Saturday once again brings us a full day of hoops with many options to consider. In Satruday's preview, I'm focusing my sights on a key Big Ten showdown as well as a pair of games outside of the usual power conferences. Going for my sixth straight profitable day, having won 13 of my last 15 picks, I present my selections for Saturday's slate.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Purdue 
at Iowa 
Led by superstar senior point guard Braden Smith, Purdue once again boasts one of the top offensive attacks in the nation, ranking third in adjusted efficiency. Iowa's defense has been solid throughout the year, although it has a couple of weaknesses that the Boilermakers will likely exploit.
Specifically, the Hawkeyes' defense is rather soft in the paint, allowing conference opponents to make 56 percent of two-point attempts, the third-worst in the Big Ten. Purdue, meanwhile, has made 58 percent of two-pointers against Big Ten opponents, the third-highest mark in the league. On a related note, Iowa has a severe foul problem, posting the worst free-throw attempt rate allowed during the Big Ten conference season. For what it's worth, Purdue also has an advantage on the glass, ranking eighth in the league in offensive rebounding, with Iowa's defense further down at 12th.
These trends and matchup notes played out exactly as we'd expect when these two teams first clashed in mid-January, when Purdue made 57 percent of its shots inside the arc (21-of-37) while making 19-of-22 foul shots.
When playing in the other direction, the matchup appears close to even at first glance, with Iowa's offense ranked 20th in adjusted efficiency and Purdue's defense at 24th, although a closer look reveals the edge might belong to the latter. Since the conference season started, the Boilermakers' defense ranks among the top four Big Ten teams in efficiency, turnovers, rebounding, and free-throw attempt rate allowed. In the same span, Iowa's offense ranks ninth or worse in the exact same four categories.
Perhaps the home team will find a little extra magic at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, but my money's on the better team, with specific matchup advantages, emerging victorious. I'm taking the Boilermakers.
College Basketball Best Bet: Purdue -2
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VCU 
at Richmond
The most obvious advantage in this matchup belongs to VCU's offense, which ranks 48th in adjusted efficiency. This is multiple levels above Richmond's defense, which ranks 178th.
The Spiders' defensive issues have been a bit more glaring during the Atlantic 10 conference season. They rank 10th or worse in efficiency, effective field goal percentage allowed, turnovers, and rebounding, in which they're last. At the same time, the Rams' offense ranks among the top four teams in the exact same categories, and they also lead the league in free-throw attempt rate.
We appear to have a much tighter matchup at the other end of the court, and while VCU still has a slight edge in efficiency, another factor further underscores the Rams' advantage.
Richmond's offense is above average for D-1 standards, although it's extremely reliant on scoring from the perimeter. The Spiders are making 47 percent of two-point attempts against A-10 opponents, the second-worst mark in the league. This area is unlikely to improve on Saturday, as the Rams are holding league opponents to under 52 percent, the sixth-best mark in the conference.
Richmond usually overcomes this by making 38 percent of its three-pointers, although there's a good chance that it won't have its usual number of attempts available on Saturday. This is because VCU's defense holds opponents to the 12th-lowest three-point attempt rate in the nation. This is not an accident: the last time these two teams clashed in late January, VCU held Richmond to its second-lowest three-point attempt rate of the season in a 77-69 victory.
Given VCU's advantages at both ends of the court, I'm laying the points with the Rams.
College Basketball Best Bet: VCU -7.5
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Tulsa 
at Wichita State
Tulsa has separated itself as the best offensive team in the American Conference, and it's also one of the most potent in all the land. The Golden Hurricane's offense ranks 35th in adjusted efficiency and is among the best shooting teams you'll find. Tulsa has made 55 percent of two-point attempts (64th) and 40 percent of three-point attempts (6th), yielding the 16th-best effective field goal percentage. For good measure, it's also worth noting that the Hurricane ranks in the Top 120 teams in turnover and rebounding percentages, and they rank 43rd in free-throw attempt rate while making 79 percent of foul shots. You're hard-pressed to find a weak area with this unit.
Defensively, Wichita State has played at a serviceable level, ranking 70th in adjusted efficiency, although it ranks outside the Top 125 teams in turnovers, rebounding, and free-throw attempt rate allowed.
At the other end of the court, Tulsa hasn't been quite as sharp, but it still has a couple of strengths that will help its cause on Saturday. Since the conference season started, the Golden Hurricane has the second-highest defensive rebounding percentage, a critical skill in this matchup because Wichita State leads the league in tallying offensive boards. Tulsa's defense also ranks second in the AAC in free-throw attempt rate allowed and is holding conference opponents to under 49 percent on two-point attempts, the fourth-best in the league.
Tulsa coasted to a 10-point victory the last time these two teams met up at the start of February, and this matchup leads me to believe we'll see similar results the second time around. I'm going with the Golden Hurricane in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: Tulsa +1.5
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Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Purdue -2
- VCU -7.5
- Tulsa +1.5
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