioned seven-game sample. With a salary he's delivered more than a 5x return on in all but one of the nine games he's logged over 20 minutes in, Penda is firmly in play.
ALSO CONSIDER: Andrew Wiggins, MIA at UTA ($6,300); Jaylon Tyson, CLE at ORL ($6,000)
