The Games
| Over/Under | Road Team | Road Implied Total | Home Team | Home Implied Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41.5 | Houston Texans | 19.25 | New England Patriots | 22.25 |
| 48.5 | Los Angeles Rams | 26 | Chicago Bears | 22.5 |
Quarterback
- Matthew Stafford
at CHI ($6,600)
Looking at projections, none of the four QBs standout when it comes to point-per-dollar value. Stafford and Caleb Williams ($6,100) are separated by less than two points, with Drake Maye ($6,300) slightly below Stafford. The three of the them will garner similar ownership as well. I highlighted Stafford because I think he'll be the most popular and the Rams have the highest total. I'd understand if some prefer Maye for his added rushing upside but the matchup against Houston is off-putting as the Texans defense is arguably the best unit in the NFL. Williams made some incredible plays in last week's stunning come from behind win over the Packers and the $500 savings might come in handy. It's worth mentioning C.J. Stroud ($5,200) because he's much cheaper and will be the least popular but he doesn't project well against a tough defense, without his top weapon in Nico Collins. Still, he's worthy of consideration in the largest-field GPPs because he allows for a different lineup construction as long as you use the extra salary.
Running Back
- Kyren Williams at CHI ($6,600)
Similar to the QB position, none of the RBs project well from a value standpoint. Williams feels safest because the Rams have the highest total but he's seen his workload cut into by Blake Corum ($5,100), who took 13 touches for 58 yards last week in Carolina. Williams had 15 touches for 75 yards, including a late touchdown catch to seal the win. He's one of four running backs who will carry similar ownership and I'd expect the difference in popularity between him, Swift, Marks and Stevenson to be insignificant. Pick your favorites.
- Rhamondre Stevenson
vs. HOU ($5,800)
The Patriots and Bears feature two RBs each, which is why none of them project great. I highlighted Stevenson because he's cheapest and has the most pass-catching upside of the bunch. He projects as slightly better value than the rest. He's also topped 15 DraftKings points in four consecutive games and out-touched TreVeyon Henderson ($5,700) 13 to 10 last week. Henderson can still be rostered for leverage in GPPs.
D'Andre Swift ($6,000) had 15 touches for 92 yards and a touchdown against the Packers while Kyle Monangai ($5,000) took nine touches for 49 yards. I wouldn't fault anyone for preferring Swift or even Woody Marks ($5,900) ahead of Stevenson. Marks was impressive against the Steelers, taking 19 carries for 112 yards and a touchdown but offers next to nothing in the passing-game. Both Houston and Chicago have tough matchups as underdogs against solid run defenses.
Wide Receiver
- Puka Nacua at CHI ($9,000)
Unlike the QB and RB positions, WR is relatively straightforward. For my money, Nacua is a lock in all formats considering how good he's been and the fact that there's no one else expensive to spend for. Nacua has been incredible, with back-to-back 10-catch games a touchdown in four straight. He has four 100-yard games in his last six, with seven TDs in that span. The only reason you'd consider fading is for extreme leverage as he'll be by far the most popular player on the slate. Davante Adams ($6,500) returned from a three-game absence to catch five of 13 targets for 72 yards. The connection between him and Stafford was a bit off but the volume is encouraging. He's clearly the second-best option behind Nacua and easy enough to afford that I'd prioritize him in cash-games.
Stefon Diggs ($5,800) will likely come in as the third-most popular WR behind the two Rams but he has a difficult matchup against one the league's best secondaries and his recent target share is concerning. He's drawn more than six just once in his last seven and fewer than five in four of those as Drake Maye has been spreading the ball around. Still, he's the most likely of the Patriots WR's to have a big game. Kayshon Boutte ($4,300) makes sense for leverage after catching four passes for 66 yards last week. He's also their top deep threat and most likely to get behind the defense for a long TD.
- Christian Kirk
at NE ($4,100)
Kirk stepped up big last week after Nico Collins went out with a concussion, catching eight of nine targets for 144 yards and a touchdown. With Collins expected out Sunday, Kirk should again see the requisite volume to pay off his salary and he proved last week that he still has considerable upside. Jayden Higgins ($4,600) and Xavier Hutchinson ($3,400) should be considered for GPPs as they'll be less popular than Kirk and it wouldn't be surprising to see either outscore him. That's especially true about Higgins, a promising rookie who's already showed signs of a big future with six touchdowns, including two in the last three games.
If I'm rostering a Bears WR, it's Luther Burden ($4,700). He's cheaper and healthier than Rome Odunze ($5,300) and DJ Moore ($5,200). He's also been drawing more targets and has the speed to bust a long touchdown.
Tight End
- Colston Loveland
vs. LAR ($5,500)
Loveland is on fire, with three consecutive games of 21+ DraftKings points. He's drawn a whopping 38 targets in that span, securing 24 of them. He projects better than the WRs and RBs priced around him as well, which means double tight end constructions are more than viable. Dalton Schultz ($4,200) becomes more appealing in the absence of Nico Collins. Hunter Henry ($4,500) can be rostered for leverage, especially when paired with Maye. Both of the Rams are solid options too. Colby Parkinson ($3,700) caught another touchdown last week, his ninth in the last 10 games. Tyler Higbee ($3,200) has seven catches on nine targets over two games since being activated from IR.
Defense/Special Teams
- Houston Texans at NE ($3,400)
All of the DSTs are in play for different reasons, especially as the position is so variable. Houston has an elite defense and Maye takes a lot of sacks. The Rams ($3,000) and Bears ($2,400) will be playing in frigid/windy conditions and offer salary relief. The Patriots ($3,600) face a banged up Texans offense that struggled and turned the ball over against the Chargers last week.
