CFB FanDuel DFS Breakdown for Week 12
Shootout Potential (games featuring high implied totals on both sides)
All unit rankings via PFF
Utah (34.0) at Baylor (26.5) - 60.5 total
Utah's defense doesn't grade out as elite in any particular area, but it does rank in the top 40 in pass rush, which leads to the potential for some sacks that would devalue the rushing potential at quarterback. The coverage unit grades out the worst at 65th overall, while the run defense is 59th, so both wideouts and running backs could be in play for Baylor.
When targeting the other side of this contest, Baylor grades out 115th nationally against the run and 122nd in pass rush while ranking 21st as a coverage unit. To me, we're targeting primarily quarterbacks and running backs as a result, though all avenues should remain in play.
Virginia (27.0) at Duke (31.5) - 58.5 total
The Cavs' coverage unit grades out 23rd overall, while its run defense is 36th, as is the team's pass rush, so there isn't a particular vulnerability to target on that front. Our schedule strength page indicates much the same, and the Virginia Front has been pretty solid the past couple of games. Running back seems like maybe the best route to pursue.
On the flip side, Duke grades out 117th as a pass coverage unit versus 55th against the run and 46th as a pass rush unit, so there isn't any particular standout group among the bunch. Quarterbacks and wide receivers have outperformed averages in the last couple of games for opposing teams, so that may be a spot to target.
Arkansas (26.0) at LSU (31.5) - 57.5 total
Arkansas grades out 65th against the run and 56th at rushing the passer but ranks just 113th as a coverage unit for the season. That said, four of the last five running back rooms have outperformed their season averages for fantasy points, as have five of the seven power-conference quarterbacks to face the Razorbacks, while wide receivers and tight ends have been a mixed bag of results. Both should be in play, though I may lean a bit toward the running backs, especially with Nussmeier banged up.
LSU's run defense ranks 71st nationally, while the defense's ability to tackle is just 99th overall, and the pass rush ranks 95th. The coverage unit ranks the best among the group, sitting 29th overall. However, only two quarterbacks all season have scored above their season average fantasy points against the defense, and just one running back room all year has gone above its average. Tight end is the lone position that has fared well, going over average in each of the last four contests.
Blowout Potential (Spreads 14.5-plus points)
NC State (20.0) at Miami (35.5)
The Wolfpack grade out 39th but just 95th in coverage and 65th in pass rush, so there should be a clear lean here toward the passing attack, especially with Fletcher out. Quarterbacks and wide receivers have outscored season averages in each of the last three games versus NC State, and the Hurricanes are talented in that area.
South Carolina (15.5) at Texas A&M (34.0)
The Gamecocks grade out 31st against the run, which largely matches up with the fact that five of the last six RB rooms have gone under average from a fantasy perspective. However, the Gamecocks struggle to generate a pass rush (70th) and in coverage (93rd). That said, the Gamecocks seemingly slow things down, as wideouts and quarterbacks alike have all scored under average against them all season, so I may have some questions about the fantasy side here. South Carolina has turned it over 13 times in just nine games, among the most in the country, so the Aggies could have shorter fields where yardage doesn't get racked up.
Bottom line: Passing attack may be the spot if you are going to attack anywhere based on grading, but past fantasy production doesn't favor any particular unit.
UCF (12.0) at Texas Tech (35.5)
UCF grades out as a top 15 coverage unit and a top 25 run defense, so there isn't an obvious flaw outside of the fact that its offense isn't great. The pass rush for the Golden Knights struggles to consistently generate pressure, but Morton isn't a quarterback who will burn you on the ground. Game scripts have allowed opposing running back rooms to beat projections in three of the last six games, so that's where I may target. On top of that, tight ends have found some success, so that may be another spot to look.
UCLA (8.0) at Ohio State (39.5)
The Bruins literally grade out as the worst (136th overall) pass rush unit in the country, while grading out 75th against the run and 76th in coverage. Sayin should have all day back there. It's worth noting that wide receiver rooms have underperformed all season against the Bruins, but each of the last two QB rooms has scored well above average.
