Tuesday nights often bring us some of the best matchups of the week, and this one is no different. We have several games with tight projected margins, featuring teams with March Madness aspirations. Coming off a 3-0 sweep with my last round of picks from Saturday, here are my predictions for a trio of games on Tuesday evening.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Vanderbilt 
at Auburn 
Vanderbilt's defense has played at a high level for most of the season, although it has one major weakness, one that Auburn is built to exploit.
Namely, the Commodores lack interior defense, which has led to severe foul troubles and high shooting percentages for their opponents. Vanderbilt's defense ranks 313th in free-throw attempt rate allowed and is allowing conference opponents to make 55 percent of shots inside the arc, the fifth-worst mark in the SEC.
The Tigers undoubtedly benefit from such a scouting report, as Auburn boasts the fourth-highest free-throw attempt rate in the nation, and it's making 56 percent of two-point attempts against SEC opponents, the fourth-highest mark in the league. Auburn's only offensive deficiency is a lack of a perimeter attack, as it's making under 33 percent of three-point attempts, although this shouldn't be as much of an issue in this matchup.
Given Auburn's significant offensive advantage, I'll take the Tigers in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Auburn -3.5
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BYU 
at Baylor
The Cougars are mired in a four-game losing streak, although it's important to note that three of the four losses came against Arizona, Kansas, and Houston. Hard to find a tougher group of conference opponents. In any event, Baylor offers the perfect opportunity to get back on track.
Defensively, Baylor doesn't consistently get stops, ranking 88th in adjusted efficiency. The Bears don't typically cause turnovers, ranking 246th in turnover percentage, but their biggest weakness is on the glass, where they rank 268th in defensive rebounding percentage. This is an ideal opponent for the Cougars to attack on Tuesday, as BYU ranks 50th in offensive rebounding percentage, an area that has improved against Big 12 competition, ranking second in the league during conference play.
At the other end of the court, Baylor has typically been more successful on offense, ranking 30th in adjusted efficiency, though this hasn't been the case in recent weeks. Since the conference season began, the Bears' offense ranks fifth-worst in efficiency and second-worst in turnover percentage, hardly the indicators of a reliable offense.
BYU's defense hasn't been elite, but it's better than most, ranking 10th among Big 12 teams during conference play. It's also worth noting that Baylor's scoring success often stems from second-chance opportunities: it recorded the fifth-highest offensive rebounding percentage during the Big 12 conference season. The only problem is that BYU's defense cancels out this strength, as it's similarly effective at guarding the glass, ranking fifth in the conference in rebounding percentage.
Perhaps Baylor will find a way to win at home, but my money's on the team with the better offense. I'm taking the Cougars.
College Basketball Best Bet: BYU -3
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Arkansas 
at LSU
Among the high-major matchups today, you're hard-pressed to find a bigger discrepancy between an offense and defense than we have in this one.
Specifically, Arkansas has established itself as one of the best offensive teams, boasting the seventh-highest adjusted efficiency rating nationally and the third-highest during the SEC conference season. Against league opponents, Arkansas leads the SEC in effective field goal percentage and two-point field goal percentage, making 59 percent.
LSU, meanwhile, has barely won two of 10 conference games, mostly due to its poor defense. The Tigers have the second-worst adjusted defensive efficiency rating among all SEC teams, and, during the conference season, they rank among the bottom five teams in the league in efficiency, effective field goal percentage allowed, defensive rebounding percentage, and free-throw attempt rate allowed.
In looking at the matchup at the other end of the court, Arkansas again enjoys a substantial edge in many categories. At first glance, LSU's offense appears solid, but it's important to note that it played one of the easiest non-conference schedules, ranked 300th in difficulty per KenPom. When looking at the Tigers' offensive data against conference opponents, the picture is nearly as grim as their defense. During the SEC conference season, LSU's offense ranks among the bottom five teams in the league in efficiency, effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage, and three-point field goal percentage, making 32 percent.
In contrast, Arkansas' defense has played at a respectable level against league competition. The Razorbacks' defense ranks among the top seven teams in the SEC in efficiency, turnover percentage, rebounding, and free-throw attempt rate allowed.
Arkansas won the first round between these teams, a four-point win, when it hosted in late January. I'm betting Arkansas will have similar success in round two. I'm rolling with the Razorbacks.
College Basketball Best Bet: Arkansas -5.5
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Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- Auburn -3.5
- BYU -3
- Arkansas -5.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
