DraftKings NFL: Thanksgiving DFS Breakdown

The Games

Quarterback

• Patrick Mahomes at DAL ($6,500)

This is the best group of Thanksgiving games we've ever had, featuring six high-scoring offenses and six of the better quarterbacks in the league. From a DFS perspective, it's harder to break down because there are strong options at every price range and not much to separate them from a projection standpoint. On the other hand, it's easier to make good lineups because it's more difficult to make mistakes. 

Normally I'd be highlighting Lamar Jackson ($6,800) here, considering Baltimore has the highest implied point total and a matchup against the worst of the six defenses. However, since returning from injury, Jackson's numbers are noticeably down. He hasn't been running as much, and that's a big part of his value. I'm not saying he's a bad option, just that I feel safer with Mahomes. The Cowboys defense has improved, especially against the run with the addition of Quinnen Williams. The Chiefs also have a top run defense, so we should be in for a competitive game with lots of passing. Mahomes has been great this season, with at least 21 DraftKings points in eight of 11 games. Most of those he was without his full compliment of weapons, who are all now available. Dak Prescott ($6,300) has also been great; he'll be less popular and makes for good leverage in GPPs. 

Joe Burrow ($6,000) has been out since injuring his toe in Week 2, but he's apparently healthy and ready to return Thursday in Baltimore. There's obvious risk, but I can always back him. Jared Goff ($5,800) and Jordan Love ($5,500) make sense because they're cheap and pricing is tight. Games have a tendency to get crazy inside the dome at Ford Field, which we just saw last week with Jameis Winston and the Giants. 

Running Back

• Jahmyr Gibbs vs. GB ($8,800)

I don't know what else there is to say about Gibbs after he exploded for a whopping 58.4 DraftKings points last week. He had 219 yards on the ground and added 11 catches while scoring three times; wild stuff. It was the third time in his last six games he's scored at least 39 points. He had 10 catches when Detroit faced Green Bay in Week 1. He stands alone at the position. 

• Derrick Henry vs. CIN ($7,300)

Henry is coming off back-to-back games of 20+ fantasy points, and he has 20+ touches in six straight. It's a prime spot against Cincinnati as their defense is weakest against the run. He's clearly the second-best option at running back. 

Josh Jacobs ($6,800) is expected to play after sitting out last week's win over the Vikings. Emanuel Wilson ($5,900) filled in admirably, taking 28 carries for 102 yards and two TD. He's looked decent all season and it wouldn't surprise me to see him eat into some of Jacobs' workload down the stretch to preserve his health. Nonetheless, Jacobs still has the potential to see 20+ touches, and his salary is considerably lower than usual, making him well worth the risk in tournaments.

The same goes for Chase Brown ($6,500), who was chalk on the last two Sunday slates and responded with 18 DraftKings points each time. The reason he doesn't project quite as well this time around is the expected return of Samaje Perine, who'd been playing about a third of the snaps and most third downs prior to getting injured in Week 9. Still, Brown rushed for 109 yards against a good Patriots defense last week and 99 the week before against the Steelers. He also gets a bump with Joe Burrow back under center. 

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Kareem Hunt ($5,300) is coming off his best game of the season with 130 scrimmage yards on 33 touches against the Colts. Still viable, he doesn't project for quite as much usage this week with Isiah Pacheco ($5,000) back healthy. Also, Dallas has seriously strengthened their run defense with the addition of Williams, shutting down Saquon Barkley and Ashton Jeanty the last two weeks. David Montgomery ($4,800) burned me last week and keeps losing touches to Gibbs, but he's bound to fall into the end zone sooner or later. The main reason to consider one of these cheaper backs in because it allows for a different type of lineup construction.    

Wide Receiver

• Ja'Marr Chase at BAL ($8,000)

Chase is the top projected WR in terms of value and ceiling potential, partly because Joe Burrow is back and Tee Higgins is out and partly because he's Ja'Marr Chase, the all-world target monster who projects best most weeks. You could argue there are five elite WRs on this slate, and it wouldn't be surprising to see any of them end up the day's highest scorer. I'll be rostering Chase in cash-games but anything goes in GPPs. 

There isn't much to separate Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800) and Rashee Rice ($7,500). St. Brown's receiving yardage prop is set at 76.5 while Rice's is 75.5. I slightly prefer the matchup for Rice, as I don't expect the Chiefs to have much success on the ground, so give me the $300 savings if forced to choose. 

 George Pickens ($7,000) has looked like the No. 1 WR in Dallas recently after back-to-back nine-catch, 140+ yard games. It's the first time he's been priced above CeeDee Lamb ($6,900), who's struggled and shown frustration. I wish I could tell you which one to roster, but I have no idea and they'll garner similar ownership. 

Zay Flowers ($6,100) will be overlooked and makes sense as a leverage option when paired with Jackson and/or Bengals. 

• Jameson Williams vs. GB ($4,800)

It's a toss up between Williams and Christian Watson ($4,700) for the best of the cheaper value. Williams is coming off a donut, but he'd been on fire before that, with 66+ yards and a TD in three consecutive games. Meanwhile, Watson is playing 75 percent of snaps and might be emerging as Love's de-facto No. 1 option. He has at least 45 receiving yards in all five games since being activated in Week 8. 

Xavier Worthy ($4,500) and Andrei Iosivas ($4,300) are decent options for GPPs. Worthy always has upside given how explosive he is, and Iosivas could benefit from a bump in target share in the absence of Higgins. He caught four of seven targets last week when Chase was suspended. 

Tight End

• Travis Kelce at DAL ($5,000)

Kelce has at least four catches in all but one game this season, and he's topped 20 DraftKings points in two of his last four. He's the top projected TE on the slate but hard to afford if spending up for two RBs and two WRs. Jake Ferguson ($5,100) goes overlooked whenever Lamb and Pickens are both healthy. 

• Mark Andrews vs. CIN ($3,600) and Mike Gesicki at BAL ($3,000)

Rostering two TEs looks viable, if not optimal, considering the cheaper value options. Mike Gesicki ($3,000) played 93 percent of his snaps either out wide or in the slot last week, and he's been a favorite target of Burrow's when Higgins has been out. Noah Fant ($3,000) can be considered for leverage in tournaments. On the Ravens side, Mark Andrews ($3,600) and Isaiah Likely ($2,600) are in good spots too, as the Bengals defense ranks dead last in yards and touchdowns allowed to TEs. Rostering one in flex to save salary makes a lot of sense. 

Defense/Special Teams

None of the defenses stand out, and salary is at a premium, so I'll be spending down. Micah Parsons and the Packers ($2,600) are one of the best units in the league and Jared Goff has looked shaky and mistake-prone in recent weeks. The Cowboys ($2,400) are significantly improved and playing their best football of the season, fresh off an upset over the reigning champs. Even the Bengals ($2,200) are viable because they're the cheapest and Lamar Jackson has been taking more sacks than usual since his injury.