Wisconsin (7.0) at Indiana (36.5)
Wisconsin's run defense grades out just 68th nationally, and its tackling ranks 117th nationally, so there are some concerns there. The pass rush sits 41st nationally, so that is the one area the Badgers have shown some resistance, but its coverage unit grades out 100th overall. Three of the last four QBs have performed under average (Ohio State was the exception), while all but one RB room has performed under average this year. While three of the last four wideout rooms have performed below average, there have been some big games in the past, and the passing attack may be more where I would lean.
Other Noteworthy Implied Totals
Florida (21.5) at Ole Miss (33.0)
Florida grades out among the top 40 in coverage and run defense and seventh overall in tackling, but the front really struggles to generate a pass rush to the tune of just a 104th overall grade. That said, QBs have underperformed average in every game this season, while running backs and wideouts have gone over average. I'd lean toward a healthy dose of the ground game here, as there's little to like in the wideout room. Chambliss is a dart play if you want to get funky.
Notre Dame (33.0) at Pittsburgh (20.5)
Notre Dame likes to do one thing and one thing only: pound the rock. The problem with that is Pitt grades out second in the country against the run, and all but West Virginia in Week 3 have scored significantly below average in the RB room. Will the Fighting Irish abandon the run? Nah, especially if the game script gets in their favor. The Panthers' coverage unit ranks 27th overall as well, but its pass rush ranks just 47th overall, so there could be time for Carr to hit his targets. Tight ends have outscored their average by a wide margin in all but one game this year as well, so Raridon should be in play.
College Football DFS Weather (winds 15+ MPH, precip. chance 50-plus percent and hot/cold temps noted)
Notre Dame at Pitt - Significant rain chance throughout
Michigan at Northwestern - Winds around 15 MPH
Iowa at USC - Significant rain chance throughout
UCLA at Ohio State - Significant rain chance throughout
Notable College Football Injuries/Absences for Week 12
QB
Behren Morton, Texas Tech - Probable for Saturday
Chandler Morris, Virginia - Listed as questionable but progressing in concussion protocol. Could be a game day call on his availability.
Garrett Nussmeier, LSU - Aggravated abdominal injury this week but listed as probable
Danny O'Neil, Wisconsin - Left last week with an apparent leg injury. Having watched the game, it looked like a possible Achilles. Highly doubt he plays, if at all again this year
RB
Hollywood Smothers, NC State - Officially listed as questionable but reports indicate he's seemingly on track to play, barring a setback
Mark Fletcher, Miami - Won't suit up Saturday
Justice Haynes, Michigan - Out for the foreseeable future
Myles Montgomery, UCF - Listed as questionable for Saturday's game after leaving last week
Jalen Berger, UCLA - Status unclear after missing last week.
Joseph Himon, Northwestern - Expected to return against Michigan
Braylen Russell, Arkansas - Listed as questionable for Saturday
Dashun Reeder, Northwestern - Expected back this week
Cade Yacamelli, Wisconsin - Won't play Saturday
WR
Elijah Sarratt, Indiana - Day-to-day with hamstring issue. Status for Saturday unclear
Carnell Tate, Ohio State - No reports on status this week, but it was reportedly a precautionary absence last Saturday. Worth monitoring reports Saturday morning
Mario Craver, Texas A&M - Game-time decision Saturday
Vernell Brown, Florida - Probable for Saturday's game
TE
Justin Joly, NC State - Expected back this week, though officially questionable
College Football DFS Tools
- FanDuel Lineup Optimizer
- Matchups Page (Vegas odds, opponent averages, etc.)
- Advanced Lineups Page
- Stats
- Team Trends
- Targets
- Defense vs. Position
- Team Rankings
Week 12 CFB DFS Plays on FanDuel
Quarterback
Devon Dampier, Utah ($11,800) at Baylor
Dampier has the combination of implied score and matchup that I'm looking for if I'm going to pay top dollar for a quarterback. Baylor has given up some sizeable ground efforts to opposing quarterbacks this season, including four contests with 60 or more rushing yards and at least one rushing touchdown. Dampier is fully equipped to take advantage of that flaw, amassing 520 rushing yards and five rushing scores on the year, and I think he could have a big day in store.
