College Capper: Free College Football Picks this Week
Chris' Picks
I deserve this losing record at this point. Trusting Florida State on the road (where they are again this week) was flat-out stupid. Obviously, writing this early-ish in the week, I wasn't privy to Louisville's injuries coming out of a bye, which would have rendered that a non-play, though they got whipped bad enough that Miller Moss' absence likely didn't factor. So here we are, one full week left, tons of meaningful football, and I'm a game under .500. Let's get lucky!
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Clemson (+2.5) at South Carolina
I'm genuinely curious (and too lazy to research) how many losses I have on the Tigers this season. It's a solid handful. I'm also a USC alum, so perhaps I'm willing to lose a unit to beat Dabo's bunch. LaNorris Sellers was a one-man wrecking crew at Clemson last season, running through defenders for 166 yards and two scores on 16 carries. I think Clemson's defense is out for blood as a result. And since Sellers was knocked out of the Vanderbilt game back in mid-September, he's been a very reluctant runner (his "attempts" volume is largely sacks behind a terrible line). Clemson has won eight of the last 10 in this rivalry, and hasn't lost in Columbia since 2013. Points won't come easily, so a teaser with the under and moving this towards +10 is an option.
Miami (-7) at Pittsburgh
Let's ride with my favorite team and against the alma mater in the same column. Why not? The picks can't get worse, right? I'm fully expecting a Mario Cristobal team to wet the bed and drop this one as a fan, but outside of weather concerns (cold), this should be a positive spot for Miami. Don't read headlines, the 'Canes dominated Virginia Tech last week throughout. Pitt is incredibly one-dimensional; they can't run the ball at all. I see Miami's deep and talented DL dominating and not giving up points yet again. Offensively, Carson Beck has been surgical with 70+ percent completion rates the norm. Is it dumb to back them to answer the bell after countless years where they've failed? Yes, yes it is. But it has to happen at some point, right?
Delaware (-4) vs UTEP
It'd be easy to dismiss the Blue Hens after their beatdown at Wake last week. They were previously smacked by Colorado...and responded by upsetting UConn. UTEP has beaten 2-9 Sam Houston State and UT Martin, and only two of their losses have been inside this number. It is a touch strength on strength as the Miners' pass defense isn't awful up against Delaware's prolific passing attack. And while El Paso isn't a warm city, I don't expect the Miners to care on their travel to the northeast. Delaware can get to six wins in their first season at FBS, a major motivating factor, and handle business.
Missouri (-2.5) at Arkansas
This is either the most obvious gift of a line, or the biggest trap ever, and I'm siding with a gift. Yes, Arkansas has been competitive in nearly all of its SEC games, and it should be motivated on a senior day that could prevent a winless league record. But they don't play defense, and Missouri does. Arkansas ranks 102nd against the run. It's another very clear spot for the Tigers to just hand off to Ahmad Hardy 20-30 times, let him feast, and keep Taylen Green and the Hawgs offense on the sideline.
Oklahoma (-10.5) vs LSU
This is admittedly a big number when compared to the insanely low total, but I'm biting regardless. LSU's offense is completely broken, having not topped 25 points against FBS competition all season. We'll again see Michael Van Buren under center against a defense that's allowing 14.0 ppg. It's not going to take much for the Sooners to cover, which is terrific because LSU's defense hasn't quit (yet) and Oklahoma isn't an offensive juggernaut. This likely won't be pretty, but the Sooners stretch it out.
Last week: 2-3; Season 32-33
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Greg's Picks
A bit of a rough week as I fell back onto the losing side once again, but it wasn't a disaster, just another 2-3 week. I'm still comfortably over the .500 mark for the season.
Three losses this past week, none more frustrating than Miami, which toyed around with Virginia Tech all day, only to cover the closing line, but not the one I had listed, so that's a loss for me. Loss number two was on Missouri, which didn't bring its offense. The defense did more than enough, but the Tiger offense never got going. The final loss was on Maryland, which was in the game for a long stretch, but fell apart in the second half.
The wins were sweat-free this past week. Texas was a machine on offense and did enough on defense to get an easy cover. Washington started slowly, but eventually pulled away from UCLA in the second half.
This is the final week of the regular season, so it might be the last time this season with five games. We'll see how things shape out during championship week, but sometimes there aren't enough good options to find five plays.
Over (59.5) 
Georgia at 
Georgia Tech
My first thought was to take Georgia, but I feel like there's too much piling on the Yellow Jackets and they'll likely play a lot better this week than this past week. With that said, their defense is not salvageable at this stage in the season, and Georgia will get whatever it wants on offense all day. The Yellow Jackets can still be effective on offense, however, so I'm expecting Haynes King to get back on track this week and put up some points. If you wanted to play it safe, you could take Georgia and the over and feel comfortable knowing you'll get at least one of those to hit, but I think the best play is the over.
