College Football Picks: Pittsburgh vs. Georgia Tech Best Bets
The Pittsburgh Panthers head to Atlanta, GA to take on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in a battle to decide the top of the ACC. Pittsburgh enters with a 7-3 record (5-1 conference), while Georgia Tech enters with a 9-1 record (6-1 conference). It's simple for Georgia Tech: win and the Yellow Jackets are in the conference championship game. For Pittsburgh, it's a little more complicated. A win is needed this week, plus another next week, plus some outside help.
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Pittsburgh vs. Georgia Tech Betting Odds for Week 13
Spread: Georgia Tech -2.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Pittsburgh +2.5 (BetMGM)
Total: Over 61.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook), Under 61.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Money line: Georgia Tech -132 (FanDuel Sportsbook), Pittsburgh +115 (BetMGM)
This line opened at Georgia Tech -3 in most spots and has come off that magic number, down to -2.5 in a lot of spots. Though they have just one loss, the Yellow Jackets have lost some momentum in recent weeks, which is probably the reason for the line movement towards the Panthers.
Pittsburgh vs. Georgia Tech Betting Picks for Week 13
I mentioned the loss of momentum for Georgia Tech in recent weeks, and a lot of that stems from a leaky defense. Two games back, the Yellow Jackets surrendered 48 points to N.C. State and most recently, they gave up 34 points to a punchless Boston College team. If the Yellow Jackets don't shore up that defense prior to Saturday, they could be in for a long night.
The problem for Georgia Tech is that there's so much to fix on that defense. Not only are they terrible against the run (96th ypg), they're equally as bad against the pass (104th ypg). Keep in mind, these numbers have come against a very weak schedule as the Yellow Jackets have somehow avoided the top-4 teams in the ACC to this point.
The offense however, has been very good. Well Haynes King has been very good at least. The Yellow Jackets rank 10th in rush yards per game (largely due to King's running ability) and 25th in the nation in pass yards per game.
It's the passing game where Georgia Tech will look to expose the Panther defense, as Pittsburgh has been unable to stop opposing teams through the air this season. Pittsburgh ranks 92nd in passing yards allowed per game this season, while ranking 9th against the rush.
Much like their defense, the Panther offense is also terribly imbalanced. Pittsburgh ranks 111th in rush yards per game, but 13th in passing yards. Pittsburgh will also look to attack through the air in this game. QB Mason Heintschel has played well (last week notwithstanding) since taking over in early October and should find it much easier to move the ball this week vs. this past week when he faced a real defense in Notre Dame.
It's tough to pick a side in this contest because neither team can be trusted on defense. I'd lean Georgia Tech because of the home field advantage, but again, because of the defeneses in play, this game will likely come down to the last posession, which means it could go either way. With that in mind, I'm playing the over, and yes, it's a big number, but this game should look similar to the Georgia Tech - N.C. State game from a few weeks ago where there's little defense and plenty of offense. The weather looks good, so no concerns there, we'll just need the QBs to play up their ability.
Pittsburgh vs. Georgia Tech Expert Pick: Over 61.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Pittsburgh vs. Georgia Tech Predictions for Week 13
If you want a script to see how this game might play out, just check out either of these team's games against N.C. State. Both were shootouts and that's what I'm expecting here.
Both teams might try the ground game to see where they stand early on, so the points might not come right away, but once they decide to just air it out, we should see the scoreboard light up. As mentioned earlier, Georgia Tech has too many issues on defense to address in one week and while Pittsburgh is solid against the run, Georgia Tech doesn't have a classic run game, so I'm not sure even the run defense will be effective against Haynes King.
This should be a "whoever has the ball last" kind of game and in the end, I think that's Georgia Tech. The dual-threat QB tips the scale in the Yellow Jacket's favor this week.
Georgia Tech 37 - Pittsburgh 34
Pittsburgh vs. Georgia Tech Player Props for Saturday, November 22nd.
Haynes King Higher 249.5 Pass Yards (PrizePicks)
You can probably guess where I'm going with both my props this week, but King's number is in a great spot due to his running. Most weeks you can't be sure how he'll get his yards, so the pass+rush play seems to be the way to go, but this week, with Pitt's strong run defense, King will likley have to throw more. No worries about script either as no lead is safe with the Yellow Jacket defense.
Mason Heintschel Higher 278.5 Pass Yards (Underdog)
Heintschel is coming off a dud this past week, but that only helps us here as it's keeping this number in check. Pittsburgh faced a legit defense this past week, which will make things feel so much easier for Heintschel and crew this week when facing the Yellow Jacket defense. Pittsburgh will either be trailing or in a shootout all night, so script will be in Heintschel's favor.