Julian Sayin, Ohio State ($11,000) vs. UCLA
As mentioned above, I think Sayin will have all day to throw in this one and will pick apart this Bruins defense. Sayin is neck and neck with Fernando Mendoza to claim the Heisman, so this should serve as a game for him and the Buckeyes to run up the score and pad his candidacy. Carnell Tate was unable to go last week, so it will be worth monitoring his status for the tilt, but he has Jeremiah Smith to turn to either way.
Carson Beck, Miami ($9,800) vs. NC State
I attempted this one time before, and it worked out reasonably well. I think this is the week to look in Beck's direction once again. Not only is the matchup favorable for the passing attack, but workhorse back Mark Fletcher remains out for a second straight week. On top of that, Beck gets the services of CJ Daniels back from a two-game absence due to a leg injury, and the pair had developed a rapport just before the injury. There are too many weapons in this passing attack not to put up points through the air, especially with a somewhat lackluster running back room available.
Also Consider: 
CJ Carr, Notre Dame ($10,000 at Pittsburgh
Running Back
The Top Dogs
Kewan Lacy, Ole Miss ($10,600) vs. Florida
As mentioned above, running backs have burned Florida, and that's 100 percent the case in recent weeks. Over the last four tilts, the Gators have allowed a combined 122 fantasy points (30.5 per game). Lacy is the bellcow here, without question, and a 30-point week is within reach for him, especially if the Rebels take a comfortable second-half lead. I'm not convinced the Gators have enough juice left on offense with Dallas Wilson and Eugene Wilson both out.
Jordan Marshall, Michigan ($9,500) at Northwestern
With Justice Haynes out for the foreseeable future, Marshall should run the show in the coming weeks. This game wasn't mentioned above, but Northwestern's run defense grades out 109th overall, and the Wildcats are able to keep opposing backs in check only because they limit the possessions in a game. Even if there are limited possessions Saturday, Marshall has handled 63-plus percent of the carries in the two games sans Haynes, resulting in 25 carries in each. Even if he only tallies around 20 carries Saturday, that should be enough to eclipse triple digits on the ground, with a touchdown or two mixed in.
Mid-Tier Targets
J'Koby Williams, Texas Tech ($8,600) vs. UCF
The Williams-Dickey combination in the backfield remains one of the most lethal in the country. It's been Dickey who has had the higher end of the touch counts of late, and that's reflected in Dickey's $10,000 salary this week. That $1,400 difference is what tips the scale for me in the direction of Williams, who has 34 total touches to Dickey's 46 in the same span. However, Williams is explosive and the better contributor in the passing attack. That's a read UCF has been forgiving of late, allowing a combined 13 catches for 90 yards and a touchdown over the last three games. I could see him busting loose for one in one way or another here.
Wayshawn Parker, Utah ($8,300) at Baylor
Again, as mentioned above in my Utes-Bears breakdown, Baylor really struggles against the run. In fact, opposing running back rooms have outproduced averages by 30-plus percent in each of the four games prior to last week against UCF, when the Knights fell behind by 17 at half and had to abandon the run, and the team's starting running back also left the game with an injury. Utah won't have the same issues there, and we've seen a resurgence of Parker to the head of the room recently, amassing a season-high 17 totes last week versus Cincinnati. NaQuari Rogers will still be involved, but Parker has seemingly separated himself, and I'm willing to take a look at him in lineups I don't use Dampier. I would also consider both, given the salary you can get Parker at.
Kamari Moulton, Iowa ($7,300) at USC
I almost overlooked this selection, but it's to good to pass up here. Moulton has claimed the lead role for the Haweyes, notching a 40-plus percent carry share in each of the last five games. and over 50 percent of the carries in three of those. He should see more of the same, and with slightly windy conditions, it wouldn't surprise me to see even more of Moulton, as long as the Hawkeyes keep this game close, as they are expected to. USC's run defense grades out among the worst in the country, but they've led enough of the contests to the point that the opposition was forced to abandon the run in a lot of situations. The Hawkeyes' defense is good enough to keep this one close and Moulton rumbling.
