On the eve of New Year's Eve, the Bay Area teams host a pair of conference-opening matchups. Elsewhere, we have a Mountain West clash in Colorado. Going for my fifth straight profitable day, here are my predictions for a trio of games on Tuesday evening.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Louisville 
at California 
The Cardinals have gotten red hot offensively at various points during the non-conference season, with most of their damage coming from the perimeter. Louisville has the highest three-point attempt rate in the nation, and it has made 36 percent of these attempts, so this strategy usually gets the job done; however, the results are noticeably weaker when they leave the friendly confines of the KFC Yum! Center. The Cardinals have only played in three away games so far this season, and their three worst three-point shooting performances all came in these matchups. Additionally, they have played only two true road games and lost both, making just 15-of-71 (21 percent) from three-point range.
The Golden Bears, meanwhile, have made massive strides in their third year under head coach Mark Madsen. California enters the conference season with a 12-2 record, including a win against UCLA and a narrow three-point loss at Kansas State. The Golden Bears are proving to be a competent defensive group, ranking in the top 60 nationally in adjusted efficiency, two-point field goal percentage allowed (46 percent), and three-point field goal percentage allowed (30 percent).
At the other end of the court, California is also a dangerous team from long range. The Golden Bears are knocking down 40 percent of three-point attempts, the 14th-highest mark among all D-1 teams, while also making 54 percent of shot attempts inside the arc. They also rank 62nd in offensive turnover percentage and 95th in free-throw attempt rate, giving them a well-rounded offensive attack.
Given Louisville's cross-country road trip and its shooting struggles away from home, I'm taking the points with California in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: California +8.5
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Notre Dame 
at Stanford 
The most important note for this matchup is that Notre Dame will be without Markus Burton, its best player, for "a significant amount of time," according to head coach Micah Shrewsberry. Burton was named to the Preseason First Team All-ACC Team, garnering the most votes of any player, tied with Duke forward Cameron Boozer. Burton injured his ankle against TCU on Dec. 5. Notre Dame overcame his absence in its first two games after the injury, but it then suffered a home loss to Purdue Fort Wayne on Dec. 21, an alarming outcome that underscores long-term concerns without Burton.
Even with Burton on the court, Notre Dame lost to Ohio State, Kansas, and Houston, so this team was far from perfect, even at its best. The Fighting Irish haven't been the most efficient offensive team, ranking 78th in that category, but the biggest concern entering Tuesday is their ball-handling. Notre Dame ranks 200th in offensive turnover percentage, a glaring weakness in this matchup given Stanford's tenacious defense, which ranks 27th in turnover percentage. The Cardinal is also hyperactive on the glass, ranking eighth in defensive rebounding percentage, an essential skill because the Fighting Irish are above-average at collecting offensive boards.
When playing in the other direction, Stanford doesn't have many areas of concern. The Cardinal ranks 92nd in adjusted efficiency, which could be better, and ranks in the top 120 teams in turnover percentage, offensive rebounding, and free-throw attempt rate. They are also adept at scoring from the perimeter, having made 36 percent of three-point attempts.
Considering Notre Dame's weakened state, missing its best player, and Stanford's penchant for causing turnovers, I like our odds of seeing the home team pull away on Tuesday. I'm going with the Cardinal.
College Basketball Best Bet: Stanford -5.5
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Nevada 
at Colorado State
The Rams have one of the most potent offensive attacks in the nation. Colorado State ranks 18th in adjusted efficiency and boasts the highest effective field goal percentage in the nation, having made 44 percent of three-point attempts (the highest mark in the nation) and 60 percent of two-point attempts (27th). Additionally, the Rams attempt three-pointers at the 21st-highest rate among all D-1 teams, making their top ranking in make percentage all the more impressive.
While the Rams' shooting numbers are impressive enough, they're also proficient at getting to the charity stripe, ranking 127th in free-throw attempt rate, where they've made 81 percent from the foul line, the second-highest mark in the nation. This is significant in this matchup because Nevada hasn't been strong defensively, and its primary issue has been foul trouble. The Wolfpack ranks 298th in free-throw attempt rate, so it's a good bet that the home team will once again make frequent trips to the charity stripe.
Speaking of free throws, Nevada has made a habit of feeding off them for points. The Wolfpack has scored 27 percent of its total points from the foul line, the fifth-highest mark among all D-1 teams. Coincidentally, Colorado State, which is admittedly a poor defensive team, excels at not committing fouls, ranking 52nd in free-throw attempt rate allowed. This note is important for obvious reasons, but it's also key because Nevada has otherwise struggled to put the ball through the cylinder, making just 46 percent of two-point attempts, which ranks in the bottom 15 percent nationally.
Colorado State's defense is always a liability, but in this particular matchup, the Rams appear well-equipped to outlast the Wolfpack. I'm taking the home team.
College Basketball Best Bet: Colorado State -3.5
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Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- California +8.5
- Stanford -5.5
- Colorado State -3.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
