College Capper: Free College Football Picks this Week
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Chris' Picks
So, I got one more game right last week than I did opening week, progress, right? My colleagues here are having far better success than I am, and I'll admit my current weekend schedule doesn't allow me to watch as many games as I'd like. But I'll pick up the pace, eventually. Until then, feel free to read for entertainment, fade, and laugh at me Saturday.
New Mexico (+16.5) at UCLA (Friday)
I'm more likely to be kicking myself for backing New Mexico, but how do you trust the Bruins with more than two touchdowns? They've allowed 73 points in two games, and QB Nico Iamaleava is the team's leading rusher, averaging 6.2 yards per attempt. New Mexico lost by 17 at Michigan. Sure, that could be the Wolverines playing vanilla offense in their opener, but I also know the environment here won't be nearly as hostile as that was. This could blow up in my face, but until UCLA wins and wins handily, I assume they won't.
Auburn (-24.5) vs. South Alabama
There are so many large spreads on this slate that I almost feel compelled to take one. Auburn used some power running to beat Baylor in Week 1, but found more balance last week and appears to have both options clicking. But the bigger story is their run defense; they've allowed 1.1 ypc and 30.5 ypg. USA surprised me in competing with Tulane last week, but this is just a huge step up. And they've rushed for 190-plus in each of their first two. That isn't happening here. A late backdoor cover for the Jaguars is a concern against the Tigers' backups, but more likely, they will continue to work on offensive balance and build towards conference play, making the fourth quarter stress-free.
East Carolina (-7.5) at Coastal Carolina
The Chanticleers are trending in the wrong direction, getting blown out by 41 at middling Virginia and then putting all of 13 points on the board last week against Charleston Southern. ECU lost at North Carolina State by seven, Virginia lost by four in the same setting, so naturally, that means the Pirates are 38 points better than Coastal, right? Of course not, but the Pirates have an experienced QB in Katin Houser, and he shouldn't have issues on the road here. ECU hasn't run the ball effectively, which only gives Houser more opportunity.
Notre Dame (-6.5) vs. Texas A&M
The Irish have had a week off to lick their wounds after falling to (my) Miami Hurricanes, and have to be chomping at the bit to turn the page. I'm not a big believer in Aggie QB Marcel Reed. A&M pathetically played only three road games last year, losing two, and scoring just 27 points in those games. But the Aggies' defense is my bigger concern, allowing 46 points to UTSA and Utah State. The Irish need to feature Jeremiah Love, let their corners shut down the Aggie transfer receivers, and force Reed into a few turnovers, pulling away late.
Boston College (-12) at Stanford
There's some concern about the Eagles being travel weary, having played at Michigan State last week, and now heading all the way out west. But Stanford is just a really bad football team that I believe I'll be targeting any time the number is under two touchdowns. They've scored 23 points in two games, rank 121st in rushing and 124th in passing. There's no juice, and the Eagles have plenty in their passing game. QB Dylan Lonergan has eight touchdowns and a 75.9 percent completion percentage through two.
Last week: 2-3; season 3-7
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Greg's Picks
It's never good when one of your picks appears on Bad Beats, but that happened to me this past week. It was one loss of three for the week, which puts me back to even for the season.
The bad beat came on Kansas, which was getting 6.5 points and was up almost the entire game, only to have the wheels come off at the end of the game and lose by double-digits. The other losses were on Texas, which won easily, but never found the extra gear and Kennesaw State, which was only down 12 at the half, but like Kansas, fell apart late in the game.
The winners came with no sweat, however, so it wasn't all bad. The over in the Oregon game hit in the third quarter, and although UCLA was driving late for the tying score, UNLV was in control of that game the entire way.
New Mexico (+16.5) at UCLA
Stick with what's working? I'm a little apprehensive about fading the Bruins again, after all, they really need a convincing win this week, but things could not have started worse for this bunch. I mentioned this past week that I'm not sold on Nico Iamaleava as a top-tier QB, and the way things have started, it's going to get messy if the Bruins don't get going early in this game. The Bruins might be better off on the road right now because the home fans are about out of patience at this point. New Mexico played Michigan fairly tough in its opener, and I think they can do the same here.
Michigan (-27.5) vs. Central Michigan
Michigan had a good test this past week, but it didn't pass. Still, I have a feeling that this team is better than last year's Wolverine team. Now, with that said, the 2024 team wasn't a juggernaut, especially on offense, but I've seen enough from them this season to think they'll be able to exploit weaker opponents like CMU. Michigan failed to cover the number against New Mexico earlier this season, but I think the loss this past week will give them some added inspiration. CMU was a swinging gate on defense this past week against Pittsburgh, and I'm expecting that to carry over to this week.
Wisconsin (+21.5) at Alabama (FanDuel, ESPN Bet)
I'm not going to lie, I'm a little concerned that all the games I like so far, I seem to be on the wrong side of the line movement. Then again, it's not like it's profitable to simply play line movements, right? This line opened at -19.5 and has moved to -21.5, presumably because Alabama won 73-0 this past week. Impressive, sure, but it was Louisiana Monroe, let's not get too excited. Besides, an effort like that was entirely predictable after getting throttled by a bug underdog the week prior; the urgency probably won't be there this week as the Tide are again big favorites. As for the Badgers, this isn't the same Badger team that was an annual contender in the Big Ten; this team has flaws, but credit to them, they've handled two easy opponents to this point, and I think their defense can keep this one close enough.
