We have four teams on a bye during Week 12. Among the exciting matchups on the docket are the Chiefs hosting the Colts and the Cowboys taking on the Eagles. Let's dig into the Sunday FanDuel NFL DFS slate and highlight some of the top players to consider.
The Games
A lot of the focus of NFL DFS picks is on individual players. Skills certainly matter, but finding game environments that are likely to promote a lot of points scored is a way to narrow the focus of our player pool.
| Over-Under | Road Team | Road Team Total | Home Team | Home Team Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44.5 | Jets | 15.5 | Ravens | 28.5 |
| 44.5 | Steelers | 21.5 | Bears | 23.5 |
| 51 | Patriots | 28.5 | Bengals | 22.5 |
| 49.5 | Giants | 19.5 | Lions | 30.5 |
| 41 | Vikings | 16.5 | Packers | 23.5 |
| 49.5 | Colts | 23.5 | Chiefs | 26.5 |
| 39.5 | Seahawks | 26.5 | Titans | 13.5 |
| 47 | Jaguars | 24.5 | Cardinals | 22.5 |
| 36 | Browns | 16.5 | Raiders | 19.5 |
| 47.5 | Eagles | 24.5 | Cowboys | 22.5 |
| 39.5 | Falcons | 19.5 | Saints | 20.5 |
There are three games with a total below 40 points and three with least 49; the favorites with the highest totals include the Lions, Ravens and Patriots.
Value Options
Michael Wilson, ARI vs. JAC ($6,300): Wilson was one of the best value options on the slate last week, catching 15 of 18 targets for 185 yards. The Cardinals were without Marvin Harrison Jr. (appendix), who will be out again for Week 12. Meanwhile, Jacksonville has given up the seventh-most passing yards per game in the league, so even though Wilson's salary has increased, he could still provide significant value.
Zach Charbonnet, SEA at TEN ($6,200): The Titans have given up 15 rushing touchdowns, which is tied for the second-most in the league. As good as Kenneth Walker III has been for the Seahawks, he only has four rushing touchdowns. Charbonnet has six rushing touchdowns, thanks to his 28 carries inside the red zone. This is not a new trend for Charbonnet, given that he had eight rushing touchdowns last season.
Other Value Options
QB Jacoby Brissett, ARI vs. JAC ($7,300)
QB Tyrod Taylor, NYJ at BAL ($6,900)
RB Kareem Hunt, KC vs. IND ($6,400)
RB Tyrone Tracy Jr., NYG at DET ($6,000)
RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL at NO ($5,700)
WR Rome Odunze, CHI vs. PIT ($6,900)
WR Jakobi Meyers, JAC at ARI ($6,000)
WR Adonai Mitchell, NYJ at BAL ($5,300)
TE Hunter Henry, NE at CIN ($5,300)
TE Noah Fant, CIN vs. NE ($5,200)
Stacks to Consider
New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals have given up the second-most FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks on their way to allowing 33.4 points per game. Their 7.91 yards per pass attempt is also the second-highest in the league. That makes Drake Maye ($8,400), who has eight multi-touchdown games this season, one of the top quarterbacks for the slate.
The question is, who is the best stacking option to pair with Maye? The biggest name is Stefon Diggs ($6,700), who is coming off catching nine passes for 105 yards against the Jets in Week 11. As good as he can be, Kayshon Boutte ($5,800) might be a better option given his cheaper salary. Boutte has an average depth of target of 16.7 yards, so he could gash a Bengals team that has given up 37 receptions of at least 20 yards.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Indianapolis Colts
In what was a difficult matchup against the Broncos last week, Patrick Mahomes ($8,100), threw for 276 yards, one touchdown and one interception. After three straight games with at least three touchdown passes, Mahomes has one score over his last two games. He hasn't been as accurate this season, seeing his completion rate drop to 64.5 percent compared to 67.5 percent last year. As disappointing as he has been, the Chiefs might need him to throw a lot against the Colts, who lead the NFL with 32.1 points per game. With teams needing to throw a lot to try and keep pace, the Colts have had the fourth-most passes attempted against them.
Travis Kelce ($6,000) is coming off a stellar performance against the Broncos in which he caught nine of 13 targets for 91 yards and one touchdown. While he hasn't been as productive as we've become accustomed to, he has at least five receptions in five of his last seven games. He could exploit this matchup considering the Colts have allowed the sixth-most yards per target to tight ends in the league.
Other Stacks to Consider
Eagles – Jalen Hurts ($9,000) + DeVonta Smith ($7,200)
Lions – Jared Goff ($8,000) + Amon-Ra St. Brown ($9,200)
Seahawks – Sam Darnold ($7,400) + Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($9,800)
High-Price Heroes
Derrick Henry, BAL vs. NYJ ($8,400): Henry started to turn his season around in Week 6 when he ran for 122 yards against the Rams. Including that performance, he has rushed for 490 yards and three touchdowns over his last five games. Helping his cause was that he received at least 18 carries in each game, including three times with at least 20.
The Ravens are heavy favorites against the Jets, who dealt away two of their best defensive players at the trade deadline. One of them was Quinnen Williams, who was key to stopping the run. Last week, Patriots running back TreVeyon Henderson recorded two rushing touchdowns against them. With the potential for Henry to at least approach 18 carries again, he comes with significant upside.
Trey McBride, ARI vs. JAC ($8,500): Wilson isn't the only pass-catcher on the Cardinals who stepped up with Harrison out last week, as McBride turned his 11 targets into 10 receptions, 115 yards and one touchdown. That marked the fifth time over the last seven games he has been targeted at least 11 times.
Since Brissett took over at quarterback, McBride has taken his production to another level. Over five games with his new quarterback, he has 42 receptions for 443 yards and six touchdowns on 57 targets. Meanwhile, Jaguars have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to tight ends, so McBride comes into this matchup with a high floor.
The Smash Spot
Jahmyr Gibbs, DET vs. NYG ($9,100): Josh Jacobs racked up 40 rushing yards on just seven carries before injuring his knee last week against the Giants. Emanuel Wilson came on in relief, rushing for 40 yards and one touchdown on 11 carries. The Giants have allowed the third-most FanDuel points per game to running backs, a lot of which can be attributed to allowing 5.74 yards per carry to the position.
Gibbs is averaging 5.2 yards per carry this season, putting him on pace to average at least that many yards per carry for the third straight season. He also has 10 total touchdowns, including five in his last four games. This is a mismatch of epic proportions.