Texas A&M (-2.5) at Texas
I'm doing the Rotowire game write-up on this one in which I'll go more in-depth, but for the sake of brevity here, I just think A&M is the better team and more equipped to win this game. Texas covered with ease this past week, thanks to the offense, but it's the defense that's now worrisome. What looked to be the strength of the team early in the season has struggled quite a bit over the past month. Texas has allowed 30+ points in each of its past four games, and that streak should continue through this week. The offense will do its best to keep them in the game, but A&M will have too much on offense in the end.
Indiana (-28.5) at Purdue
The Hoosiers have seemingly lost some focus over the past couple of weeks, failing to cover their past two games, but I think that focus returns this week as they face their rival. Purdue is the worst team in the Big Ten this season, and while they're likely to want to put up a fight this week against their rival, I'm not sure they are capable. This game really just comes down to Indiana's state of mind. If the Hoosiers show up, they cover with ease; if not, it's going to look a lot like last week against Wisconsin, a game, mind you, that they won by 24; they just failed to cover, though.
Pittsburgh (+7) vs. Miami
The discussion surrounding the CFP has devolved into a Miami vs. Notre Dame debate, and while I don't want to get into that this week, I do want to look at the possibility that Miami removes itself from consideration this week with its third loss. Miami has played one of the softest schedules in the nation, and that may come back to bite it this week. The Hurricanes have taken care of some terrible teams lately, but this is a different task altogether as they face a Pittsburgh team that gained a lot of confidence this past week with its drubbing of Georgia Tech. Throw in the cold temps, and this could be a disastrous weekend for the Hurricanes.
Michigan (+10) vs. Ohio State
I'm not a huge fan of the current Wolverine squad, but I wasn't a fan of its team this past year either and look what happened. Sometimes you just have to throw out the numbers and, quite frankly, the tape as well. Ohio State is clearly the better team, just as it was this past year, and it just doesn't matter. Michigan has OSU's number right no,w and it'll take a lot to get over that psychological edge…especially on the road. Ohio State might be the best team in the country, but this week that doesn't matter. All that matters is if Ohio State believes it can win, and while the players will say all the right things, if things go south at any point, I don't think they'll have the belief that they can win, let alone cover.
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Jeff's Picks
If you had told me a month ago that I'd spin off a 10-0 eurun near the end of the season, I'd obviously be thrilled but also skeptical. Things haven't gone according to plan on the betting end of things (although my DFS pursuits are solidly in the black). Well, lo and behold, I pulled off a 5-0 record for the second consecutive week. Virginia Tech barely covered, and Oklahoma was a nailbiter, but Pitt, Arizona State and Western Kentucky ultimately came through, inching me ever closer to .500 for the season. Can I make it 15-0 over a three-week span? We'll see.
Ole Miss -7 at Mississippi State
Despite the Lane Kiffin intangibles swirling around this game, I doubt it's going to affect the bottom line. After all, Charlie Weis Jr. is calling the offensive plays, and Pete Golding is running the defense. No changes there. Kiffin could just decide not to show up to work, and both sides of the ball would run at the same pace. Trinidad Chambliss shows no signs of slowing down, and although the Rebels have squeaked out some close wins, they'll dominate in the Egg Bowl.
Over 52.5 Texas A&M vs. 
Texas
This game should revolve around two defenses that will struggle against the opposing team, which suggests an Over. Both Marcel Reed and Arch Manning are elite quarterbacks who are surging at the right time, and both pass-throwers have fleets of offensive targets to throw to. The once-heralded Texas defense has shown some cracks, and the Aggies have quietly risen to the top of the FBS with a stout defensive front. Both teams can curb the run, so this game should come down to the QB with the best success against the pass. If I had to pick, I'd go with the Aggies, but I think the Over is a much better play.
Clemson +3 vs. South Carolina
The Gamecocks always give the Tigers problems in the yearly rivalry game, and you have to give South Carolina a bump while playing Williams-Brice Stadium. Although Clemson secured a bowl berth last week, this history-laden duel is more important to Dabo and his squad. It all depends on which version of the Gamecocks we get in the finale, but I was encouraged by Clemson's win over Florida State and the beatdown of Furman. The Clemson offense is finally humming, and they should be able to cover this number.
Miami (-7) at Pittsburgh
I think the Hurricanes have what it takes to cover this number, although I'd be wary if it went any higher. The Panthers were partly able to prevail against Georgia Tech due to a number of mistakes on their end. Although his total looked fine on paper, Mason Heintschel looked uncomfortable in the pocket and threw some errant passes that were concerning. Perhaps Heintschel's hype as the replacement was a bit premature. Either way, Miami's defense will be able to hurry Heintschel or Eli Goldstein - it doesn't matter who is under center. Both teams know exactly what they need to do to get into the playoff, and I think Miami will pound the run, get an efficient night from Carson Beck, and win comfortably.
USC 1st Half -12.5 vs. UCLA
Although USC is typically a strong third-quarter team, I'll wager on USC jumping out to a lead early and sitting their stars quickly. With that game script, I'm not as confident with the total spread, but I think they can be up by 14 at the half, even if they play conservatively.
Last Week: 5-0-0 This Season: 30-35-0
