The pot-odds strategy came through last week, as the Buccaneers, the overwhelming Survivor choice, went down to the Saints (at home, no less). The second-most popular team, the Browns, also lost, though, which is particularly frustrating if you rightly faded the Bucs. (Two big Tony Pollard TD runs were the difference, as fluky as those were.)
Survivors greatly increased their chances of winning their pool with Tampa Bay losing.
In my pool, 25 were eliminated (19 on the Bucs). Of the original 451 entrants, nine remain (2.0 percent).
On to Week 15.
Before picking a Survivor team each week, be sure to consult our NFL injury report and the latest fantasy football news. Also check out the weekly projections to see how this week's matchups shape up.
Ownership percentages below come from Yahoo. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
Odds from BetMGM. The BetMGM bonus code gets new players up to $1,500 in bonus bets.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ERS | Titans | 36.1% | 825 | 89.2% | 3.90 |
| EAGLES | Raiders | 29.4% | 600 | 85.7% | 4.20 |
| JAGUARS | Jets | 20.5% | 637.5 | 86.4% | 2.78 |
| BEARS | Browns | 11.9% | 337.5 | 77.1% | 2.72 |
| TEXANS | Cardinals | 5.2% | 462.5 | 82.2% | 0.93 |
| SEAHAWKS | Colts | 1.5% | 812.5 | 89.0% | 0.16 |
| BUCCANEERS | Falcons | 1.0% | 205 | 67.2% | 0.31 |
| Panthers | SAINTS | 0.8% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.36 |
| COWBOYS | Vikings | 0.7% | 247.5 | 71.2% | 0.21 |
| STEELERS | Dolphins | 0.4% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 0.14 |
| GIANTS | Commanders | 0.2% | 125 | 55.6% | 0.08 |
| Ravens | BENGALS | 0.1% | 129 | 56.3% | 0.03 |
| Bills | PATRIOTS | 0.1% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.03 |
| CHIEFS | Chargers | 0.1% | 190 | 65.5% | 0.02 |
| RAMS | Lions | 0.1% | 225 | 69.2% | 0.03 |
| Packers | BRONCOS | 0.1% | 125 | 55.6% | 0.04 |
Home teams CAPITALIZED.
There is no pot-odds play this week, and likely won't be the rest of the way. For one, ownership percentages are becoming irrelevant. They're still somewhat informative, but your pool and whatever teams your competition has available are more important now. Whether there is a pot-odds play depends on your individual pool.
Four teams are double-digit favorites this week and another (Texans) is a 9.5-point favorite, which means plenty of Survivor options. However, there are two additional considerations this week:
1. Remaining schedules
2. Competitors' remaining teams
As mentioned last week, this is the time of year to look ahead. Check the remaining schedule of your available teams and find the four best matchups. For example, if you haven't used the Seahawks yet, this is the week (against the Colts) because their last three games are tough matchups.
Also check your competitors' remaining options. Gameplan which teams they might take in the coming weeks. If you think, for example, the Jaguars might be a popular pick in, say, Week 18, then make sure you have a good alternate that week. Easier said than done, of course, but schedules and available teams should at least inform your picks.
This week appears to be the best time to use the Seahawks, Bears, Panthers and Steelers. The remaining weeks likely will be close games for each. Of the teams below, the 49ers, Jaguars, Eagles, Texans and Buccaneers have favorable upcoming matchups, so they're worth saving.
Here are what look to be the best options the rest of the way:
Week 16 - Eagles (at Commanders), Bills (at Browns), Chiefs (at Titans), Texans (vs. Raiders), 49ers (at Colts)
Week 17 - Cowboys (at Commanders), Lions (at Vikings), Jaguars (at Colts), Patriots (at Jets), Buccaneers (at Dolphins), Rams (at Falcons), Bengals (vs. Cardinals)
Week 18 - Bills (vs. Jets), Chiefs (at Raiders), Eagles (vs. Commanders), Rams (vs. Cardinals) , Packers (at Vikings), Jaguars (vs. Titans), Texans (vs. Colts)
Next week has the fewest great options. So, consider that when picking this week.
We've used most of these teams, so here's what we're looking at:
Week 15 - Bears (vs. Browns)
Week 16 - TBD; the best options (Eagles, Bills, Chiefs, Texans, 49ers) have been used.
Week 17 - Jaguars (at Colts), Cowboys (at Commanders), Bengals (vs. Cardinals)
Week 18 - Jaguars (vs. Titans), Cowboys (at Giants)
We can, of course, hash it out in the comments if need be (last week was fun; also fun to know who's still alive). Let's hear it.
Picks are in order of preference.