Arkansas State (+21) vs. Iowa State
Yet again, I'm going against the line movement here as ISU opened at -20.5. The reasons are obvious for the movement. ISU has looked great to start the season, and Arkansas just thumped Arkansas State. Here's the problem for the Cyclones: though they are coming off a huge emotional win over in-state rival Iowa, and quite frankly, I don't think they're going to be up for this one. They've got an advantage in every aspect of this game, but I don't think they'll come ready to play. I'm not calling an upset, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a tight game in the 2nd half.
Florida (+7.5) at LSU
Okay, this line hasn't moved since it opened, so I'm good here. No movement is a little surprising considering Florida's loss this past week. Am I the only one, though, who thought everyone made a little too much of that loss? South Florida isn't a bad team; heck, the Bulls have toppled two ranked opponents already. Sure, Florida should win that game, but it's not like the program needs to fold it up after losing to USF. This game has the potential to go south quickly for the Gators, but I'm expecting a huge effort from them this week. As for LSU, well, that win at Clemson doesn't look quite as good after Clemson struggled with Troy this past week, and a 23-7 win over Louisiana Tech doesn't exactly inspire much confidence either.
Last Week: 2-3-0 This Season 5-5-0
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Jeff's Picks
What a difference a week makes! Just like that, we're back to even after a disappointing Week 1. Aside from an overestimation of Marshall, I had a perfect Week 2, with gut-check picks coming through for Oklahoma and two over plays. I've made some risky picks for Week 3 - let's hope they come through!
Alabama -20.5 @ Wisconsin (BetMGM)
I believe there's been an overreaction to Alabama's Week 1 loss to Florida State. The loss is more a testament to Florida State's vast improvement than anything else, and I don't think we should underestimate the team as a whole. One given is that you'll see an Alabama team that's supremely motivated to run the table, and one place to make a splash will be in Madison. While the Badgers eventually took care of business against Middle Tennessee State, the final result is a bit deceiving. They battled to a 14-10 lead at halftime after a messy two quarters on both sides of the ball. Even if Billy Edwards (lower body) returns, which is viewed as highly unlikely, I doubt they'll be able to move against Alabama's defense. With Ryan Williams (concussion) back, Ty Simpson will be able to build on his decent start.
Clemson -3 @ Georgia Tech
Although Haynes King will return to lead Tech in this game, let's not underestimate the Tigers, who had some troubles against Troy. Clemson's defense held down LSU for most of the game, and Cade Klubnik finally started to click in the second half against the Trojans. We also have an overarching narrative here - Georgia Tech's last win against the Tigers came in 2014, and although teams like Miami and Florida State seem ready to steal the mantle, Clemson is still the favorite to win the ACC. Even in slower seasons, Clemson's offense usually starts to cook as it breezes through inferior opponents. Clemson should be able to win this by at least a touchdown.
Arkansas +7.5 @ Ole Miss
I'm taking the underdog here. Few quarterbacks are playing better than Arkansas QB Taylen Green, who has 10 touchdowns and is completing 77 percent of his passes. He's also burning it up with his feet. Ole Miss' Austin Simmons is a quarterback in development, and he's thrown four picks. Both of his ankles were taped up last week, so it looks like he might be limited out of the pocket this week. I think the Razorbacks will capitalize on offensive mistakes and keep this one close. The Over was tempting here, but I will lay the points and take the road underdog.
Over 58.5 
USC @ 
Purdue
This is an intriguing matchup, featuring two teams that lit the field on fire against inferior opponents before meeting. Both teams are flexing considerable offensive muscle, so it will come down to which defense will be most effective. Both teams are facing their toughest test yet, so I'd expect some slow play out of the gate, but things will eventually begin to hum. I was interested in laying the points, but I need the Trojans to prove that they are equally effective against tougher opponents. I expect a high-scoring duel between Jayden Maiava and Ryan Browne, with something around a 38-28 result in favor of USC.
Georgia -3.5 @ Tennessee
Countless times, promising Tennessee squads have hit a brick wall against the Bulldogs, who have won the last eight contests convincingly. Georgia is coach Josh Heupel's bane, and I think the trend will continue in Knoxville this weekend. Some may question Georgia's offense, which has looked mediocre against inferior opponents, but I think this is a game of smoke and mirrors played by Kirby Smart. He's saving the real ammunition for conference opponents, and he's taken the luxury of two easy games to hide the rest of the playbook. On defense, make no mistake - the Bulldogs have one of the best units in the country. They're going to show Joey Aguilar confusing looks in the secondary, and the Bulldogs play simulated pressure better than any team in the country. Even if Georgia's offense betrays me, the Vols will be neutralized on offense.
Last Week: 4-1-0, Season: 5-5-0
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