NFL Picks and Predictions for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Los Angeles Rams
Its an excellent primetime showdown as a Buccaneers squad that's lost three of the last four drops in on a juggernaut Rams squad that's rattled off five consecutive victories
With Tampa Bay and Los Angeles trying to stay atop their respective divisions amidst challenges from the Panthers and Seahawks, we break down odds and best bets for this Sunday night battle.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Los Angeles Rams Betting Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
- Moneyline: Buccaneers +300 (FanDuel) / Rams -335 (BetRivers)
- Point spread: Buccaneers +7 (ESPN Bet) / Rams -7 (DraftKings)
- Totals: Over 49.5 points (FanDuel) / Under 49.5 points (DraftKings)
The Rams have become the darlings of the NFC, particularly after last week's impressive win over the Seahawks. Thus it's no surprise they've been bet up from 6-point favorites before Week 11 to up to a full touchdown going into the weekend.
Meanwhile, the total has been sat within a tight range of 48.5 and 49.5 points. The number opened at the latter and then was bet down to 48.5 before Week 11, but after Tampa Bay and Los Angeles combined for 53 points in their contests, the number inched back up to 49.5.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Los Angeles Rams Betting Picks
The Buccaneers have frequently taken on the personality of their feisty starting quarterback, Baker Mayfield, to claw their way to a 6-4 record despite prolonged absences on the part of Mike Evans (IR, concussion/collarbone), Chris Godwin (fibula), Bucky Irving (foot/shoulder) and Jalen McMillan (IR, neck).
Tampa Bay will still be without three of those players at minimum for Sunday night's clash, while Godwin is expected to make his return from a five-game absence. That will naturally help Mayfield in his attempt to keep up with Matthew Stafford and the lethally efficient Sean McVay offense he operates, but it still leaves him not quite matching up to the firepower and depth that unit boasts.
And, while Sean Tucker has provided plenty of reason for optimism with his recent play in Irving's stead, the Bucs are up against a Rams run defense that's been especially stingy at home while allowing just 93.0 rushing yards per game at 3.6 yards per carry.
On the other side, Stafford, Puka Nacua and Davante Adams face a Bucs defense that's been much more vulnerable to the pass on the road. Tampa Bay is giving up 261.8 passing yards per away contest, more than 50 yards per game more than at home. That spells trouble against an air attack that's rung up 271.8 passing yards per home contest at 11.4 yards per completion.
Kyren Williams and Blake Corum may have a tougher time than usual offering balance considering how stout the Bucs' run defense typically is, so for our main bet, we're going to cut the Rams' projected touchdown in half using the Alt. Spread feature. We'll pair that with a very reachable Stafford prop, one that he's reached in six of 10 games.
With the Bucs also likely to be trailing and almost certainly figuring they have to remain aggressive, the Over on Mayfield's yardage is in play considering the Rams are giving up 24.0 completions per home game at a 67.4% completion rate.
Buccaneers vs. Rams Best Bets:
- SGP: Rams Alt. Spread +3.5 and Matthew Stafford 225+ passing yards (+104 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Baker Mayfield Over 22.5 completions (-105 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
Buccaneers vs. Rams Prediction
Rams 28, Buccaneers 24
You can always count on Mayfield and the Bucs to put up a valiant effort regardless of who's on the field, but that doesn't always result in wins when playing against a high-caliber opponent on their home field. Unfortunately for Todd Bowles' crew, that's the scenario in front of them Sunday night, and I see Los Angeles' virtually matchup-proof offense proving to be just a tad much.