MY PICKS
Seattle Seahawks (vs. Colts)
Remember what Seattle did to Vikings rookie Max Brosmer in his first start? Something similar is likely to happen no matter who the Colts start — rookie Riley Leonard, fourth-string Brett Rypien or 44-year-old Philip Rivers. Leonard will make his starting debut unless a sprained knee keeps him out. In that case, it would be Rypien, who has taken three snaps since a Week 9 emergency start for the Rams in 2023, or Rivers, who hasn't played in five years. On defense, Sauce Gardner could miss another game with a calf injury. The Seahawks next play the Rams, Panthers and 49ers. The only option is the Panthers, but that's at Carolina and there are better Survivor picks that week. This is it for the Seahawks.
Chicago Bears (vs. Browns)
The Browns somehow let the Titans score 31 points last week. Maybe they'll rebound a bit against the Bears, but likely not enough to win. Plus, they're beat up on the offensive line. Chicago is coming off a tough loss at Green Bay and no doubt is looking to take its anger out on the Browns. If Tony Pollard ran for a career high (161) against the Browns, what is Chicago's two-headed monster running game going to do? Myles Garrett and the Browns' pass rush might be neutralized against Caleb Williams, who is highly adept at scrambling out of sacks (Micah Parsons had none last week on eight pressures; his biggest responsibility was setting the edge to keep Williams from scrambling for big gains. Garrett likely will do similar.) And its defense likely will add to its league-leading interception total against Shedeur Sanders. The Bears have the Bills, Steelers and Bengals left. None is a good Survivor option. This is the week to use the Bears.
Carolina Panthers (at Saints)
The Saints played the role of Survivor killer last week, beating the highly popular Buccaneers. Doubtful they can do that two weeks in row. They're not good. The Panthers have a division title in their sights (which would be incredible after what they've produced the last couple years). The Saints beat the Panthers earlier this season; expect the Panthers to repay them here coming off a bye. Carolina plays the Buccaneers twice and the Seahawks in Week 17. This is the week to use the Panthers.
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Dolphins)
The Steelers impressed in a win against the Ravens last week, but this is an inconsistent team that could easily turn in a clunker against the Dolphins. However, the Dolphins likely will be extremely uncomfortable on a cold Monday night (forecast: 21 degrees) and De'Von Achane, their only weapon, has a rib injury and is uncertain to play. Pittsburgh has the Lions, Browns and Ravens the last three weeks. This is the safest spot.
San Francisco 49ers (vs. Titans)
The Titans upset the Browns last week, and it is highly unlikely that they have two upsets in a row in them. The 49ers have won three in a row (albeit against three bad teams) and had a bye last week. San Francisco has the Colts, Bears and Seahawks left. Week 16 vs. the Colts is the only viable option. Week 16 also appears to be a particularly tough Survivor week, so if the 49ers are still available, save them for next week.
Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Raiders)
The Raiders played the Broncos fairly tough last week but still lost their seventh in a row. The Eagles are in a tailspin, having lost three consecutive. This should pull them out of it. Philadelphia has two games left against the Commanders sandwiched around the Bills. Both Commanders games are good Survivor options, though it's possible in Week 18 the Eagles have nothing to play for (but probably not likely). Division games aren't always the best Survivor options, but Week 16 should at least be good for the Eagles.
Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Jets)
The Jets just got whipped by the Dolphins and now might be down to third-string rookie Brady Cook at QB. Good luck. Winners of four in row and five of six, the Jags are playing well, especially on defense, which has allowed less than 20 points in each game of the winning streak. They face the Broncos, Colts and Titans the rest of the way. Weeks 17 and 18 likely will be must wins for the division, which makes both good fantasy options, in addition to being against bad teams.
Houston Texans (vs. Cardinals)
After a couple close losses, the Cardinals got blown out last week by the Rams. The Texans have allowed more than 20 points once this season, and that was a win (against the Jaguars). Houston is playing for a division title and should handle the Cardinals, who are just running out the clock on the season. The Texans have the Raiders, Chargers and Colts left. Week 16 and Week 18 are good Survivor options. The Texans might be the best choice on the board Week 16, considering your likely remaining options. If so, don't waste Houston this week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Falcons)
Losing to the Saints last week should have the Buccaneers' full attention. Tampa Bay is tied atop the NFC South with the Panthers and pretty much has to win this division game. The Bucs aren't playing well, losing four of their last five, but Mike Evans could return this week, which would give a needed boost. The Falcons got steamrolled by the Seahawks in the second half last week. While they're just playing out the schedule after losing seven of their last eight, they would love to play spoiler to their rival. Tampa Bay might have a better matchup Week 17 at the Dolphins in what will be a must win.
NOTABLE OMISSION
Going by Vegas odds, perhaps the Cowboys (vs. Vikings) are a notable omission. None of the remaining matchups are particularly good for Survivor this week.
