This is our Monday Night Football DFS strategy breakdown for Week 12 as the San Francisco 49ers face the Carolina Panthers in San Francisco.
The Week 12 Monday Night Football showing between the 49ers and Panthers holds minimal playoff repercussions. The Panthers are in the midst of another rebuilding year, while the once ambitious 49ers have dealt with a completely unreasonable number of injuries in a year doomed by bad luck if nothing else. The two teams are on something of an upswing, though, with the Panthers securing the season sweep against the Falcons last week while the 49ers saw the return of starting quarterback Brock Purdy in a win over the Cardinals.
The two teams will try to maintain their momentum Monday but one likely needs to lose. The expectation is that the Panthers will be that team, as the home-team 49ers are favored by 7.5 points with the over/under at 49.5.
QUARTERBACK
Brock Purdy ($10000 DK, $12400 FD) was successful in his Week 11 return from injury, and against a tough Arizona defense. The 49ers might not want to open up Purdy to more volume than they have to – there's a chance the toe injury might bother him all year – but however much Purdy throws in this game projects to be efficient on a per-attempt basis, with the potential for multiple touchdowns even on low pass-attempt volume.
Bryce Young ($9200 DK, $11400 FD) enjoyed what was easily the best game of his NFL career against Atlanta in Week 11. It remains to be seen whether it was truly strong play on Young's part or more just the Falcons collapsing, but it's still encouraging in the meantime that this is easily the best the Panthers offense has looked under Young. The Panthers catch the 49ers defense in bad injury shape, so while Young still has a lot to prove, there's also no good excuse for failure here.
RUNNING BACK
Christian McCaffrey ($12400 DK, $13600 FD) is not an advised fade on this slate. The 49ers are at once clear favorites yet face a slight shortage of ability from scrimmage – a shortage gap bridged by McCaffrey almost always. The Panthers defense does not have an obvious way to defend itself here, and McCaffrey is likely locked into a substantial workload. Brian Robinson ($3400 DK, $5400 FD) is worth consideration as the RB2, especially if San Francisco wins big and looks to take a little burden off of McCaffrey.
Rico Dowdle ($10400 DK, $11800 FD) seems locked in as the RB1 for Carolina despite Chuba Hubbard ($4400 DK, $5800 FD) being the more expensive player with a much longer track record of production. Dowdle's numbers have predictably cooled off the last two weeks and if Hubbard shakes his calf injury there's extensive evidence he's the better player, but if Carolina is sticking with Dowdle as the workhorse then Dowdle is the pick.
WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END
Tetairoa McMillan ($9400 DK, $10600 FD) might be the most pressing question of this one-game slate, because he's at once expensive but appears risky given the inconsistent play of Bryce Young. McMillan is excellent for his own part, though, and to be fair to Young, it will absolutely work out for both players in Carolina if Young can keep playing vaguely like he did in Week 11. Meanwhile, if Carolina does not get McMillan going in this game it immediately becomes difficult to see how they make the game competitive. Xavier Legette ($6400 DK, $7400 FD) is a justifiable pick given that he has two games this year with strong fantasy finishes (Week 11 against Atlanta, Week 7 against the Jets) despite extreme low points otherwise. Legette probably isn't an NFL starter, but in this game the 49ers will almost certainly focus on stopping McMillan, to the point that they probably barely care about Legette. I like Jalen Coker ($4000 DK, $6400 FD) more than Legette in this matchup generally, and especially for the price. As the primary Carolina slot receiver Coker should see the most of slot corner Upton Stout, who is by far the weakest part of the San Francisco secondary. Jimmy Horn and especially Brycen Tremayne should see the rest of the playing time at receiver, though both are just desperate punt plays.
Ja'Tavion Sanders ($2800 DK, $5000 FD) is the most capable pass catcher among the Panthers tight ends, but Tommy Tremble ($2400 DK, $3600 FD) sees the starter-level snaps for blocking reasons. TE3 Mitchell Evans ($2000 DK, $3200 FD) is a good prospect in his own right, and when adjusting for price it's arguably Evans that makes the best punt-pick value of the trio here.
Ricky Pearsall ($7600 DK, $8200 FD) and George Kittle ($8600 DK, $9800 FD) are probably the toughest calls on this slate outside of McMillan. Each of the three is just expensive enough that it's not necessarily easy to make room for them, yet none of the three has truly assured production to offer. In Pearsall's case the ongoing concern is that, despite his standout abilities and strong play on the real field, Pearsall might be less useful in fantasy football at the moment as the only vaguely fast guy on the 49ers offense. Pearsall can get open and make plays, but in Week 11 his function was to clear space for Kittle and the slower Jauan Jennings ($7000 DK, $8800 FD). The approach worked – Kittle had two touchdowns and Jennings caught four passes for 54 yards. Kendrick Bourne ($3800 DK, $4600 FD) seemed to get benched in favor of Demarcus Robinson ($3000 DK, $4000 FD), making Robinson an interesting punt play as the likely WR3. Luke Farrell is probably the main punt play otherwise as he plays around 20 snaps per week as TE2.
KICKER
Eddy Piniero is out, leaving the 49ers with Matt Gay ($5000 DK, $6800 FD) at kicker. Gay produced some strong seasons in the past but had been horrendous for Washington in 2025 before getting cut, making just 13 of 19 field goal attempts. Opportunity might be there for Gay on Monday, but his abilities appear minimal by now.
Ryan Fitzgerald ($4800 DK, $6600 FD) has shown a little something in 2025 by making 17 of 20 field goal attempts, but he notably lacks range (two of three from beyond 50) and his three missed PATs on 19 attempts is definitely a red flag. Gay and Fitzgerald are both justifiable picks, just ones who might need the circumstances to lift them somewhat.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
The 49ers ($4600 DK, $7000 FD) might prove a cashing-viable play on this slate, but if so it would likely be more attributable to failure on the part of Bryce Young than truly dominant play from the 49ers. With the outrageous number of serious injuries suffered by the 49ers defense there simply isn't that much talent left. The 49ers defense is well coached, however, and Young still has a great deal to prove even after last week's win over Atlanta.
The Panthers ($3600 DK, $6200 FD) are probably not an advisable play here. Carolina's defense is actually well coached and has a few good players, but only a few. The secondary in particular remains a major weakness for Carolina, and with below average pass-rushing personnel otherwise it's not obvious how they'll get the better of Shanahan and Purdy.