Bargain Options
Harlem Berry, LSU ($6,500) vs. Arkansas
Berry has emerged to lead the running back room here of late for the Tigers, yet he's still slightly lower on the salary scale than Caden Durham ($6,800). Running backs have torched the Razorbacks recently, with the Hogs allowing 20.7 or more fantasy points to every power conference backfield they have faced. LSU remains a favorite in this one, and with Nussmeier aggravating his abdominal issue in practice Thursday, I'd suspect a heavier dose of the ground game than usual, if the game script allows.
Girard Pringle, Miami ($6,200) vs. NC State
Pringle is a bit of a shot in the dark, but the true freshman back made a good impression last week against Syracuse on limited touches, accounting for 55 yards and a rushing score on seven carries. I'm not wholeheartedly targeting this, but perhaps the staff will decide to burn his redshirt and give him additional run Saturday with CharMar Brown and Jordan Lyle seeming rather inefficient as a group behind the injured Fletcher.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
The Top Dog
Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State ($11,500) vs. UCLA
The Bruins have a mediocre coverage unit and an FBS-worst graded pass rush, which bodes well for Smith and the receiving room to pick apart the defense. I finally recommended Tate last week over Smith, and he proceeded to miss the game due to some tightness in warmups. Well, he was supposedly held out as a precaution, but the staff hasn't offered up any update on his status since then. Even if Tate gives it a go, I'm willing to bet on Smith to have a big game here.
Cooper Barkate, Duke ($9,700) vs. Virginia
The Blue Devils are among the teams with shootout potential Saturday, and I think Barkate will need to be a big piece of the puzzle if the Blue Devils are to get there. Barkate leads the Blue Devils with a 24.4 percent target share on the year, good enough for 12th among wideouts on the slate. That number balloons to 29.4 percent over the last four weeks (three games), making him fourth among wideouts during that timeframe. Despite the healthy volume, he's still posting 10.9 yards per target in that timeframe, and he leads the team with five receiving touchdowns.
Mid-Tier Targets
CJ Daniels, Miami ($7,200) vs. NC State
As mentioned with Beck above, Daniels returns from injury this week, and his rapport with Beck was budding just before the injury, amassing 15 catches for 160 yards and three touchdowns in the three games prior to his two-game absence. He should claim a healthy target share again Saturday and is a favorite near the end zone, leading the team with six touchdown receptions.
Charlie Becker, Indiana ($6,900) vs. Wisconsin - if Elijah Sarratt sits out
The Badgers really struggle as a coverage unit, and with Elijah Sarratt's status shaky at best, I wouldn't be shocked if the start wideout is withheld again Saturday. Sarratt's absence would give Becker another turn in the starting unit, and he's coming off an impressive showing with seven grabs for 118 yards a week ago. The Hoosiers are heavy favorites here, and Wisconsin isn't proficient in any one area, but the coverage unit is its greatest weakness, and Becker could return plenty of value at this salary. Virginia has been a mixed bag against the pass this season, but the majority of decent passing teams have fared pretty well thus far.
Bargain Options
Will Pauling ($6,700) and Eli Raridon ($5,700) Notre Dame at Pittsburgh
My bargain plays are both coming from the same team and also offer a couple of cheap paring options if you decide to utilize CJ Carr at quarterback.
Pauling started the season lower on the depth chart but has worked his way into a regular role on offense here, and he's become a scoring machine of late. Before last week's blowout win over Navy broke the streak, Pauling found pay dirt in five straight contests. Since Week 5, only Jordan Faison outpaces Pauling in target share, and that number tilts even further to match the pair over the last four games. Pauling has three more scores over that span, and I'd give him a try at that price tag.
Raridon's matchup is just too favorable to bypass. He's yet to find paydirt this season, but the senior tight end does have 24 grabs for 406 yards to his name, and the schedule affords him a matchup with a Pitt defense that has routinely allowed big games to the tight end position, a slate-worst 15.3 fantasy points per game, to be exact. Eight touchdowns in eight games are included in that mix, so I'm taking my shot that he'll also find pay dirt for the first time this year en route to Notre Dame's hefty implied point total.
