In today's college hoops preview, I'm breaking down a pair of Ivy League matchups as well as the marquee game of the night, a pivotal showdown in the Big Ten. Going for my fifth straight profitable day, having won 10 of my last 12 picks, here are my selections for Friday evening.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Cornell 
at Princeton 
Cornell is a team that is all gas and no brakes. All offense, no defense.
Its offensive firepower is impressive, ranking 47th in adjusted efficiency and making a strong case for being one of the best shooting teams in the nation. Cornell has made 39 percent of three-point attempts and hoists them at such a high frequency that the team has scored 43 percent of its total points off three-pointers, the fourth-highest mark nationally. It's important to note that the Big Red has also made 59 percent of its two-pointers (20th), yielding the seventh-highest effective field goal percentage when combined with its attempts from the perimeter.
Princeton, meanwhile, has performed at a subpar defensive level, ranking 191st in adjusted efficiency. The Tigers are allowing opponents to make 55 percent of two-point attempts (286th) and have posted the worst defensive rebounding percentage in the Ivy League during conference play, hardly the indicators of a reliable defense.
At the other end of the court, I can't sugarcoat the fact that Cornell's defense has been a disaster, but I should point out that Princeton's offense has not played particularly well, either. The Tigers' offense ranks outside the top 250 teams in adjusted efficiency, effective field goal percentage, rebounding, and two-point field goal percentage (48 percent).
There's a chance Cornell's defense gets lit up, but based on the matchup, I'm betting we'll see a final score similar to what we saw when Cornell hosted Princeton exactly two weeks ago, 87-64, when the matchup hardly seemed fair at all.
In the first game between these teams, Cornell made 24-of-27 two-point field goal attempts (not a typo). I doubt we'll see that again, but either way, I'm taking Big Red in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Cornell -2.5
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Yale 
at Dartmouth
Yale is proving to have not only the best offensive attack in the Ivy League but also one of the best nationally. The Bulldogs' offense ranks among the top 30 teams in adjusted efficiency, effective field goal percentage, turnovers, and free-throw make percentage. Their best skill of all, however, is long-distance scoring. Yale leads the nation in making almost 42 percent of three-point field goal attempts, including a league-leading 41 percent against conference opponents. It's worth noting that Yale also has the 63rd-highest offensive rebounding percentage, increasing its likelihood of scoring on extra possessions.
It's tough for any defense to get stops against an opposing offense like the Bulldogs', and Dartmouth doesn't appear to be equipped at all to do the job. The Big Green's defense ranks outside the top 230 teams in adjusted efficiency, turnovers, and two-point field goal percentage, allowing opponents to make 53 percent. It's also securing defensive boards at the D-1 average rate, so the Bulldogs will likely see their usual number of second-chance opportunities.
Impressively, Yale has also been the best defensive team in the Ivy League over the last several weeks. During the conference season, the Bulldogs' defense leads the league in efficiency and rebounding, and it ranks in the top three in effective field goal percentage allowed, turnover percentage, and free-throw attempt rate allowed. In contrast, Dartmouth's offense has the second-worst efficiency rating in the Ivy League during conference play.
Aside from how it matches up against Dartmouth, I should note that Yale is also coming off its worst three-point shooting game in over a month. The Bulldogs defeated Howard this past Monday, 87-81, despite making just 8-of-24 three-point attempts. They had made at least 40 percent in six straight games leading up to it, so I like our odds of seeing Yale get back on track with its elite shooting.
For these reasons, I'm going with the Bulldogs in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: Yale -9
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Michigan State 
at Wisconsin 
It's hard to go against Michigan State's elite defense, and yet Wisconsin has already proven that it has enough firepower to beat the best defense in the land.
The Badgers scored perhaps the most impressive victory of any team to date, winning in Ann Arbor and handing Michigan its only loss of the season, a team that also boasts the best adjusted defensive rating among all D-1 teams.
Wisconsin's offense is tough to guard because it excels in several fundamental and critical skills. The Badgers rarely give the ball away, posting the eighth-best turnover percentage. They make most of their free throws, 78 percent to be exact (14th). And they can reliably score from the perimeter, knocking down 35 percent of shots from beyond the arc while attempting them at the 14th-highest rate.
Michigan State, on the other hand, has had inconsistent offensive performances, and it's easy to see why. The Spartans hold the worst offensive turnover percentage during the Big Ten conference season, and they have also scored the third-lowest percentage of points off three-pointers. The other concern heading into Friday's matchup is that Wisconsin can neutralize its best skill. Michigan State has the fifth-highest offensive rebounding percentage nationally, but the only problem is that Wisconsin ranks 19th in defensive rebounding.
Overall, Wisconsin is the better offensive team, and its defense appears capable of limiting Michigan State's scoring. I'm taking the home team.
College Basketball Best Bet: Wisconsin +1.5
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Friday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Cornell -2.5
- Yale -9
- Wisconsin +1.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
